Re: Development likely but track uncertain
Definitely but I¡¯m somewhat optimistic that the center pass south of Galveston. I¡¯m planning on another update later today.
Jim, W5ZYX
Hey Jim, we must watch the weather forecast over the next several days. Jim KI5NC and Pat KJ5GKL ? ? ? The 7 day odds of disturbance 91L developing into Francine rose to 90% this morning in the NHC's 8 AM tropical weather outlook, with an 80% chance of development through 48 hours. Looking at the latest model runs, all four of the major global models now develop the system into a tropical storm.? ECMWF and GDPS are favoring a track that would bring the center very near or over the Houston-Galveston region and eventually into Louisiana while GFS and ICON are keeping the center off shore and ultimately moving it into Louisiana around Vermillion Bay. Looking specifically at southeast Texas, our weather on Tuesday and Wednesday will clearly depend on 91L's eventual track, and some effects could continue into Thursday depending on development.? As I have consistently noted, it is extremely difficult to forecast a track, timing and impact for a tropical system that has yet to even develop. This uncertainty also extends to forecasting possible rainfall coverage.? In a worst case scenario those parts of southeast Texas near the coast could potentially receive up to 12 inches of rain with 3-4 inches extending as far inland as the Brazos Valley.? On the other hand, in the low case scenario there might not be any rain north of the Houston metro area and perhaps not much more than an inch or so along the coast.? Given the track spread in the models, both of these scenarios are within the realm of possibility. In the meantime, we wait for Mother Nature to do her thing. The latest tropical weather outlook follows below. Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 Corrected category for the 48 hour probability for AL92 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association? with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf? of Mexico. This system is forecast to drift slowly northwestward? during the next couple of days, and environmental conditions are? expected to become conducive for additional development. A tropical? depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the? system moves generally northwestward and then northward near or? along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas through the middle of the? week. Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf Coast should? closely monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be? required for portions of the western Gulf coast later today or? tonight. An Air-Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is also? scheduled to investigate the system later today.? * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.? * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. 2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):? Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low? pressure over the central tropical Atlantic continue to show some? signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for? additional development of this system, and a tropical depression? could form while the system meanders over the central tropical? Atlantic through Monday and then begins to move generally westward? at around 10 mph through the rest of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.? * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. 3. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of? the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized? showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move very? little during the next couple of days until it potentially interacts? with a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of? Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions thereafter are expected? to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a? tropical depression could form by the middle or latter part of the? week while the system begins moving slowly west-northwestward.? * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
|
Re: Development likely but track uncertain
Hey Jim, we must watch the weather forecast over the next several days. Jim KI5NC and Pat KJ5GKL ? ?
toggle quoted message
Show quoted text
From: [email protected] <[email protected]> On Behalf Of Jim Robinson via groups.io
Sent: Sunday, September 8, 2024 10:04 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: [w5hvl] Development likely but track uncertain? The 7 day odds of disturbance 91L developing into Francine rose to 90% this morning in the NHC's 8 AM tropical weather outlook, with an 80% chance of development through 48 hours. Looking at the latest model runs, all four of the major global models now develop the system into a tropical storm.? ECMWF and GDPS are favoring a track that would bring the center very near or over the Houston-Galveston region and eventually into Louisiana while GFS and ICON are keeping the center off shore and ultimately moving it into Louisiana around Vermillion Bay. Looking specifically at southeast Texas, our weather on Tuesday and Wednesday will clearly depend on 91L's eventual track, and some effects could continue into Thursday depending on development.? As I have consistently noted, it is extremely difficult to forecast a track, timing and impact for a tropical system that has yet to even develop. This uncertainty also extends to forecasting possible rainfall coverage.? In a worst case scenario those parts of southeast Texas near the coast could potentially receive up to 12 inches of rain with 3-4 inches extending as far inland as the Brazos Valley.? On the other hand, in the low case scenario there might not be any rain north of the Houston metro area and perhaps not much more than an inch or so along the coast.? Given the track spread in the models, both of these scenarios are within the realm of possibility. In the meantime, we wait for Mother Nature to do her thing. The latest tropical weather outlook follows below. Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 Corrected category for the 48 hour probability for AL92 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association? with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf? of Mexico. This system is forecast to drift slowly northwestward? during the next couple of days, and environmental conditions are? expected to become conducive for additional development. A tropical? depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the? system moves generally northwestward and then northward near or? along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas through the middle of the? week. Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf Coast should? closely monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be? required for portions of the western Gulf coast later today or? tonight. An Air-Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is also? scheduled to investigate the system later today.? * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.? * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. 2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):? Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low? pressure over the central tropical Atlantic continue to show some? signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for? additional development of this system, and a tropical depression? could form while the system meanders over the central tropical? Atlantic through Monday and then begins to move generally westward? at around 10 mph through the rest of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.? * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. 3. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of? the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized? showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move very? little during the next couple of days until it potentially interacts? with a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of? Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions thereafter are expected? to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a? tropical depression could form by the middle or latter part of the? week while the system begins moving slowly west-northwestward.? * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
|
Development likely but track uncertain
The 7
day odds of disturbance 91L developing into Francine rose to 90% this
morning in the NHC's 8 AM tropical weather outlook, with an 80% chance of
development through 48 hours.
Looking at the latest model runs, all four of the major global
models now develop the system into a tropical storm.? ECMWF and GDPS
are favoring a track that would bring the center very near or over the
Houston-Galveston region and eventually into Louisiana while GFS and ICON
are keeping the center off shore and ultimately moving it into Louisiana
around Vermillion Bay.
Looking specifically at southeast Texas, our weather on Tuesday
and Wednesday will clearly depend on 91L's eventual track, and some effects
could continue into Thursday depending on development.? As I have
consistently noted, it is extremely difficult to forecast a track, timing
and impact for a tropical system that has yet to even develop.
This uncertainty also extends to
forecasting possible rainfall coverage.? In a worst case scenario
those parts of southeast Texas near the coast could potentially receive up
to 12 inches of rain with 3-4 inches extending as far inland as the Brazos
Valley.? On the other hand, in the low case scenario there might not
be any rain north of the Houston metro area and perhaps not much more than
an inch or so along the coast.? Given the track spread in the models,
both of these scenarios are within the realm of possibility.
In the meantime, we wait for Mother
Nature to do her thing.
The
latest tropical weather outlook follows below.
Jim Robinson, W5ZYX
Tropical Weather
Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center
Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024
Corrected category for the 48 hour
probability for AL92
For the
North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Western Gulf of Mexico
(AL91): Showers and thunderstorms have increased this
morning in association? with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf? of
Mexico. This system is forecast to drift slowly
northwestward? during the next couple of days,
and environmental conditions are? expected to
become conducive for additional development. A tropical? depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as
the? system moves generally northwestward and
then northward near or? along the Gulf coast of
Mexico and Texas through the middle of the? week.
Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf Coast
should? closely monitor the progress of this
system. Watches could be? required for portions
of the western Gulf coast later today or? tonight. An Air-Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
also? scheduled to investigate the system later
today.? * Formation chance through 48
hours...high...80 percent.? * Formation chance
through 7 days...high...90 percent.
2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):? Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of
low? pressure over the central tropical Atlantic
continue to show some? signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for? additional development of this system, and a tropical
depression? could form while the system meanders
over the central tropical? Atlantic through
Monday and then begins to move generally westward? at around 10 mph through the rest of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40
percent.? * Formation chance through 7
days...medium...60 percent.
3. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A
trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of? the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad
area of disorganized? showers and thunderstorms.
This system is expected to move very? little
during the next couple of days until it potentially
interacts? with a tropical wave that is forecast
to move off the west coast of? Africa on Monday.
Environmental conditions thereafter are expected? to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and
a? tropical depression could form by the middle
or latter part of the? week while the system
begins moving slowly west-northwestward.? *
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50
percent.
Forecaster Papin
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|
Introduction to Digital Radio Modes
Below linked presentation given by a fellow a TX-RACES member. David approved sharing this information and offered his email address if you would like to reach out to him with any questions.
David Eddleman <david.eddleman@...> wrote: Here's a link to the slides to the presentation I've given at the Cowtown Hamfest the last two years.? Here's a recorded presentation from the last showing:?
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Development Chance Now 80%
The NHC
has assigned designation AL91 to the low pressure area in the Bay of
Campeche and is giving the system a 60% chance of development over the next
48 hours and 80% over the next 7 days.
All four of the major global models now agree that development
will occur with solutions ranging from a tropical depression (ECMWF),
tropical storm (GDPS and ICON) and low end hurricane (GFS).? The 18Z
run of ECMWF only extends out 90 hours so isn't yet forecasting a landfall
but the other three models are trending toward the Beaumont-Lake Charles
area.? The NHC's HWFI 18Z model is forecasting landfall on the middle
Texas coast. While GFS seems to favor a landfall close to Lake Charles, it
does bring the center fairly close to Galveston.? The model solutions
will become clearer once a closed low actually develops.
We should begin feeling some affects
from the developing system by Tuesday as deep tropical moisture from the
approaching low gets closer to the Texas coast.? Rain chances will be
increasing and is likely to be heavy at times, especially along the
coast.? The WPC has placed a marginal risk (Level 1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall along the coast for Monday and Monday
night,?
The excessive
rainfall risk increases to slight (Level 2 of 4) on Tuesday for areas in
southeast Texas along and south of I-10.? For Wednesday, the slight
risk area is extended to include most of southeast Texas along and east of
the US-59/I-69 corridor with a marginal risk for the remainder the area
with the exception of the Brazos Valley.? Bear in mind that these
forecasts may change considerably as the system develops and the models get
a better handle on its future track. The 8 PM EDT tropical weather
outlook follows below.
Jim
Robinson,, W5ZYX
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National
Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Sep 7
2024
For the North
Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Western Gulf of Mexico
(AL91): An area of low pressure located over the Bay
of Campeche is? producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. This disturbance? is forecast
to drift slowly northward during the next several days? while it interacts with a frontal boundary. Environmental
conditions? are forecast to become more conducive
for development, and a? tropical depression is
likely to form while the system moves? generally
northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas? through the middle of next week. Interests along the western
Gulf of? Mexico coast should closely monitor the
progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48
hours...medium...60 percent.? * Formation chance
through 7 days...high...80 percent.
2. Central Tropical Atlantic:? Shower
and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low? pressure over the central tropical Atlantic has begun to show
signs? of organization. Gradual additional
development is possible while? the system
meanders over the central tropical Atlantic through? Monday and then moves generally westward at about 10 mph through
the? rest of next week. *
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.? * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50
percent.
3. Eastern and
Central Tropical Atlantic: Disorganized showers and
thunderstorms associated with a trough of? low
pressure are located several hundred miles southwest of? the Cabo Verde Islands. The disturbance is expected to move
very? little during the next few days until it
potentially interacts with? a tropical wave that
is forecast to move off the west coast of? Africa
by early Monday. Environmental conditions are expected to
be? favorable for gradual development of this
system, and a tropical? depression could form by
the middle or late portions of next week.? The
system is expected to begin moving slowly westward by the
end? of the week.?? * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0
percent. * Formation chance through 7
days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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|
Gulf storm formation this week becoming more likely
If the
GFS, Canadian, and German models are firing on all cylinders this morning
(which hasn't been the case with several tropical systems this season), we
can look for something ranging from a depression to a low end hurricane
visiting the upper Texas coast by perhaps Wednesday/early Thursday.?
Looking at the latest runs, only the 00Z Euro model hasn't jumped on the
tropical storm bandwagon.
A
tropical wave now located in the Bay of Campeche is forecast to interact
with yesterday's cold front, which made for a very pleasant Friday
afternoon and evening in southeast Texas.? The NHC believes that
environmental conditions in the Gulf will subsequently become favorable for
formation of a closed system and is forecasting a 40% chance of development
over the next 48 hours and a 60% chance through seven days.? The full
tropical outlook is included below.
If it forms, where will it make landfall?? The German Icon,
which may have been the best performing tropical model this season, tracks
a tropical storm up along the coast and brings it ashore near the mouth of
the Sabine around mid-day Wednesday.? The Canadian GDPS is a little
slower and slightly farther west with landfall, with its latest run showing
a tropical storm coming into Galveston Bay a little after daylight
Thursday.? The American GFS is in close track agreement with the Icon
and puts the center of a tropical storm at the mouth of the Sabine early
Thursday.? The latest ECMWF, while not developing its tropical
disturbance, still brings a glob of rain up along the coast in a manner
similar to the other models.
The bottom line is that at minimum, it should be wet in coastal
Texas during mid-week.
The
latest model runs actually reflect pretty good agreement over something
that has yet to form so future developments out in the Gulf definitely will
bear close watching and both timing and future track are still
evolving.
Jim Robinson,
W5ZYX
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800
AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024
For
the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Gulf of
Mexico: A tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche is
producing disorganized? showers and
thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is forecast to? develop while the wave interacts with a frontal boundary
during? the next couple of days. Environmental
conditions are forecast to? be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form? during the early or middle part of next week while the system
moves? slowly northwestward to northward over the
southwestern Gulf of? Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40
percent.? * Formation chance through 7
days...medium...60 percent.
2. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern and
central? tropical Atlantic is producing a broad
area of shower and? thunderstorm activity. A more
well-defined area of low pressure may? form
within this region during the next few days. Some slow? development of this system is possible while the
disturbance? meanders through the early part of
next week, then begins to move? west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during
the? middle to latter part of next
week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near
0 percent.? * Formation chance through 7
days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Bucci
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SARC Tailgate _ Encino Park Library
Team,
Details:
The SARC (San Antonio Radio Club) is having a
HAM Tailgate event on September 21st at the Encino Park Library,
from 8am - 1pm. If you have any questions or concerns please
reach out to: Doug N8IQT@...
Description
TAILGATE EVENT
Admission: Buyers FREE - Sellers-$5 donation
To support library programs
Commercial Vendors welcome
?
SARC 's third Tailgate event for those interested in selling or
buying some used ham radio gear and equipment. This is an
opportunity for sellers to bring their Ham gear, open their
trunks and let your stuff find a new home! Buyers can walk the
parking lot looking for good deals from local hams you can
trust.
Date and Time
Saturday, September 21st, 2024 08:00 - 13:00
(UTC-05:00) Central Time - Chicago
Location:
Encino Branch Library
2515 E Evans Rd
San Antonio, TX 78259
--
Catch you on the air,
Jason Hampton
*Freedom Isn't Free
N2TXS, WSCT237
830-992-1334
--
Catch you on the air,
Jason Hampton
*Freedom Isn't Free
N2TXS, WXCT237
|
Getting Started with WPSD & YSF
Team,
I got this from our sister club SADRC in San Antonio. It has some great information on the "new" WPSD software - for anyone wishing to learn about it.
--
Catch you on the air,
Jason Hampton
*Freedom Isn't Free
N2TXS, WSCT237
830-992-1334
--
Catch you on the air,
Jason Hampton
*Freedom Isn't Free
N2TXS, WXCT237
|
GMRS: Licensees comment on FCC's linked repeaters guidance
More info on the new Part 95 ruling for GMRS
repeaters.
Catch you on the air,
Jason Hampton
*Freedom Isn't Free
N2TXS, WSCT237
830-992-1334
-------- Forwarded Message --------
Many like the idea of removing linked GMRS
repeaters while others will fight to the end for them
? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?
?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?
|
|
|
|
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Forwarded
this email? for more
|
|
In
the three dozen years that has covered scanning, CB
radio and all hobby radio, no subject, no
article has generated as much comment and notice
as the information we posted almost two weeks
ago detailing how the on the
use of linked repeaters in the General Mobile
Radio Service.
No
sooner than our article was posted, the GMRS
community on social media ¡ª and on the air ¡ª
exploded with comments on the subtle change on the
FCC¡¯s website about how the agency considers
internet linking of repeaters to be in violation
of its Part 95 rules, which govern GMRS.
A
petition on change.org asks that the FCC change
its mind and allow the linking of GMRS repeaters.
| Image courtesy of change.org...
Unlock
this post for free, courtesy of Chuck Gysi | N2DUP.
A
subscription gets you:
 |
Subscriber-only
weekly posts and full archive to all articles |
|
|
 
--
Catch you on the air,
Jason Hampton
*Freedom Isn't Free
N2TXS, WXCT237
|
Lots of tropical model disagreement today
Today's
mid-day models are much more uncertain about the eventual track and fate of
the area of disturbed weather east of the Leeward Islands.? The 12Z
ECMWF doesn't appear to be developing it at all.? The 12Z GFS holds
off on development until the system reaches the southerly Yucatan,
ultimately moving a low end system across into the western part of the Bay
of Campeche.? From that point, GFS reverts back to a couple of
Saturday's solutions and drags a hurricane up along both the Mexican and
Texas coastlines until it comes ashore a little southwest of Houston on
Monday, September 16.? Not impossible but also not especially
likely.? The GFS 9/16 landfall image and today's 2 PM TWO image are
attached.
Given the almost
total disagreement among the models, the best course of action for now is
simply to keep an eye on the tropics.? NHC continues to give the
system east of the Leewards a 40% chance of development over the next seven
days.
Meanwhile the Gulf
disturbance south of the Texas coast is predicted to finally move inland
around Tuesday.? Development chances are a low 10%, but rain will
continue to be with us until at least Thursday thanks to an approaching
trough over northwest Mexico and the southwestern US and a larger trough
digging southward across the plains.? A frontal boundary at the
surface is expected to drift into our area by the middle of this coming
week.? As a result of all this, including the very moist tropical air
at the surface, rainfall chances in southeast Texas will continue on the
high side until Thursday nigh.? Some showers could be heavy with
temperatures slightly cooler.
Jim Robinson, W5ZYX
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National
Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
2024
For the North
Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Northwestern Gulf of
Mexico: A broad area of low pressure just offshore of
the upper Texas coast? continues to produce some
disorganized shower and thunderstorm? activity
near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana and over the? adjacent waters of the northwestern Gulf. This system is
expected to? meander near the coast for the next
couple of days, and some slow? development is
possible if it remains offshore. By Tuesday, the? system is forecast to move inland, and further development is
not? expected. Regardless, heavy rains could
cause some flash flooding? across portions of
coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast? during the next couple of days. * Formation
chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.? *
Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
2. Near the Lesser Antilles and
Caribbean Sea: Shower activity associated with a
tropical wave located several? hundred miles east
of the Lesser Antilles has changed little in? organization since yesterday. The disturbance is expected to
move? westward and reach the Lesser Antilles on
Monday, then cross the? eastern Caribbean Sea on
Tuesday. Environmental conditions are? forecast
to become more conducive for development while the system? moves across the central and western Caribbean Sea during the
middle? and latter parts of the week, and a
tropical depression could form? during that time.
Regardless of development, this system could? result in some gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over
portions? of the Lesser Antilles on
Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10
percent.? * Formation chance through 7
days...medium...40 percent.
3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean: A
tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to move offshore
by? Monday. Thereafter, environmental conditions
could support some? slow development of this
system throughout the week while it moves? slowly
westward or west-northwestward over the eastern tropical? Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through
48 hours...low...near 0 percent.? * Formation
chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster
Reinhart
|
Re: Texas remains in play for a possible tropical visitor
Jim, Thanks for sending us these forecasts. Jim KI5NC and ?Pat KJ5JKL ?
toggle quoted message
Show quoted text
From: [email protected] <[email protected]> On Behalf Of Jim Robinson via groups.io
Sent: Saturday, August 31, 2024 9:39 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: [w5hvl] Texas remains in play for a possible tropical visitor? The major models paint an interesting tropical picture this morning.? All four (ECMWF, GFS, GDPS, ICON) now develop the tropical wave currently east of the Leeward Islands but do so on differing time schedules.? All four, however, eventually bring whatever develops from that wave into the Gulf of Mexico. At this very early stage of the game, ECMWF is forecasting an eventual landfall somewhere around the Florida Panhandle.? GFS, GDPS, and ICON are painting a somewhere in Texas landfall but with a more or less common theme.? Those runs would first bring the system up around Brownsville then recurve it to the northeast and drag a tropical storm or hurricane just offshore up the entire Texas coast.? For now, at least, GFS has backed off its Cat 4 prediction. The sweep up the coast scenario isn't without precedent and historically has occurred several times.? For a number of reasons, including the Coriolis force, Gulf hurricanes do tend to recurve to the northeast as the season progresses.? The bottom line is that "Somewhere" Texas remains very much a possibility if all the ingredients come together and the wave is able to get its act together. As I've noted when writing about other tropical systems that might or actually did impact us, all of the models change their predictions from run to run with this being particularly true of systems that have yet to even develop but the picture will become clearer as we move into next week.? For now and until/unless something does develop, I'm providing the entities I do severe weather analysis for with a daily update and will post the same here. As for the disturbance currently hanging around off the upper Texas coast, none of this morning's model runs are developing a tropical depression or storm but we need to keep an eye on it just in case.? Very early in my first career as a broadcast weatherman, a TD formed in an area of disturbed weather about 100 miles or so off the coast of Galveston and became a named system in the course of less than 24 hours.? It didn't amount to much but does illustrate that its important to remain watchful during hurricane season. This morning's tropical weather outlook follows below. NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure near the upper Texas coast is producing? some disorganized showers and thunderstorms along and just offshore? the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. This system is expected to linger? near the coast through much of next week, and some slow development? is possible if it meanders offshore. Regardless of development,? heavy rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of? coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few? * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.? * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. 2. Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser? Antilles continues to produce some disorganized showers and? thunderstorms. The disturbance is forecast to move westward and? reach the Lesser Antilles on Monday. Thereafter, environmental? conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,? and a tropical depression could form while it continues moving? westward across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part? * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.? * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. 3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Another tropical wave located just to the west of the Cabo Verde? Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.? Development, if any, should be slow to occur while the system moves? slowly westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central? tropical Atlantic through late next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Reinhart/Mahoney
|
Texas remains in play for a possible tropical visitor
The
major models paint an interesting tropical picture this morning.? All
four (ECMWF, GFS, GDPS, ICON) now develop the tropical wave currently east
of the Leeward Islands but do so on differing time schedules.? All
four, however, eventually bring whatever develops from that wave into the
Gulf of Mexico.
At this very
early stage of the game, ECMWF is forecasting an eventual landfall
somewhere around the Florida Panhandle.? GFS, GDPS, and ICON are
painting a somewhere in Texas landfall but with a more or less common
theme.? Those runs would first bring the system up around Brownsville
then recurve it to the northeast and drag a tropical storm or hurricane
just offshore up the entire Texas coast.? For now, at least, GFS has
backed off its Cat 4 prediction.
The sweep up the coast scenario isn't without precedent and
historically has occurred several times.? For a number of reasons,
including the Coriolis force, Gulf hurricanes do tend to recurve to the
northeast as the season progresses.? The bottom line is that
"Somewhere" Texas remains very much a possibility if all the ingredients
come together and the wave is able to get its act together.
As I've noted when writing about other
tropical systems that might or actually did impact us, all of the models
change their predictions from run to run with this being particularly true
of systems that have yet to even develop but the picture will become
clearer as we move into next week.? For now and until/unless something
does develop, I'm providing the entities I do severe weather analysis for
with a daily update and will post the same here.
As for the disturbance currently
hanging around off the upper Texas coast, none of this morning's model runs
are developing a tropical depression or storm but we need to keep an eye on
it just in case.? Very early in my first career as a broadcast
weatherman, a TD formed in an area of disturbed weather about 100 miles or
so off the coast of Galveston and became a named system in the course of
less than 24 hours.? It didn't amount to much but does illustrate that
its important to remain watchful during hurricane season.
This morning's tropical weather
outlook follows below.
Jim
Robinson, W5ZYX
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National
Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 31
2024
For the North
Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Northwestern Gulf of
Mexico: A broad area of low pressure near the upper
Texas coast is producing? some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms along and just offshore? the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. This system is expected to
linger? near the coast through much of next week,
and some slow development? is possible if it
meanders offshore. Regardless of development,? heavy rains could cause some flash flooding across portions
of? coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast
during the next few? days. *
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.? * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
2. Near the Lesser Antilles and
Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave located several hundred
miles east of the Lesser? Antilles continues to
produce some disorganized showers and? thunderstorms. The disturbance is forecast to move westward
and? reach the Lesser Antilles on Monday.
Thereafter, environmental? conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system,? and a tropical depression could form while it continues
moving? westward across the Caribbean Sea through
the middle to latter part? of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0
percent.? * Formation chance through 7
days...medium...50 percent.
3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Another
tropical wave located just to the west of the Cabo Verde? Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity.? Development, if any, should be slow to
occur while the system moves? slowly westward to
west-northwestward over the eastern and central? tropical Atlantic through late next week. *
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster
Reinhart/Mahoney
Get for
Desktop
|
Re: Significant hurricane risk next week
KK1SS?
You are getting shorter in your old age Colonel.
???
¡°Stay combat effective¡± Regards, Steven Prindle 512-966-2137 K9UNI
toggle quoted message
Show quoted text
On Aug 31, 2024, at 07:07, Rene KG6YYT Roman via groups.io <Reneroman@...> wrote:
? Stay safe, y¡¯all
Rene (KG6YYT)¡.now: KK1SS
On Sat, Aug 31, 2024 at 7:47 AM, Laura WW7OO McDonald via groups.io < bonnieclyderainy@...> wrote:
Definitely staying ready and I greatly appreciate your report!
On Saturday, August 31, 2024, 6:03 AM, Russ NR5US Cooper via groups.io <iav84u@...> wrote: Lessons learned from Beryl¡¡¡.was forecast to go into Mexico.
Just a reflection! ?Be ready for the unexpected! ?Start preparing now!
Russ On Aug 30, 2024, at 9:13?PM, Jim Robinson <robinson.jimw@...> wrote:
?
An area
of disturbed weather south of Galveston and a gathering storm in the
central Atlantic both could result in problems for
Texas.??
While the
system in the Gulf may hang around and bring rain to our area a good part
of next week, the NHC is only giving it a 20% chance of development over
the next seven days.? They are, however, giving a disturbance
out? in the Atlantic a 40% chance of development and three of the
major models are flat out predicting it.
Of greatest concern this evening is
the latest run of GFS which is showing a the 40% Atlantic system as a
hurricane of Cat 4 strength approaching the middle Texas coast by around
Thursday.? This system will be tracking WNW across the Caribbean by
next week and three of the four major models have it a hurricane? by
the time it reaches the Western Caribbean.? The attached image depicts
the GPS model prediction for Thursday, which is 306 hours into its
run.? The prior run of GFS had the track more toward the eastern
Gulf.
The German ICON and
Canadian models both agree on hurricane formation in the Caribbean and
while they don't go out as far into the future as does the GFS, both have
similar Caribbean tracks though the Canadian seems to be suggesting an
eventual landfall further west toward Mexico.? The Euro model as yet
doesn't have it developing into a tropical system.
Both the GFS image and the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook image are attached.
Jim Robinson, W5ZYX
Tropical Weather
Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea
and the Gulf of Mexico:
1.
Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough of low
pressure over the northwestern Gulf of? Mexico is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and? thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas
and? Louisiana. Surface observations at this time
indicate that? pressures are relatively high in
this area, and there are no signs? of a closed
circulation. This system is expected to meander near? the coast through much of next week, and some slow development
is? possible if it remains offshore.?
Regardless of development, heavy? rains could
cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal? Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few
days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10
percent.? * Formation chance through 7
days...low...20 percent.
2.
Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea: Showers
and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave about a? thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles remain
disorganized.?? Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few? days, and
a tropical depression could form some time next week? while it moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday
and? continuing across the Caribbean Sea through
the middle to latter? part of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0
percent.? * Formation chance through 7
days...medium...40 percent.
3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Another
tropical wave between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo? Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm? activity.? Some slow
development of this system is possible through? late next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest over
the? eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.? * Formation chance through 48
hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance
through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Beven
Get for Desktop
<Potential Cat 4.png> <NHC 7 Day Outlook.png>
-- Rene KG6YYT
--
Steven
K9UNI
|
Re: Significant hurricane risk next week
Stay safe, y¡¯all
Rene (KG6YYT)¡.now: KK1SS
On Sat, Aug 31, 2024 at 7:47 AM, Laura WW7OO McDonald via groups.io < bonnieclyderainy@...> wrote:
Definitely staying ready and I greatly appreciate your report!
On Saturday, August 31, 2024, 6:03 AM, Russ NR5US Cooper via groups.io <iav84u@...> wrote: Lessons learned from Beryl¡¡¡.was forecast to go into Mexico.
Just a reflection! ?Be ready for the unexpected! ?Start preparing now!
Russ On Aug 30, 2024, at 9:13?PM, Jim Robinson <robinson.jimw@...> wrote:
?
An area
of disturbed weather south of Galveston and a gathering storm in the
central Atlantic both could result in problems for
Texas.??
While the
system in the Gulf may hang around and bring rain to our area a good part
of next week, the NHC is only giving it a 20% chance of development over
the next seven days.? They are, however, giving a disturbance
out? in the Atlantic a 40% chance of development and three of the
major models are flat out predicting it.
Of greatest concern this evening is
the latest run of GFS which is showing a the 40% Atlantic system as a
hurricane of Cat 4 strength approaching the middle Texas coast by around
Thursday.? This system will be tracking WNW across the Caribbean by
next week and three of the four major models have it a hurricane? by
the time it reaches the Western Caribbean.? The attached image depicts
the GPS model prediction for Thursday, which is 306 hours into its
run.? The prior run of GFS had the track more toward the eastern
Gulf.
The German ICON and
Canadian models both agree on hurricane formation in the Caribbean and
while they don't go out as far into the future as does the GFS, both have
similar Caribbean tracks though the Canadian seems to be suggesting an
eventual landfall further west toward Mexico.? The Euro model as yet
doesn't have it developing into a tropical system.
Both the GFS image and the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook image are attached.
Jim Robinson, W5ZYX
Tropical Weather
Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea
and the Gulf of Mexico:
1.
Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough of low
pressure over the northwestern Gulf of? Mexico is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and? thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas
and? Louisiana. Surface observations at this time
indicate that? pressures are relatively high in
this area, and there are no signs? of a closed
circulation. This system is expected to meander near? the coast through much of next week, and some slow development
is? possible if it remains offshore.?
Regardless of development, heavy? rains could
cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal? Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few
days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10
percent.? * Formation chance through 7
days...low...20 percent.
2.
Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea: Showers
and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave about a? thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles remain
disorganized.?? Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few? days, and
a tropical depression could form some time next week? while it moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday
and? continuing across the Caribbean Sea through
the middle to latter? part of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0
percent.? * Formation chance through 7
days...medium...40 percent.
3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Another
tropical wave between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo? Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm? activity.? Some slow
development of this system is possible through? late next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest over
the? eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.? * Formation chance through 48
hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance
through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Beven
Get for Desktop
<Potential Cat 4.png> <NHC 7 Day Outlook.png>
--
Rene
KG6YYT
|
Re: Significant hurricane risk next week
Definitely staying ready and I greatly appreciate your report!
On Saturday, August 31, 2024, 6:03 AM, Russ NR5US Cooper via groups.io <iav84u@...> wrote: Lessons learned from Beryl¡¡¡.was forecast to go into Mexico.
Just a reflection! ?Be ready for the unexpected! ?Start preparing now!
Russ On Aug 30, 2024, at 9:13?PM, Jim Robinson <robinson.jimw@...> wrote:
?
An area
of disturbed weather south of Galveston and a gathering storm in the
central Atlantic both could result in problems for
Texas.??
While the
system in the Gulf may hang around and bring rain to our area a good part
of next week, the NHC is only giving it a 20% chance of development over
the next seven days.? They are, however, giving a disturbance
out? in the Atlantic a 40% chance of development and three of the
major models are flat out predicting it.
Of greatest concern this evening is
the latest run of GFS which is showing a the 40% Atlantic system as a
hurricane of Cat 4 strength approaching the middle Texas coast by around
Thursday.? This system will be tracking WNW across the Caribbean by
next week and three of the four major models have it a hurricane? by
the time it reaches the Western Caribbean.? The attached image depicts
the GPS model prediction for Thursday, which is 306 hours into its
run.? The prior run of GFS had the track more toward the eastern
Gulf.
The German ICON and
Canadian models both agree on hurricane formation in the Caribbean and
while they don't go out as far into the future as does the GFS, both have
similar Caribbean tracks though the Canadian seems to be suggesting an
eventual landfall further west toward Mexico.? The Euro model as yet
doesn't have it developing into a tropical system.
Both the GFS image and the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook image are attached.
Jim Robinson, W5ZYX
Tropical Weather
Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea
and the Gulf of Mexico:
1.
Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough of low
pressure over the northwestern Gulf of? Mexico is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and? thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas
and? Louisiana. Surface observations at this time
indicate that? pressures are relatively high in
this area, and there are no signs? of a closed
circulation. This system is expected to meander near? the coast through much of next week, and some slow development
is? possible if it remains offshore.?
Regardless of development, heavy? rains could
cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal? Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few
days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10
percent.? * Formation chance through 7
days...low...20 percent.
2.
Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea: Showers
and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave about a? thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles remain
disorganized.?? Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few? days, and
a tropical depression could form some time next week? while it moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday
and? continuing across the Caribbean Sea through
the middle to latter? part of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0
percent.? * Formation chance through 7
days...medium...40 percent.
3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Another
tropical wave between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo? Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm? activity.? Some slow
development of this system is possible through? late next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest over
the? eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.? * Formation chance through 48
hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance
through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Beven
Get for Desktop
<Potential Cat 4.png> <NHC 7 Day Outlook.png>
|
Re: Significant hurricane risk next week
Lessons learned from Beryl¡¡¡.was forecast to go into Mexico.
Just a reflection! ?Be ready for the unexpected! ?Start preparing now!
toggle quoted message
Show quoted text
On Aug 30, 2024, at 9:13?PM, Jim Robinson <robinson.jimw@...> wrote:
?
An area
of disturbed weather south of Galveston and a gathering storm in the
central Atlantic both could result in problems for
Texas.??
While the
system in the Gulf may hang around and bring rain to our area a good part
of next week, the NHC is only giving it a 20% chance of development over
the next seven days.? They are, however, giving a disturbance
out? in the Atlantic a 40% chance of development and three of the
major models are flat out predicting it.
Of greatest concern this evening is
the latest run of GFS which is showing a the 40% Atlantic system as a
hurricane of Cat 4 strength approaching the middle Texas coast by around
Thursday.? This system will be tracking WNW across the Caribbean by
next week and three of the four major models have it a hurricane? by
the time it reaches the Western Caribbean.? The attached image depicts
the GPS model prediction for Thursday, which is 306 hours into its
run.? The prior run of GFS had the track more toward the eastern
Gulf.
The German ICON and
Canadian models both agree on hurricane formation in the Caribbean and
while they don't go out as far into the future as does the GFS, both have
similar Caribbean tracks though the Canadian seems to be suggesting an
eventual landfall further west toward Mexico.? The Euro model as yet
doesn't have it developing into a tropical system.
Both the GFS image and the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook image are attached.
Jim Robinson, W5ZYX
Tropical Weather
Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea
and the Gulf of Mexico:
1.
Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough of low
pressure over the northwestern Gulf of? Mexico is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and? thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas
and? Louisiana. Surface observations at this time
indicate that? pressures are relatively high in
this area, and there are no signs? of a closed
circulation. This system is expected to meander near? the coast through much of next week, and some slow development
is? possible if it remains offshore.?
Regardless of development, heavy? rains could
cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal? Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few
days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10
percent.? * Formation chance through 7
days...low...20 percent.
2.
Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea: Showers
and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave about a? thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles remain
disorganized.?? Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few? days, and
a tropical depression could form some time next week? while it moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday
and? continuing across the Caribbean Sea through
the middle to latter? part of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0
percent.? * Formation chance through 7
days...medium...40 percent.
3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Another
tropical wave between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo? Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm? activity.? Some slow
development of this system is possible through? late next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest over
the? eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.? * Formation chance through 48
hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance
through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Beven
Get for Desktop
<Potential Cat 4.png> <NHC 7 Day Outlook.png>
|
Significant hurricane risk next week
An area
of disturbed weather south of Galveston and a gathering storm in the
central Atlantic both could result in problems for
Texas.??
While the
system in the Gulf may hang around and bring rain to our area a good part
of next week, the NHC is only giving it a 20% chance of development over
the next seven days.? They are, however, giving a disturbance
out? in the Atlantic a 40% chance of development and three of the
major models are flat out predicting it.
Of greatest concern this evening is
the latest run of GFS which is showing a the 40% Atlantic system as a
hurricane of Cat 4 strength approaching the middle Texas coast by around
Thursday.? This system will be tracking WNW across the Caribbean by
next week and three of the four major models have it a hurricane? by
the time it reaches the Western Caribbean.? The attached image depicts
the GPS model prediction for Thursday, which is 306 hours into its
run.? The prior run of GFS had the track more toward the eastern
Gulf.
The German ICON and
Canadian models both agree on hurricane formation in the Caribbean and
while they don't go out as far into the future as does the GFS, both have
similar Caribbean tracks though the Canadian seems to be suggesting an
eventual landfall further west toward Mexico.? The Euro model as yet
doesn't have it developing into a tropical system.
Both the GFS image and the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook image are attached.
Jim Robinson, W5ZYX
Tropical Weather
Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea
and the Gulf of Mexico:
1.
Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough of low
pressure over the northwestern Gulf of? Mexico is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and? thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas
and? Louisiana. Surface observations at this time
indicate that? pressures are relatively high in
this area, and there are no signs? of a closed
circulation. This system is expected to meander near? the coast through much of next week, and some slow development
is? possible if it remains offshore.?
Regardless of development, heavy? rains could
cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal? Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few
days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10
percent.? * Formation chance through 7
days...low...20 percent.
2.
Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea: Showers
and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave about a? thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles remain
disorganized.?? Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few? days, and
a tropical depression could form some time next week? while it moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday
and? continuing across the Caribbean Sea through
the middle to latter? part of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0
percent.? * Formation chance through 7
days...medium...40 percent.
3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Another
tropical wave between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo? Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm? activity.? Some slow
development of this system is possible through? late next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest over
the? eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.? * Formation chance through 48
hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance
through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Beven
Get for Desktop
|
Reminder: WCARG Breakfast
When:
Saturday, August 31, 2024
9:00am to 10:00am
(UTC-05:00) America/Chicago
Where:
Denny's, 3016 11th St, Huntsville, TX 77340
Organizer:
WCARG
[email protected]
View Event
Description:
Walker County Amateur Radio Group weekly breakfast.? Anyone interested in ham radio, whether licensed or not, is invited.
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[stxares] STX ARES - Daily Summary
This is an opportunity to assist with this event. Please review the original email.?
Catch You on the Air,
Jason ?Hampton
-Freedom Isn't Free
N2TXS, WSCT237
830-992-1334?
Sent from an Android mobile device. Please excuse brevity and disregard any spelling or grammatical errors.
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Catch you on the air,
Jason Hampton
*Freedom Isn't Free
N2TXS, WXCT237
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Reminder: WCARG Breakfast
When:
Saturday, August 24, 2024
9:00am to 10:00am
(UTC-05:00) America/Chicago
Where:
Denny's, 3016 11th St, Huntsville, TX 77340
Organizer:
WCARG
[email protected]
View Event
Description:
Walker County Amateur Radio Group Breakfast.? Anyone interested in ham radio, whether licensed or not, is invited.
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Rick WA2HRF Fell
Jason N5DRI Hampton
Steven K9UNI Prindle
Rene KG6YYT Roman
Russ NR5US Cooper
