Weather Update: Severe Weather Possible on Sunday followed by Freezing Temperatures
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Rather than
write my own analysis I am forwarding the latest outlook for local
government from the forecasters at NWS/HGX.? Updates will be provided
if the forecast picture changes.
Jim Robinson,
W5ZY
Bottom Line
A strong cold front will push into Southeast Texas on
Sunday ushering in much colder temperatures that will last well into next
week. A few?strong to severe storms are possible ahead
of and along the boundary of the cold front on Sunday.?
What Has Changed Since Previous
Email?
- There is a slight risk
of severe weather north of I-10 and east of I-45 on Sunday with a marginal
risk elsewhere.?
- Forecast remains on track for much colder temperatures
throughout next week.
Overview
As a strong cold front approaches Southeast Texas on
Sunday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of and
along its boundary. A few of these storms could?become
strong to severe in the morning to afternoon hours, especially north of
I-10 and east of I-45. The Storm Prediction?Center has
outlined?this area in a slight risk of severe weather (level 2 out of
5). A marginal risk of severe weather (level 1 out of 5) exists
elsewhere. The main hazards will be damaging winds and brief
tornadoes.
Behind the cold front, much colder air filters into
Southeast Texas with low temperatures at or below freezing possible as
early as Sunday night and well into next week. This includes
the potential for multiple nights of below-freezing temperatures in
portions of Southeast Texas deep into next week,?but temperatures will
rise above freezing during the daytime hours mainly into the 40s. The low
end of the low temperature range looks to fall
between the mid 20s to low 30s.?
There remains quite a bit of uncertainty on the potential
for wintry precipitation around the middle of next week as it all depends
on how far northward a coastal system in the western
Gulf moves. While the probabilities for wintry precipitation on
Wednesday/Thursday are low, they are not zero, so be sure to stay up to
date on the latest forecasts.
Below are some
probabilistic temperature outlooks that show the probabilities of
below-freezing temperatures Sunday night through Wednesday night. The
higher the probability, the higher our confidence
for seeing below-freezing temperatures. Monday night and Tuesday night
have the greatest potential for widespread sub-freezing temperatures.
A?deterministic?temperature outlook is also being included to
show what we have in our current forecast (which has
trended slightly cooler from yesterday's forecast).
The bottom line
is to prepare for an extended period of colder temperatures, some of which
will include periods of below freezing temperatures.?
Probability of
Below-Freezing Temperatures (Sunday Night)
Probability of
Below-Freezing Temperatures (Monday Night)
Probability of
Below-Freezing Temperatures (Tuesday Night)
Probability of
Below-Freezing Temperatures (Wednesday Night)
Deterministic
Temperature Outlook (Saturday-Thursday)
Down below are some tips on how to prepare for the
upcoming cold weather.
Hazardous Marine
Conditions
In the wake of
the front, moderate to strong northerly to northeasterly winds will prevail
late Sunday into Monday morning with the potential for gale-force gusts in
the Gulf waters and low waters in
the bays during low tide. Mariners can expect a period of caution to
advisory level conditions due to elevated winds and seas into next week.
Seas may build to 7-10 feet in the Gulf waters Sunday into Monday as
moderate to strong offshore flow prevails.
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