开云体育

> I don't think there's any great conspiracy or powerful forces directing it - but this is just the way the world system has been evolving. Thousands of individual decisions that make sense on a micro level, add up to make big consequences.


Quite right. I try not to ascribe to conspiracy anything that could be the result of stupidity. I once saw a cartoon that was all too apt. “Be proud of your stupidity,” it said. “It’s what separates us from the animals."

For years I’ve been warning Apple on Mac news sites not to do so much single sourcing, particularly in China. Always have several sources even if some cost more, I stressed. Recently, Apple announced that it would lose $8 billion dollars due to supply chain issues. I feel like I should bill them for business advice not taken.

And those California ports are jammed in part because the state’s politicians stupidly passed a law that means that few trucks older than three years meet the pollution standards. Long-distance truckers, with more business than they can handle anyway, simply avoid trips into and out of the state. Politicians make one decision, thousands of truckers respond with another. No conspiracy. Just stupidity followed by a predictable and reasonable response. Truckers know trucking. Politicians do not.

—Mike Perry, WA4MP

The captain of a large cargo vessel has a great video explaining the various roots of the issues Hans has with getting the parts he needs. This comment about the high-tech industry is particularly relevant.

> 4:26 "... delicately balanced supply chain ..."? What you should have said is "a perilously stretched supply chain that had no contingency plans." I have worked in the high-tech supply chain discipline for almost 15 years, and top management has refused to listen to warnings or do any risk planning for longer than I've been in it. Everything has been leaned out to the max, to maximize profits and bonuses. Now the economy and consumers are paying the price, while the execs who put us here are sitting on piles of cash.
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When a system of trade is already being pushed to its limits by a desire to maximize profits with a just-in-time inventory, it has no reserves to call on when a crisis develops. We’ve had several major ones in the last couple of years. The troubles then feed on one another. Those 70+ ships sitting at anchor off LA and San Diego aren’t available to ship other cargos between other ports in other countries.

Interestingly, I’ve not noticed any increased delays in the orders I’ve made from China to ready for the arrival of that QCX mini. The last of them, an iambic key, should arrive today. They take several weeks to arrive just like before but not more weeks. Of course, what I was ordering was small and seems to have gone space available on cargo aircraft. The package may sit a week or so waiting for a flight out, but it’s not on a ship waiting at anchor for weeks like larger cargos.

—Mike Perry, WA4MP