Winter Storm Becoming More Likely in SE Texas
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The?models?this?morning?have?come?much?closer?together?and?while?uncertainty?continues,?a?Monday-Tuesday?winter?storm?for?southeast?Texas?is?now?increasingly?likely.
A?strong?mid/upper?level?disturbance?is?now?expected?to?approach?Texas?from?the?southwest?on?Sunday.??Meanwhile?a?surface?trough?or?low?will?likely?develop?off?the?coast?near?Brownsville?and?the?gradient?between?the?building?arctic?high?to?the?north?and?the?pressure?falls?over?the?Gulf?will?cause?north?and?northeast?winds?to?increase.??This?should?result?in?enough?lift,?moisture?and?convergence?to?produce?precipitation--especially?south?of?IH10.
The?increasing?moisture?is?expected?to?surge?northward?with?both?moisture?and?lift?maximizing?Monday?night?into?Tuesday?as?the?trough?pushes?into?west?Texas.??From?Monday?night?into?Tuesday?precipitation?chances?range?from?30-40?percent?in?the?Piney?Woods?and?far?northern?counties?to?near?70?at?the?coast.??And,?given?the?expected?mostly?subfreezing?vertical?temperature?profile,?the?chance?of?this?precipitation?falling?as?snow?continues?to?increase.?
While?snow?is?increasingly?likely,?numerous?factors?will?be?at?play?in?determining?how?much.??For?example,?there?will?be?more?precipitation?if?the?approaching?trough?moves?slowly?and?less?if?it?is?faster?moving.??And?there?are?many?issues?of?microphysics?that?influence?snow?production.
The?latest?GFS?run?has?gotten?very?bullish?on?snowfall?totals?and?is?forecasting?a?10?inch?accumulation?in?Harris?County?tapering?off?to?4-5?inches?in?the?northern?counties.???The?ECMWF?expects?3-4?inches?to?fall?around?Houston?tapering?off?to?around?a?half?inch?in?the?northern-most?part?of?southeast?Texas.??The?Canadian?gives?the?southern?counties?5-8?inches?and?forecasts?8-9?in?the?northern?counties?while?the?Icon?says?around?3?inches?in?the?Houston?area,?up?to?5?in?the?northern?counties,?and?a?sharp?cutoff?to?nothing?generally?south?of?Houston.
Obviously,?at?this?point?in?time,?one?can?only?say?that?some?snow?is?increasingly?likely?somewhere?in?southeast?Texas?from?Monday?night?into?Tuesday.
Regarding?temperatures,?a?hard?freeze?is?likely?north?and?west?of?Houston?both?Sunday?and?Monday?nights?and?by?Tuesday?night,?hard?freezing?temperatures?may?drop?all?the?way?to?the?coast.??That?will?depend?on?how?much?snow?falls?and?doesn't?melt.??For?the?remainder?of?the?week,?the?cold?temperatures?are?expected?to?gradually?modify.
Jim?Robinson,?W5ZYX
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