Thank for that. Where do you find the ranges for haplogroup formation? I was looking at Discover, but that didn't give a range.
I can definitely constrain it tighter than 1416 to 1810. Henry Van Houten was born about 1773, and he wasn't the ancestor of PHVH, so formation of the haplogroup is at least one generation earlier. The most recent patrinear ancestor of PHVH that could have been Henry's father assuming my tree is right) was baptized in 1741, so that puts an upper bound on the formation date. PHVH and myself are descended from different brothers of the second generation in America, baptized in the New Amsterdam Reformed Church in 1648 (my ancestor) and 1651 (his), so that puts a lower bound on the formation, but that encompasses four generations... again, if my tree is right.
To constrain it further, I need to find a tester who is descended from Cornelis Roelofs (baptized 1651) who is not a descendant of Roelof Van Houten (baptized 1741.)
On Wed, Jul 31, 2024 at 3:31 PM, Mike Tryon
<michaeldtryon@...> wrote:
There is a LOT of uncertainty in all dates associated with haplogroups. The rough estimate is the broad observation that the average time between SNP mutations is 83 years. Say if your line has accumulated three new mutations since the last shared mutation with another lineage (both descendants of your most recent common ancestor MRCA) then, very roughly, about 250 years has passed since the split. Additional information from additional testers, documented relationships, and associated haplogroups can be worked into the estimate to refine it but it is still VERY rough. For example, I manage a group who have a documented common ancestor born in 1646. Thirteen descendants have tested who represent lineages from four of his sons. Nine generations have passed and in that time from 2 to 7 mutations have occurred in the descendants. If you simply applied the 83 years per mutation to those, you come up with wildly different time estimates since their MRCA. But since we have 13 testers instead of 2, we can get a better estimate. The average was 3.6 mutations which gives us an estimate that is quite close to the real time [1950-3.6x83=1651]. You'll notice that FTDNA gives ranges as well as dates for haplogroup formations. In the case of R-BY81828, the range is 1416 to 1810.
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Mike Tryon
