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Next total solar eclipse with good weather prospects
Aug 2 2027 Likly good weather. Maybe too close to war zones. (some oafs thought the eastern townships of quebec was too far to drive. Ha!) attilla danko, attilladanko@..., danko@... |
I was in Malaga, Spain, with my wife on an anniversary trip last year. No shots fired! But it may feel like you’re on the surface of the Sun in August.
After yesterday, my wife says she’s a “totality or bust” person. She’s not an astronomer, but that left an impression! But I will avoid the other locations on the list. There’s also northern Spain in 2026. -Adam |
Gotta say, my track record isn't great.? Only two perfectly clear eclipses out of five.
1979 Gimli Manitoba - high cirrus but pretty good 1991 Baja California Mexico - saw totality briefly through a hole in the clouds 1994 New York - perfect - but Annular. 2006 Libya - perfect! 2024 Quebec - seen through thin clouds Doug |
I've seen only 1 total eclipse. But it was in a perfect sky.
I had spent a lot of time studying the forecasts. I prepared 6 different possible observing sites in Quebec and compared the ECMEF and CMC cloud forecasts. I watched the forecasts for several days and noted that each new forecast predicted the cloud bank a little further east. The 6am update on the 8th pretty well forecast what people observed: opaque in Niagra, lot's of clouds at Bob Olson's observatory (but the inner corona was still visible). Thin cloud at granby. I went to the very furthest (4 hours drive) site I had prepared because it was the only one where ECMWF and CMC cloud forecasts agreed it would be clear. That was near Coaticook. No clouds and good transparency. I felt pretty smart during the 3m20s of totality. Not so smart in the giant traffic jam on Autoroute 10 on the way home. Did i read correctly that observers at Granby, and other sites further west, did not describe details in the coronal streamer? Was detail visibe? I saw much coronal detail. I attribute it to the good transparency at Coaticook. I suspect that it isn't possible to guarantee a cloud-free eclipse observation without a similar amount of preparation. We are lucky in north america that we have good cloud forecast models. I'm don't know about what's available for the Austrailian eclipse. I can see why people describe seeing an eclipse as a once-in-a-lifetime experince. Though I think it's the wrong words, since most are adamant about wanting to see another one. many-times-in-a-lifetime experience? -ad On Tue, Apr 9, 2024 at 3:45?PM Douglas B. George via groups.io <dgeorge@...> wrote:
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Attilla, But Bromont made for a quick getaway, we had a clean drive on the 10 doing “the speed limit”, no traffic jams until the 30 (toll bridge) and the 417 (truck fire?!). I had two young kids in the car, so I made a tough call. It was a good one, for me. |
Good stetch. pretty much what i remember. On Tue, Apr 9, 2024, 21:15 Adam Bell <adambell714@...> wrote:
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开云体育Hi All -- This was my fourth TSE.? 2003 Kruger Park in SA: cloudy. 2005 Libia: wonderful; 2008 Mongolia: wonderful;? 2024 Knowlton Quebec ( a bit SE of Bromont): very good.? There were thin high clouds during totality, so to reinforce Attilla's comments, the wider corona was at best barely visible, at least to my more aged eyes.? I didn’t see anything clearly like Adam’s sketch of the corona, though this may ?have been due to my aging eyes, or being a bit blinded from having looked at the sun for a few seconds before totality. ? However, this was the first time for my son, Robert, and Richard and others who were with us at the hill / small mountain top parking lot that Richard had spied out-- they were all mightily impressed.? Maybe their views were closer to Adam’s sketch. ? I brought my Lunt h-alpha plus some white light refractors, so folks were really impressed by the h-alpha views.? I didn't see the big prominence naked eye during totality, though it was easily visible in the Lunt.? ? Perhaps the bright ring immediately around the sun (the chromosphere) was too bright, or the thin clouds did too much scattering and it overwhelmed the corona, at least to my eyes. ? Our outbound drive was ~3 hours, but we too got caught in the traffic on the return, which was over 5 hours. ? ? ? ? From: [email protected] <[email protected]>
On Behalf Of Attilla Danko
Sent: Tuesday, April 9, 2024 9:17 PM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: [OAFs] Next total solar eclipse with good weather prospects ? Attention : courriel externe | external email Good stetch. pretty much what i remember. ? ? ? On Tue, Apr 9, 2024, 21:15 Adam Bell <adambell714@...> wrote:
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Hi All, Thank you to Michael and Robert for joining me at Mont Foster? I snapped this pic during totality from the site. Some detail in the corona, but the contrast is poor.?? Richard? On Tue, Apr 9, 2024, 21:27 Michael W <mwolfson@...> wrote:
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Hi,?
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Thank you all for the great discussions, relevant information and feedback. As planned we (wife, brother in law) drove into New York State and to Plattsburg early morning. It was remarkably quiet on the roads in and out. We spent 2 hours before and 2 hours after totality on a baseball diamand and parking lot in a quite natural setting. It was wonderful with nearly cloudless conditions (whisps of high cloud part of time). It was our first eclipse and made a big impression on us. It became quite cold and windy while the light dimmed to darkness (alien space ship is coming..). We saw the dark patterns run in and disappear. We saw the planets, prominences. I brought my relatively simple camera setup (70 d, 250mm FL, 20 stop filter, tripod).? Despite very small live view screen i adjusted settings and saw/recorded the pink beads in particular at the bottom). I dont think I optimized the focus (in the excitement i touched focus while removing filter).? Some processing will likely bring out the features in more detail (later).? I also managed to set up another tripod for my cellphone and recorded the response of my party and other video sessions throughout the event.? That was quite interesting. I also caught the birds (chickadee) singing after end of eclipse (it is a nice new day...). Thank you all,? Marco
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Being south of Sherbrooke, you were east of us (in Magog), so I'm not certain there was any way you could have escaped the A-10 traffic jam, but we did.? I think most viewers were seeing their first eclipse, partial or otherwise, and they likely stayed in place until the very end.? We, however, left immediately after totality, and we got as far as the A-30 before the A-10 became (as we heard on the radio) a parking lot.? Nevertheless, I'm sure Coaticook had better views of the event. Before the eclipse, many commentators were saying that seeing totality is a totally different experience than seeing partial. Now that I've seen totality, I agree.??My view: driving long, sleeping less, eating little, skipping pee-stops (crowds at McD's) -- that can be done; seeing totality in the best-of-circumstances, especially when it is feasibly close at hand,?is worth whatever effort it takes.??
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开云体育As I’ve recounted on a couple of other recent threads, my wife and I travelled to San Antonio, Texas, which might well have had the thickest cloud cover along the entire path of totality. ?San Antonio was a great choice the 14 October annular eclipse, but not so great for 8 April totality. ?Not being a spring chicken, I realize that I’m not going to have that many more chances to witness a total eclipse and if I am going to see one, I need to start planning where and when that next attempt will be.I’ve been researching the next four total eclipses - up through November 2030, and at least considering predicted cloud cover, the first two seem more promising than the others. ?The next four total eclipses are as follows: Date ? ? ?Best viewing prospects? August 12, 2026 - Spain August 2, 2027 - ? Spain near Gibraltar, better in Northern Africa July 22, 2028 - Australia, New Zealand November 25, 2030 - Southern Africa, Southern Australia? I found that the site Timeanddate.com?allows you to scroll along the path of an eclipse and gather much useful information which I feel might help me to make the most informed decision regarding as to where the best viewing options might be. ?After my disappointing experience in San Antonio, I think that one of my primary considerations as to choosing viewing locations will be the lowest average predicted cloud cover along the path of totality possible. ?The T&D site allows you to scroll along the path - or anywhere near it - and see what the average cloud cover since 2000 is for any location, along with all sorts of other pertinent data like duration of totality, timing, and cloud cover. ?San Antonio had a predicted cloud cover for the recent total eclipse of about 47% and our part of Canada was largely in the lower 70% range. ?If I’m going to travel for an eclipse, I’m going to maximize my chance of success by picking a location that is historically as dry as I can get. General eclipse info through 2030: August 12, 2026: August 2, 2027: The first two dates offer the driest options. ?On the 8/2/26 eclipse, Spain offers the best hope for clear skies with at least 2 dozen towns that I’ve identified with average cloud coverage of 17-19%. ?Most of those are towns which are in the central mountainous region of Spain. ?However, Spain is near the end of the eclipse’s path and as such has at most about 1’50” totality. ?The 8/2/27 eclipse has maximum totality durations from 4’51” to 5’27” in Northern Africa. ?I’ve identified at least eight towns in Spain with durations ranging from 2’1” to 3’39”. ?The average cloud coverage in both Spain and Africa is FAR better at figures from 0-9%. ?On average, the limited sites in Spain were the drier than other countries with figures ranging from 3-7%. ?The African options, while more numerous, bring into play vagaries of political instability, social unrest, or outright failed state dysfunction. ?Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia seem to be largely more inviting options than Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Somalia. ? I’ve begun compiling a spreadsheet for all the pertinent factors that I can come up with and will chart my course accordingly. Totality is at the top of my bucket list and I am aiming at maximizing my chances of actually seeing it next time. GAS Greg Schneider, D.M.A. 431 Galatina Way Kanata, Ontario K2K 0E5 (613) 265-0961 gas@...
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