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W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2019-89
¿ªÔÆÌåÓýGreetings to
my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world. ? Welcome to my now shortened ¡°not for profit¡± W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? You can sign up for the daily email delivered global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast at ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? You can view the forecast online at ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast/messages ? ? I'm a heliophysicist, troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In troposphere weather forecasting I have 46 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 31 years In physical oceanography 10 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2019. ? You can contact me at thomasfgiella@... . ? ? (((((W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum will begin later in 2019-2020 and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another ¡°Dalton¡± type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. ? This would negate anthropogenic climate change (harmful man induced global warming) if it were occurring, WHICH IT ISN¡¯T. ? For more ¡°truth¡± on the left wing lie of anthropogenic climate change (harmful man induced global warming) check out https://wattsupwiththat.com and http://www.climatedepot.com ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.))))) ? #114 issued Tuesday April 23, 2019 at 1400 UTC ? GLOBAL (HF-MF 3000-30000 kHz- 300-3000 kHz) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? Radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Apr 23, 2019- steady ? Radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Apr 23, 2019- minor deterioration. ? Radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Apr 24, 2019- minor deterioration. ? ? NORTHERN HEMISPHERE HF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST g- ? Received RF signal strength scale- ? Very Good- +1 over S9 or greater Good- S7-9 Fair- S4-6 Poor- S1-3 Very Poor- S0 ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 at night and S1-2 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? ? SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE HF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 at night and S1-2 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? GLOBAL (MF) (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? Received RF signal strength scale- ? Very Good- +1 over S9 or greater Good- S7-9 Fair- S4-6 Poor- S1-3 Very Poor- S0 ? ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? ? Received RF signal strength scale- ? Very Good- +1 over S9 or greater Good- S7-9 Fair- S4-6 Poor- S1-3 Very Poor- S0 ? This HF-MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF-MF radio wave propagation prediction software. X and O ray tracing is included. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and Prop Lab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. ? Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF-MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2019 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF-MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? ? ? |