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The models this morning have come much closer together and while uncertainty continues, a Monday-Tuesday winter storm for southeast Texas is now increasingly likely. A strong mid/upper level disturbance is now expected to approach Texas from the southwest on Sunday. Meanwhile a surface trough or low will likely develop off the coast near Brownsville and the gradient between the building arctic high to the north and the pressure falls over the Gulf will cause north and northeast winds to increase. This should result in enough lift, moisture and convergence to produce precipitation--especially south of IH10. The increasing moisture is expected to surge northward with both moisture and lift maximizing Monday night into Tuesday as the trough pushes into west Texas. From Monday night into Tuesday precipitation chances range from 30-40 percent in the Piney Woods and far northern counties to near 70 at the coast. And, given the expected mostly subfreezing vertical temperature profile, the chance of this precipitation falling as snow continues to increase. While snow is increasingly likely, numerous factors will be at play in determining how much. For example, there will be more precipitation if the approaching trough moves slowly and less if it is faster moving. And there are many issues of microphysics that influence snow production. The latest GFS run has gotten very bullish on snowfall totals and is forecasting a 10 inch accumulation in Harris County tapering off to 4-5 inches in the northern counties. The ECMWF expects 3-4 inches to fall around Houston tapering off to around a half inch in the northern-most part of southeast Texas. The Canadian gives the southern counties 5-8 inches and forecasts 8-9 in the northern counties while the Icon says around 3 inches in the Houston area, up to 5 in the northern counties, and a sharp cutoff to nothing generally south of Houston. Obviously, at this point in time, one can only say that some snow is increasingly likely somewhere in southeast Texas from Monday night into Tuesday. Regarding temperatures, a hard freeze is likely north and west of Houston both Sunday and Monday nights and by Tuesday night, hard freezing temperatures may drop all the way to the coast. That will depend on how much snow falls and doesn't melt. For the remainder of the week, the cold temperatures are expected to gradually modify. Jim Robinson, W5ZYX Get BlueMail for Desktop

The arctic cold front remains on tap to reach southeast Texas on Saturday but probably won't be immediately noticeable, other than the northerly wind, because the cold air is trailing several hours behind the surface front. What happens next, other than the certainty that we are going to have cold weather most of next week, is high uncertainty regarding precipitation. The latest GFS runs, in fact, are less cold than they had been and have a lower chance of precipitation. The ECMWF is also drier but continues to show favorable conditions for snow all the way to the coast. The Canadian model is forecasting significant ice and snow across our entire region, and the German ICON has significant snow all the way from southeast Texas to the Florida Panhandle. The model ensemble forecasts still lean toward southeast Texas receiving at least light wintry precipitation and NWS has opted to keep a chance in the forecast for most of southeast Texas Monday night into Tuesday. Too much uncertainty remains to talk about amounts with any confidence. Regarding temperatures, the northern counties of southeast Texas will drop into the 20s by Saturday night with Sunday highs likely rebounding to the 40s under daytime sunny skies. By Sunday night, lows are expected to range from the low/mid 20s in the northern counties to the low/mid 30s in the southern counties. The ECMWF model suggests that in the northern part of southeast Texas we will see hard freeze conditions Sunday, Monday and Tuesday nights but warm above freezing for both Wednesday and Thursday nights before dropping into the freezing range again on Friday night. GFS, which is a little warmer, would have Tuesday night above freezing with the next freeze holding off until Friday night. The Canadian model keeps every night next week below freezing. The best advice is to continue tracking the daily NWS forecasts. By Monday the cold arctic air will continue surging southward and bring a hard freeze to most of southeast Texas north of IH10 for both Monday and Tuesday nights. Jim Robinson, W5ZYX

The latest run of the GFS model has snow developing across inland portions of southeast Texas on Monday and, in some cases, continuing into Tuesday night. Whether this occurs will depend on a number of factors including air temperatures and development of a coastal low. Stay tuned for updates. Jim Robinson, W5ZYX Get BlueMail for Desktop

The models are coming into better agreement that our weather is going to turn cold--in fact, very cold--from this weekend into next week. The initial cold front is expected to reach the Brazos Valley by early Saturday morning and move offshore by afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to accompany the front and low temperatures Sunday morning across southeast Texas are forecast to be in the 30s north to the 40s closer to the coast. The initial front will be followed by a strong arctic outbreak which will bring very cold conditions to southeast Texas. Current model runs (which are subject to change) are forecasting lows on Monday and Tuesday mornings from the 20s inland to lower 30s along the coast. Hard freeze conditions (24 or lower) are likely north of IH-10 and particularly so across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. By Tuesday morning, wind chills across the northern counties of southeast Texas (Brazos/Madison/Houston) may fall into single digits. The very cold overnight low temperatures are expected to continue nightly through Friday. Forecasters are also monitoring the possibility of a coastal trough forming Monday near the mouth of the Rio Grande which might bring a chance of wintry precipitation into the forecast. Will update as the model solutions evolve. Jim Robinson, W5ZYX

Yes, that is a DCS code. We do not use CTCSS. The repeater is FM not digital although it uses a digital code for access. Most radios in the past 10 years or so have DCS capability. What radio do you have? I am forwarding this to our groups.io. Maybe someone else can help with your radio. Lee KV5M

While another outbreak of polar air will bring unseasonably colder temperatures to the area by the weekend, neither the ECMWF nor GFS models are forecasting any frozen precipitation for southeast Texas. ECMWF, however, is colder with next week's temperatures than is the GFS. For guidance purposes, the latest tabular runs of the two models are attached. Updates will be provided as the weekend approaches. Jim Robinson, W5ZYX Get BlueMail for Desktop

WCARG Meeting When: Saturday, January 11, 2025 9:00am to 10:30am (UTC-06:00) America/Chicago Where: Walker County Storm Sherlter, 445 TX-75 Huntsville, TX GPS: 30.73614, -95.58279 Organizer: WCARG [email protected] View Event Description: Monthly meeting of the Walker County Amateur Radio Group followed by amateur radio license testing

I am forwarding the weather update message for local governments that was sent by NWS this morning. It provides a comprehensive overview of the evolving rain situation for Thursday and Friday/ Jim Robinson, W5ZYX Get BlueMail for Desktop -------- Original Message -------- Subject: Fw: NWS Update: Increasing rain chances Thu-Fri | Hazardous Marine Conditions Persist Date: Wed Jan 08 2025 08:48:02 GMT-0600 (Central Standard Time) From: "Robinson, Jim (Office of Management and Budget)" <jim.robinson@...> To: "Jim Robinson" <robinson.jimw@...> From: NWS Houston - NOAA Service Account <nws.houston@...> Sent: Wednesday, January 8, 2025 7:19 AM Subject: NWS Update: Increasing rain chances Thu-Fri | Hazardous Marine Conditions Persist Good morning, Overview Rain chances will increase Thursday into Thursday night as a low pressure system moves across the upper Texas coast. There is a limited potential for wintry weather over the Piney Woods region early Thursday morning. Expect high rain chances late Thursday as the low moves along our coastal waters. Rain will taper off Friday morning as the low exits to our east. A colder airmass will filter across Southeast TX in the wake of the low and may result in below freezing temperatures Saturday morning for most of the local area. Upcoming Rain Chances & Excessive Rainfall Outlook A low pressure system is forecast to develop off the mid/south Texas coast late today and then track across the upper Texas coastal waters on Thursday. Look for precipitation to overspread the area Thursday morning into Friday morning as this occurs. Rainfall can be moderate to heavy at times and could lead to minor flooding in streets and low lying areas. It may also result in minor rises in creeks and bayous. Winter Weather There is still some potential for wintry weather early Thursday morning, mainly over the Piney Woods area. However, the onset of the rainfall may not occur until around sunrise Thursday and temperatures by then may be warm enough to suppress the development of wintry precipitation. Bottom line: Although the chance of wintry precipitation has decreased, there is still a non-zero chance for portions of the Piney Woods. Stay tuned for additional forecast updates. Point-forecast information can be found by clicking on this link. Cold Weather Sub-freezing temperatures and frigid wind chills are expected Friday night into Saturday morning. Marine A Low Water Advisory for Galveston Bay and a Small Craft Advisory for all the waters continue in effect this morning due to moderate to occasionally strong northeast winds and elevated seas. Moderate winds will prevail this afternoon through Thursday morning. Winds will strengthen and turn east Thursday as a low pressure system tracks into the Upper TX Coast. Small Craft Advisories will be likely. Wind gusts could reach Gale strength at times. Rough bay waters and seas of 7-11ft can be expected. Strong offshore winds and elevated seas will persist Friday. Abnormally low tides, in particular during the low tide period, may continue for the rest of the work week. Resources NWS Houston Galveston Phone Numbers: (281) 337-5074 ext. 232 or ext. 234 NWS Houston/Galveston Webpage: www.weather.gov/houston National Hurricane Center Webpage: www.hurricanes.gov Hourly Forecasts (Click Your Location) West Gulf River Forecast Center Webpage: www.weather.gov/wgrfc NWPS Webpage

Jason N2TXS Hampton <im.n2txs@...> added folder /Jason Hampton/WCARG Certificate Templates Description: Team, these are the certificate templates. They are open for the club to use. Keep in mind, the files are "read only". After you download them to you computer, you will be prompted to "Save As" something else. Therefore keeping the original template file in tack. If you have any questions or concerns let me know.

The winter weather forecast for southeast Texas continues to evolve and while it will remain on the chilly side for the next several days, actual lows aren't expected to reach the hard freeze level. The threat of frozen precipitation has also ended for most of southeast Texas with the exception of Madison and Houston counties where a very low chance with little or no accumulation remains later in the week. NWS Houston-Galveston conducted a very informative 2 PM briefing for local government and the entire session is available for viewing at this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yERkAontFAg There are still considerable model differences between GFS and the ECMWF for rainfall and the briefing helps put our chances in better perspective. Jim Robinson, W5ZYX Get BlueMail for Desktop

Its looking more and more like things are going to be cold and wet across southeast Texas beginning Wednesday night into Thursday night as a low pressure disturbance moves across the area from the Gulf. Both GFS and ECMWF are painting rainfall totals of 1-3 inches which much of the precip falling Thursday and Thursday night. While the heaviest rainfall should be closer to the coast, both models are forecasting greater than an inch for Walker and Madison counties. The NWS is closely monitoring the possible track of a freezing/frozen precipitation shield that is expected to be moving across central Texas Wednesday night into Thursday. Current thinking is that the area from Brazos County into Madison and Houston counties could see some freezing rain or possible sleet/snow during that period and the latest forecasts are advertising a possible wintery mix across that area Wednesday night/early Thursday. The NBM model is giving College Station a 20-25% freezing rain chance with this increasing to a 45-50% chance around Crocket. The potential for wintry weather is greater in the counties north of OSR. Jim Robinson, W5ZYX

To give you a weather insight for the next 10 days I've attached the 06Z GFS tabular output for Huntsville. ECMWF is in general agreement as to periods of rain but isn't forecasting any snow this week while GFS hints at a trace. Best guess is we won't see any but its not out of the question. Jim Robinson, W5ZYX Get BlueMail for Desktop

The strong cold front will reach Walker County by noon and be near or off the coast by sunset. There will be a chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms out ahead of and along the cold front capable of producing strong wind gusts or a brief tornado. The arriving polar air will result in a dramatic temperature change. Cold weather will be around much of this week. In addition, a low pressure disturbance will move through the area during midweek and bring precipitation to southeast Texas. While we are most likely to see only rain from the disturbance, forecasters at the NWS Houston-Galveston office note there is a "non-zero" chance for a wintry mix in the northern counties including Walker. Otherwise, low temperatures this week will fall generally into the 20s and one or more nights with a hard freeze are likely. The official forecast for Walker County follows: Today: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. Temperature rising to near 71 by noon, then falling to around 53 during the remainder of the day. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 26. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Monday: Sunny, with a high near 43. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 23. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 47. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Wednesday Night: A slight chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Thursday: A chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet before noon, then rain showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51. NWS has decided to use new advisory language this year. The revised definitions follow: - Freeze Warning: Unlike previous years, the Hard Freeze and Freeze Warnings have been combined into one Freeze Warning product. We still will generally only issue a Freeze Warning once per county each winter for when temperatures are 32F for at least 2 consecutive hours. We have already issue a Freeze Warning for Montgomery County northwards this season. However, we will issue a Freeze Warning again for when Hard Freezing conditions (when temperatures fall to 24F for at least 2 consecutive hours) are expected. Freeze Warnings for Hard Freezing conditions will be issued as many times as needed through the winter season. - Cold Weather Advisory: This replaces the old Wind Chill Advisory, and will be issued when temperatures or wind chills fall are 25F for Harris County and counties southwards, and 20F northwards to Houston County. (see www.weather.gov/hgx/WWA_criteria for a visual representation of the criteria) - Extreme Cold Watch or Warning: These replace the old Wind Chill Watch or Warning products, and will be issued when temperatures or wind chills 15F for Harris County and counties southwards, and 10F northwards to Houston County. (see www.weather.gov/hgx/WWA_criteria for a visual representation of the criteria) Jim Robinson, W5ZYX

Back in September 2024, Jason/N2TXS and I set out to understand what DMR 'digital mobile radio' was and how we could get on the air using this mode. Linked below is a compilation of our learnings to becoming radio active with DMR. For those interested in learning more or considering venturing into using this radio mode - please reach out to either Jason to myself. Thanks, Rick Link to presentation