Hello Dick.
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I suspect that you're looking at S scale too much and projecting it's situation onto model railroading in general.
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Almost 3 weeks ago there was a train meet/show in New England that is referred to as?the "Amherst Show". From the reports that ran in one of the MRH (Model Railroad Hobbyist) forums indicates it was the best attended show in years. Basically at times during the 2 day show?it was shoulder to shoulder (and the one posting was fussing because of the crowded conditions, this is myoptic view, IMHO)
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Further, within the "Railroad Prototype Modelers" meets, there is beginning to be?significant presense of younger modelers coming into the hobby.
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The segments that are hurting are those of the "traditional/nostalgic" type modeling that have depended on the Baby Boomers as their market for new products. Specifically, S scale and 3 rail. As we Baby Boomers pass on, we're not being replaced fast enough for S scale and 3-rail to?make gains. The mfg'ers see this demographic, thus Lionel taking steps to try to make inroads in the huge HO market that still exists. Scale Trains indicates they are going to try to make a go in S scale, but IMHO they will have an severe uphill struggle.
SO, yes, if you look at what is happening within S or even 3-rail, the future?looks bleak. However, if you look at the greater picture, model railroading is actually enjoying a resurgence.
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Model railroading is going to?exist in some form for our (the members of this list) emaining lifetimes.?
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The good news in this for me, is that should I end up in S Hi-Rail some years from now, it will be a buyers market because of the glut of product that is (or will be hitting hitting the market, and will continue to hit, as Boomers pass or sell off.
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Andre Ming
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