Dan, you are not the first who has slipped with a probe.? Many of us have done that.
Yes, it's probably just the smps - at least we can hope so.? It's easy to short the 12V to the 5V or 3V rail, which will burn out one or more of the protection diodes like fuses.? And thankfully so, since they normally spare us from more damage to other parts.
And Yes, following that thread on testing the power supplies is a good place to start.? The wiki here also has a procedure to independently test the smps cards.
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?If you have a lower-voltage power supply to use while doing tests, it will help prevent possible further damage - like 7-9V, preferably with a current limit.? But I think you said you don't have the current limit, so it's ok to use whatever you have, just be careful.
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I haven't gone back and read that whole thread, but I would start with more measurements with everything still put together, except the bottom cover off.? Identify the pins on the power supply connectors for V+(12V), Vcc and Vdd, and a good ground point to measure against.?? Push the power-on button and hold it in while measuring the values on each of those points.? Don't keep the power button pressed for a long time, since something is likely shorted and will be heating up.? These measurements can help you (and us) know what you are starting with, and where to focus efforts.? While you are at it, bonus for measuring the other signals, like Power_On, Power_hold, Lin_Reg_En.
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Stan KC7XE