Currently, snow sensors close to the JMT are tracking equal to or exceeding 2017, and for the few with data back to the winter of 82/83 they are general equal. Big start to winter!
The thing that made 2017, 2019, 1983, 2011 etc really exceptional was the sustained snowfall through March, where snow pack generally peaked. So the real test this winter will be if this craziness keeps up (or even reverts to a less intense, more normal snowfall pattern), for two more months.
If that happens, it could set usual spring schedules back by 4-6 weeks and July could look like a usual June with snow and water everywhere, and the peak melt off occurring well into July, making hazardous creek crossing conditions, and steep snow hazards on passes and around lakes. July 2017 was a lot like that, and August hikers that year said there was still lots of lingering snow at high elevations.?
If things really dry up, given that the snow pack in most places is already equal to the April 1 average (2.5 months early), you could still probably expect more-than-usual snow in July, but when it starts to melt it melts really fast so it might be muddy, wet and buggy, but otherwise fine for hiking.
But of course, this is all crystal ball gazing¡
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On 13 Jan 2023, at 1:51 pm, Curt Kinchen <ptcurt@...> wrote:
?
Yes, it is a bit too early to tell.? It's not the snowpack percentage as of this date that you want to look at, but rather April 1st.? ?That comparison, especially as we get get closer to it, will give a much better idea.??
Take a look at this page and look at the 1983 winter you are recalling, as well as some of the other big years like 2017 and look at the trends.
For sure, it is ahead of both those high snow level years, but if there isn't any late spring snowfall and the temperatures warm early, it will change what July and August will look like.? That said, at this point I would anticipate something like the summer of 2017 with snow covered passes in early August.
On Thu, Jan 12, 2023, 6:29 PM Derek Koonce <
derek@...> wrote:
Waayy too early to predict. It is predicted to settle down at the
end of the month, but the future still is not known.
I use OpenSummit for my hiking weather app. It gives snow pack
information and weather information for mountain peaks. During the
winter I use the OpenSnow to learn about the weather rolling
through. Quite interesting read these last couple of weeks.
Two Dogs
On 1/12/2023 15:27, debra wrote:
Saw today¡¯s Sierra snowpack data - as of today the Southern Sierra
snowpack is 257% of normal. I grew up in California and can¡¯t
remember another January like this except maybe in the early 80s
sometime. Any thoughts on what those southern passes will look
like in July and August, or is it really too early to predict?
Lange Jorstad