The coldest air of the season is still on its way to southeast TX starting Sunday and continuing into Thursday/Friday.? There also remains a decent chance to see some snow or freezing rain/sleet
across much if not all of the area as cold air is reinforced early in the week and an upper level weather system moves across.
What Has Changed Since Previous Email?
- The initial cold front will move across southeast?TX earlier on Saturday.
- Snow/Freezing Rain/Sleet chances remain about the same, if not a bit higher than yesterday's forecast.
Overview
A leading cold front will move quickly across southeast?Texas on Saturday with brisk northerly winds and temperatures moderating in the 50s, before dropping overnight.?
We should see a return to freezing temperatures roughly from Columbus to Livingston and areas north Sunday morning. This cold air will be reinforced Sunday night with the real arctic air blasting to the region dropping temperatures considerably into Monday.?
This will set the stage for perhaps 4 consecutive nights of sub-freezing temperatures into Thursday morning, with a hard freeze likely for multiple nights for most spots north of I10.? Some sites from the upper Brazos Valley into the Piney Woods could remain
below freezing from Monday afternoon into Wednesday.? Most other locations should get above freezing each day for at least a few hours.??Wind?chills each night/morning will
also be quite cold and will eventually require Cold Weather Advisories as we get nearer the event.
Another complicating, and less certain, aspect of this arctic intrusion for our area is the potential for snow and freezing rain/sleet.? There is still a lot to
play out in the next 5-6 days, so this could easily change.? However, forecasts remain fairly persistent in developing a mix of winter precipitation from late Monday into early Thursday.? Details remain a mess right now to pin down, as we could see a switch
over between liquid?to freezing to frozen precipitation a couple of times over the 2-3 day window.? Although with the magnitude of the cold, refreezing of roads each night could be a major concern Tuesday even into Thursday.??
This is still pretty far out into the future, so details will certainly change in the coming days.? Please continue to monitor and we will maintain daily briefs the rest of this week, and at least twice a day briefs over the weekend.
Alternate Possibilities
The upper level disturbance and associated surface low over the Gulf of Mexico could end up tracking much farther south and pull most of the rain/snow with it.? Or, the system could take a bee-line
for southeast TX and bring heavier amounts of snow or ice.? Current forecasts are kind of in between these two extremes.
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