Eric, I would expect the transformer to get at least quite warm. The explanations say eventually up to the Curie-point of the core material, but I remember still touchable outside temperatures of my failing 491. That's my only own experience with failing epoxy.
When the screen grid voltage doesn't rise dramatically it's a sign that no excessive power is lost in the -4 kV HV circuits. (But it's still no guarantee that the -4 kV itself is correct since resistance ratio in the feedback circuit might drift when resistor temperatures rise).
Albert
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But I'm wondering, wouldn't the HV transformer get really hot if it was the problem?
