An area
of disturbed weather south of Galveston and a gathering storm in the
central Atlantic both could result in problems for
Texas.??
While the
system in the Gulf may hang around and bring rain to our area a good part
of next week, the NHC is only giving it a 20% chance of development over
the next seven days.? They are, however, giving a disturbance
out? in the Atlantic a 40% chance of development and three of the
major models are flat out predicting it.
Of greatest concern this evening is
the latest run of GFS which is showing a the 40% Atlantic system as a
hurricane of Cat 4 strength approaching the middle Texas coast by around
Thursday.? This system will be tracking WNW across the Caribbean by
next week and three of the four major models have it a hurricane? by
the time it reaches the Western Caribbean.? The attached image depicts
the GPS model prediction for Thursday, which is 306 hours into its
run.? The prior run of GFS had the track more toward the eastern
Gulf.
The German ICON and
Canadian models both agree on hurricane formation in the Caribbean and
while they don't go out as far into the future as does the GFS, both have
similar Caribbean tracks though the Canadian seems to be suggesting an
eventual landfall further west toward Mexico.? The Euro model as yet
doesn't have it developing into a tropical system.
Both the GFS image and the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook image are attached.
Jim Robinson, W5ZYX
Tropical Weather
Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea
and the Gulf of Mexico:
1.
Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low
pressure over the northwestern Gulf of?
Mexico is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and?
thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas
and?
Louisiana. Surface observations at this time
indicate that?
pressures are relatively high in
this area, and there are no signs?
of a closed
circulation. This system is expected to meander near?
the coast through much of next week, and some slow development
is?
possible if it remains offshore.?
Regardless of development, heavy?
rains could
cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal?
Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10
percent.?
* Formation chance through 7
days...low...20 percent.
2.
Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Showers
and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave about a?
thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles remain
disorganized.??
Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few?
days, and
a tropical depression could form some time next week?
while it moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday
and?
continuing across the Caribbean Sea through
the middle to latter?
part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0
percent.?
* Formation chance through 7
days...medium...40 percent.
3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another
tropical wave between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo?
Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm?
activity.? Some slow
development of this system is possible through?
late next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest over
the?
eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.?
* Formation chance through 48
hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance
through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Beven
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