Event: WCARG Breakfast - Saturday, January 25, 2025
#cal-reminder
Reminder: WCARG Breakfast
When:
Saturday, January 25, 2025
9:00am to 10:00am
(UTC-06:00) America/Chicago
Where:
Denny's, 3016 11th St, Huntsville, TX 77340
Organizer:
WCARG
[email protected]
View Event
Description:
Walker County Amateur Radio Group Breakfast.? Anyone interested in ham radio, whether licensed or not, is invited.
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National Weather Service Houston Winter Storm Update (1/20/25)
I'm
forwarding the official NWS update issued just after 6 this
morning.
The GFS and ECMWF
model runs this morning are producing less snow than the runs of previous
days.? The Canadian GEM and German ICON continue to forecast snow
totals greater than the two primary models.? All, however, have the
greatest snow production south of IH10.
Jim Robinson, W5ZYX
From: NWS Houston - NOAA
Service Account <nws.houston@...>
Sent: Monday, January 20, 2025 6:03 AM
Subject: National Weather Service Houston Winter Storm Update
(1/20/25)
?
Good?morning,
Bottom Line
-Winter storm likely tonight into
Tuesday.
-Light scattered precipitation
possible after 6PM. More widespread precipitation expected after
midnight,?transitioning to mostly snow by morning. Areas near
Matagorda Bay may see more sleet than snow.?
-Heavy bands of snow are
likely Tuesday morning. Totals of 3-5 inches expected where these heavy
bands occur. Lighter amounts expected where banding does not
occur.?
-Exact
locations of snow bands will remain uncertain, potentially until they
begin. But the I-10 corridor to the coast has the best chance of
experiencing heavy bands of snow. This does NOT mean that
areas farther north have a zero chance of experiencing heavy
snow.?
-Hard Freeze likely Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, likely resulting
in icy road conditions through midday Wednesday.?
Resources
- NWS Houston Galveston
Phone Numbers:?(281) 337-5074 ext. 232?or ext. 234
- NWS Houston/Galveston
Webpage:??
- National Hurricane Center
Webpage:
- (Click Your Location)
- West Gulf River Forecast
Center Webpage:??
If you
have any additional questions, please feel free to contact our office at
the phone numbers listed in the?Resources?section
above.
Cameron Self and Sean
Luchs
Forecasters
National Weather Service - Houston/Galveston,
TX
??
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[W5SC] Silent Key- Estate Sale- Mark your calendar Jan 30-31
This is from the San Antonio Radio Club.?
Catch you on the air,
Jason Hampton
-Freedom Isn't Free
830-992-1334
Texas Patriots Room: Wires-X 60755 or YSF 60755
Sent from an Android mobile device. Please excuse brevity and disregard any spelling or grammatical errors.
---------- Forwarded message --------- From: Bill Craft via <billc851=[email protected]>Date: Sun, Jan 19, 2025, 19:02 Subject: [Special] [W5SC] Silent Key- Estate Sale- Mark your calendar Jan 30-31 To: < [email protected]> --
Catch you on the air,
Jason Hampton
*Freedom Isn't Free
N2TXS, WXCT237
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? ? You got this! ?Best of luck!
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On Jan 17, 2025, at 9:49?AM, Stephen KJ5YN Farlow <kj5yn@...> wrote:
? Had first class online via Zoom Thursday eve.The instructor is actually one of 2 people devising the question pools. I hope this helps me get my Extra, even though I have an Advanced class license. My biggest struggle here is remebering evrything.
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repetition is your friend, it sticks eventually! It is a great thing that you are pursuing this!
On Friday, January 17, 2025 at 09:49:55 AM CST, Stephen Farlow <kj5yn@...> wrote:
Had first class online via Zoom Thursday eve.The instructor is actually one of 2 people devising the question pools. I hope this helps me get my Extra, even though I have an Advanced class license. My biggest struggle here is remebering evrything.
|
Had first class online via Zoom Thursday eve.The instructor is actually one of 2 people devising the question pools. I hope this helps me get my Extra, even though I have an Advanced class license. My biggest struggle here is remebering evrything.
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Winter Storm Becoming More Likely in SE Texas
The?models?this?morning?have?come?much?closer?together?and?while?uncertainty?continues,?a?Monday-Tuesday?winter?storm?for?southeast?Texas?is?now?increasingly?likely.
A?strong?mid/upper?level?disturbance?is?now?expected?to?approach?Texas?from?the?southwest?on?Sunday.??Meanwhile?a?surface?trough?or?low?will?likely?develop?off?the?coast?near?Brownsville?and?the?gradient?between?the?building?arctic?high?to?the?north?and?the?pressure?falls?over?the?Gulf?will?cause?north?and?northeast?winds?to?increase.??This?should?result?in?enough?lift,?moisture?and?convergence?to?produce?precipitation--especially?south?of?IH10.
The?increasing?moisture?is?expected?to?surge?northward?with?both?moisture?and?lift?maximizing?Monday?night?into?Tuesday?as?the?trough?pushes?into?west?Texas.??From?Monday?night?into?Tuesday?precipitation?chances?range?from?30-40?percent?in?the?Piney?Woods?and?far?northern?counties?to?near?70?at?the?coast.??And,?given?the?expected?mostly?subfreezing?vertical?temperature?profile,?the?chance?of?this?precipitation?falling?as?snow?continues?to?increase.?
While?snow?is?increasingly?likely,?numerous?factors?will?be?at?play?in?determining?how?much.??For?example,?there?will?be?more?precipitation?if?the?approaching?trough?moves?slowly?and?less?if?it?is?faster?moving.??And?there?are?many?issues?of?microphysics?that?influence?snow?production.
The?latest?GFS?run?has?gotten?very?bullish?on?snowfall?totals?and?is?forecasting?a?10?inch?accumulation?in?Harris?County?tapering?off?to?4-5?inches?in?the?northern?counties.???The?ECMWF?expects?3-4?inches?to?fall?around?Houston?tapering?off?to?around?a?half?inch?in?the?northern-most?part?of?southeast?Texas.??The?Canadian?gives?the?southern?counties?5-8?inches?and?forecasts?8-9?in?the?northern?counties?while?the?Icon?says?around?3?inches?in?the?Houston?area,?up?to?5?in?the?northern?counties,?and?a?sharp?cutoff?to?nothing?generally?south?of?Houston.
Obviously,?at?this?point?in?time,?one?can?only?say?that?some?snow?is?increasingly?likely?somewhere?in?southeast?Texas?from?Monday?night?into?Tuesday.
Regarding?temperatures,?a?hard?freeze?is?likely?north?and?west?of?Houston?both?Sunday?and?Monday?nights?and?by?Tuesday?night,?hard?freezing?temperatures?may?drop?all?the?way?to?the?coast.??That?will?depend?on?how?much?snow?falls?and?doesn't?melt.??For?the?remainder?of?the?week,?the?cold?temperatures?are?expected?to?gradually?modify.
Jim?Robinson,?W5ZYX
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Hard Freeze Remains Likely but Wintry Precip Still Uncertain
Significant model
inconsistency continues regarding the possibility of wintry precipitation
across southeast Texas Monday night into Tuesday but the risk of a hard
freeze continues--particularly north of IH10. The latest run of the GFS
model keeps the frozen precipitation risk down toward Houston and produces
none in the northern-most counties of southeast Texas.? ECMWF also
produces most of its wintry precipitation over the southern counties but
does extend some light coverage into the northern counties.? Then,
there's the Canadian that tries to kick out darn near 2 feet of snow
generally north of Walker county with a sharp cutoff to the south and the
German icon producing close to 3 inches over the northern counties.?
Just for fun I've attached the 12Z Canadian model image.
NWS this morning issued released the attached
hard freeze image which depicts current temperature forecast
thinking.
Jim Robinson, W5ZYX
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Wintry precipitation still uncertain for next week
The arctic cold front
remains on tap to reach southeast Texas on Saturday but probably won't be
immediately noticeable, other than the northerly wind, because the cold air
is trailing several hours behind the surface front.
What happens next, other than the certainty that
we are going to have cold weather most of next week, is high uncertainty
regarding precipitation.? The latest GFS runs, in fact, are less cold
than they had been and have a lower chance of precipitation.? The
ECMWF is also drier but continues to show favorable conditions for snow all
the way to the coast.? The Canadian model is forecasting significant
ice and snow across our entire region, and the German ICON has significant
snow all the way from southeast Texas to the Florida Panhandle.
The model ensemble forecasts still lean toward
southeast Texas receiving at least light wintry precipitation and NWS has
opted to keep a chance in the forecast for most of southeast Texas Monday
night into Tuesday.? Too much uncertainty remains to talk about
amounts with any confidence.
Regarding temperatures, the northern counties of
southeast Texas will drop into the 20s by Saturday night with Sunday highs
likely rebounding to the 40s under daytime sunny skies.? By Sunday
night, lows are expected to range from the low/mid 20s in the northern
counties to the low/mid 30s in the southern counties.
The ECMWF model suggests that in the northern
part of southeast Texas we will see hard freeze conditions Sunday, Monday
and Tuesday nights but warm above freezing for both Wednesday and Thursday
nights before dropping into the freezing range again on Friday night.?
GFS, which is a little warmer, would have Tuesday night above freezing with
the next freeze holding off until Friday night. The Canadian model keeps
every night next week below freezing.? The best advice is to continue
tracking the daily NWS forecasts.
By Monday the cold arctic air will continue
surging southward and bring a hard freeze to most of southeast Texas north
of IH10 for both Monday and Tuesday nights.
Jim Robinson, W5ZYX
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NWS Houston Update- Winter weather and arctic air forecast for next week
Latest NWS thinking.
From: NWS Houston - NOAA Service Account <nws.houston@...>
Sent: Wednesday, January 15, 2025 2:23 PM
Subject: NWS Houston Update- Winter weather and arctic air forecast for next week
?
Bottom Line
The coldest air of the season is still on its way to southeast TX starting Sunday and continuing into Thursday/Friday.? There also remains a decent chance to see some snow or freezing rain/sleet
across much if not all of the area as cold air is reinforced early in the week and an upper level weather system moves across.
What Has Changed Since Previous Email?
- The initial cold front will move across southeast?TX earlier on Saturday.
- Snow/Freezing Rain/Sleet chances remain about the same, if not a bit higher than yesterday's forecast.
Overview
A leading cold front will move quickly across southeast?Texas on Saturday with brisk northerly winds and temperatures moderating in the 50s, before dropping overnight.?
We should see a return to freezing temperatures roughly from Columbus to Livingston and areas north Sunday morning. This cold air will be reinforced Sunday night with the real arctic air blasting to the region dropping temperatures considerably into Monday.?
This will set the stage for perhaps 4 consecutive nights of sub-freezing temperatures into Thursday morning, with a hard freeze likely for multiple nights for most spots north of I10.? Some sites from the upper Brazos Valley into the Piney Woods could remain
below freezing from Monday afternoon into Wednesday.? Most other locations should get above freezing each day for at least a few hours.??Wind?chills each night/morning will
also be quite cold and will eventually require Cold Weather Advisories as we get nearer the event.
Another complicating, and less certain, aspect of this arctic intrusion for our area is the potential for snow and freezing rain/sleet.? There is still a lot to
play out in the next 5-6 days, so this could easily change.? However, forecasts remain fairly persistent in developing a mix of winter precipitation from late Monday into early Thursday.? Details remain a mess right now to pin down, as we could see a switch
over between liquid?to freezing to frozen precipitation a couple of times over the 2-3 day window.? Although with the magnitude of the cold, refreezing of roads each night could be a major concern Tuesday even into Thursday.??
This is still pretty far out into the future, so details will certainly change in the coming days.? Please continue to monitor and we will maintain daily briefs the rest of this week, and at least twice a day briefs over the weekend.
Alternate Possibilities
The upper level disturbance and associated surface low over the Gulf of Mexico could end up tracking much farther south and pull most of the rain/snow with it.? Or, the system could take a bee-line
for southeast TX and bring heavier amounts of snow or ice.? Current forecasts are kind of in between these two extremes.
Forecast Graphics
Resources
- NWS Houston Galveston Phone Numbers:?(281) 337-5074 ext. 232?or ext. 234
- NWS Houston/Galveston Webpage:??
- National Hurricane Center Webpage:
- (Click Your Location)
- West Gulf River Forecast Center Webpage:??
If you have any additional questions, please feel free to contact our office at the phone numbers listed in the?Resources?section above.
Jeff Evans and Amaryllis Cotto
National Weather Service - Houston/Galveston, TX
??
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NWS Update: Much colder air and possible wintery precipitation early next week
I'm
forwarding this afternoon's update for local governments from NWS which
better depicts evolution of the coming blast of arctic air.
Jim Robinson, W5ZY
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From: NWS Houston - NOAA
Service Account <nws.houston@...>
Good afternoon.? The forecast is still trending much
colder to end the weekend and continuing well into next week as a series of
cold fronts move across the area.? The leading front
is still on tap to arrive Saturday afternoon and bring a return of
freezing temperatures Sunday morning generally from the Brazos Valley into
the Piney Woods.? However, a reinforcing surge of arctic air is set to
arrive Monday into Tuesday which looks to be
the coldest air of the season for southeast TX with hard freezes possible
down to I10, and maybe even occur closer to the coast.??
In addition to this arctic air intrusion, a weather system
may overspread the area and bring the possibility of frozen or freezing
precipitation late Monday into Tuesday.? While there
is greater confidence in the cold air forecast, the snow/sleet/freezing
rain potential is much less certain.? It is also quite possible this
weather system develops too far from the area to generate any precipitation
over southeast TX.
Given this is a full week out, expect the forecast will
evolve as we get closer to the event.??
Bottom Line
- Arctic air is heading towards the area late this
weekend into next week.
- Likely to see a return to freezing temperatures
perhaps as early as Sunday morning for portions of the area, with near or
below freezing temperatures likely area-wide (including
the coast) by Tuesday morning.
- Much less certainty regarding the potential to
see snow or freezing rain/sleet late Monday and/or
Tuesday.
- A lot will change with the forecast this week for
early next week, so please stay tuned!
Overview Graphics using current forecast
data
Forecast low temperatures Sunday
morning:
Forecast low temperatures Monday
morning:
25% chance to see low temps this cold Monday
morning:
Forecast low
temperatures Tuesday morning:
25% chance to
see low temps this cold Tuesday morning:
Chances of seeing light freezing rain Monday
and Tuesday:
Chances of
seeing light snow Monday and Tuesday:
Resources
- NWS Houston Galveston Phone
Numbers:?(281) 337-5074 ext. 232?or ext. 234
- NWS Houston/Galveston Webpage:??
- National Hurricane Center Webpage:
- (Click Your Location)
- West
Gulf River Forecast Center Webpage:??
If you have any additional
questions, please feel free to contact our office at the phone numbers
listed in the?Resources?section above.
Jeff Evans and Amaryllis?Cotto
National Weather Service - Houston/Galveston, TX
??
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The latest run of the GFS
model has snow developing across inland portions of southeast Texas on
Monday and, in some cases, continuing into Tuesday night.? Whether
this occurs will depend on a number of factors including air temperatures
and development of a coastal low.? Stay tuned for updates.
Jim Robinson, W5ZYX
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Hard Freeze Several Nights Next Week
The models are coming into
better agreement that our weather is going to turn cold--in fact, very
cold--from this weekend into next week.? The initial cold front is
expected to reach the Brazos Valley by early Saturday morning and move
offshore by afternoon.? Showers and thunderstorms are likely to
accompany the front and low temperatures Sunday morning across southeast
Texas are forecast to be in the 30s north to the 40s closer to the
coast.
The initial front will be followed by
a strong arctic outbreak which will bring very cold conditions to southeast
Texas. Current model runs (which are subject to change) are forecasting
lows on Monday and Tuesday mornings from the 20s inland to lower 30s along
the coast.? Hard freeze conditions (24 or lower) are likely north of
IH-10 and particularly so across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods.?
By Tuesday morning, wind chills across the northern counties of southeast
Texas (Brazos/Madison/Houston) may fall into single digits.? The very
cold overnight low temperatures are expected to continue nightly through
Friday.
Forecasters are also monitoring the
possibility of a coastal trough forming Monday near the mouth of the Rio
Grande which might bring a chance of wintry precipitation into the
forecast.??
Will update as the model solutions
evolve.
Jim Robinson, W5ZYX
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Re: Quick Question - Membership
How did you solve it?? Did your radio have DCS?
--
Lee KV5M
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Re: Quick Question - Membership
Problem solved - thanks all -
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On Jan 13, 2025, at 8:34?PM, Macka Murrah <mlmurrah@...> wrote:
? Yes, that is a DCS code. ?We do not use CTCSS. ?The repeater is FM not digital although it uses a digital code for access. ?Most radios in the past 10 years or so have DCS capability. ?What radio do you have?
I am forwarding this to our groups.io. ?Maybe someone else can help with your radio.
Lee
KV5M
On Jan 13, 2025, at 6:58 PM, Jon Bickford <jonbickford@...> wrote:
I’d like to become a member - was just on the ARES call and someone mentioned you have a net tonight at 7P - I got the frequency for the repeater - but not the CTSS tone. ?I see “D631/D631” listed…Is that a digital “tone”? ?I do not have a digital radio - wondering
if that repeater works on a standard tone frequency that someone can quickly get to me?
Thanks so much -?
KE5MIA - Jon
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Re: Quick Question - Membership
County Name / Address Call Sign Band Frequency (Mhz) Rx / Tx
Offset (hz) ** PL TCDT CTC/DCS Location
Walker Walker Cnty Huntsville Repeater W5HVL 2m 146.860 / 146.260
Minus D631N Huntsville
Tom WW5TOM
On 1/13/2025 8:34 PM, Lee KV5M Murrah
via groups.io wrote:
Yes, that is a DCS code. ?We do not use CTCSS. ?The repeater is FM
not digital although it uses a digital code for access. ?Most
radios in the past 10 years or so have DCS capability. ?What radio
do you have?
I am forwarding this to our groups.io. ?Maybe someone else
can help with your radio.
Lee
KV5M
I’d like to become a member - was just on the ARES
call and someone mentioned you have a net tonight at
7P - I got the frequency for the repeater - but not
the CTSS tone. ?I see “D631/D631” listed…Is that a
digital “tone”? ?I do not have a digital radio -
wondering if that repeater works on a standard tone
frequency that someone can quickly get to me?
Thanks so much -?
KE5MIA - Jon
--
Tom Newsom (ARO WW5TOM - WQZE415)
218 Victoria Ct
Montgomery, TX 77356
tom.newsom@...
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Re: Quick Question - Membership
Yes, that is a DCS code. ?We do not use CTCSS. ?The repeater is FM not digital although it uses a digital code for access. ?Most radios in the past 10 years or so have DCS capability. ?What radio do you have?
I am forwarding this to our groups.io. ?Maybe someone else can help with your radio.
Lee
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On Jan 13, 2025, at 6:58 PM, Jon Bickford <jonbickford@...> wrote:
I’d like to become a member - was just on the ARES call and someone mentioned you have a net tonight at 7P - I got the frequency for the repeater - but not the CTSS tone. ?I see “D631/D631” listed…Is that a digital “tone”? ?I do not have a digital radio - wondering
if that repeater works on a standard tone frequency that someone can quickly get to me?
Thanks so much -?
KE5MIA - Jon
|
While another outbreak of
polar air will bring unseasonably colder temperatures to the area by the
weekend, neither the ECMWF nor GFS models are forecasting any frozen
precipitation for southeast Texas.? ECMWF, however, is colder with
next week's temperatures than is the GFS.
For guidance purposes, the latest tabular runs of
the two models are attached.? Updates will be provided as the weekend
approaches.
Jim Robinson, W5ZYX
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Now: WCARG Meeting - Saturday, January 11, 2025
#cal-notice
WCARG Meeting
When:
Saturday, January 11, 2025
9:00am to 10:30am
(UTC-06:00) America/Chicago
Where:
Walker County Storm Sherlter, 445 TX-75 Huntsville, TX GPS: 30.73614, -95.58279
Organizer:
WCARG
[email protected]
View Event
Description:
Monthly meeting of the Walker County Amateur Radio Group followed by amateur radio license testing
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Locally Heavy Rain Likely Later Today & Tonight
Rain chances across
southeast Texas continue to increase this morning with locally heavy rain
forecast for later today--particularly along the coast.? An extremely
limited chance also continues to exist for mixed winter precipitation for
Madison, Houston and Trinity counties.
The heaviest rain should occur along the
coast as showers and storms become widespread this afternoon and peak this
evening between 6 PM and midnight.? NWS forecasters believe most
locations in southeast Texas can expect to see 2-3 inches of rainfall
through early Friday morning but a chance remains for locally higher
amounts exceeding 4 inches--particularly along the coast.
Two forecast images produced this morning
by the? NWS Houston-Galveston forecast office are
attached.
Jim Robinson, W5ZYX
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Jason N5DRI Hampton
Russ NR5US Cooper
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Lee Murrah
Tom WW5TOM
