For the
last several days the NHC has been watching a disturbed area in the
southwestern Caribbean generally associated with the seasonal central
American gyre.? While there is a 40% chance that this area will
develop into a tropical system over the next seven days, all of the major
models are in agreement that whatever happens to develop, once in the Gulf
of Mexico, will slowly move toward the west coast of Florida and at least
two of the most reliable models are forecasting a significant
hurricane.? While there is high model agreement on a Florida landfall,
which is? unusual this far out in time, the date spread in the models
ranges from October 7-11.
The chance of whatever develops affecting the Texas coast are
low and the climatology record shows that late September and October
tropical systems recurve more sharply in the Gulf and rarely reach the
coast west of the Mississippi River.? However, if I lived in Florida,
I would be quite concerned.
Jim Robinson, W5ZYX
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 1
2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the
Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
Tropical?
Storm Kirk, located
over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
1. Northwestern
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the
southwestern?
Caribbean Sea are
associated with a trough of low pressure.?
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development
of?
this system, and a tropical
depression could form towards the end of?
this week or this weekend while it moves generally
northwestward?
over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico.?
Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
continue to monitor the?
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10
percent.?
* Formation chance
through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
2. Eastern Tropical
Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and
thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in?
association with a broad area of low pressure
located a few hundred?
miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.?
Environmental?
conditions
appear conducive for further development of this system,?
and a tropical depression is expected to form
during the next?
couple of days
while it moves slowly westward over the eastern?
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80
percent.?
* Formation chance
through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Papin/Mora
