In the case of my 1976, it was a sudden snap. I was in a friendly race with other cruisers in Elizabeth harbor in the Exumas when things got gusty, quickly, and I found myself over-canvassed and fighting a lot of weather helm to avoid some hazards until I could balance the rig (reef and raise some c/b).? I was able to anchor almost immediately and jury rig steerage via lines to a hole drilled in the aft corner.
Presumably failure wasn't just from those minutes of hard torque, but a few decades in the making.? The metal smith that made a new shaft said the original appeared cold-bent when it should have been hot-bent, or vice-versa -- again, if memory serves, and if that makes any sense; my head for metal is limited to music.?
Prior to this, there was nothing to suggest failure was imminent, i.e. no rust or cracking anywhere, no delamination, etc.