" I read somewhere that Bob Heil has an extensive and totally ungrounded station, and never has a problem with lightning or RF."
And he will be SK Bob Heil if lightning strikes that Antenna while he's using the Radio.? Not to mention how many other people in his house may get hurt as it runs from the rig down the mains ground to his appliances.
Nothing is a certainty unless you spend really big $$ on a professionally installed grounding system but for a few hundred dollars you can swing the odds in your favor.