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Re: Five not Friday


 

1.? Is the Iranian drone and ballistic missile attack on Israel a declaration of war?

It is a development in an existing war. Islamist extremists and Jewish extremists have made no secret of each having the goal of exterminating the other. Religious clothing is a long-existing fashion statement in the historical effort to drape the human lust for power in prettier bling. This is definitely an escalation, though, and a declaration of the willingness of Iran's various special interests to risk more in their determination?not to be seen as less. The children are drawing lines in the sand and then each is crossing the other's. I expect we will not see the end of such behavior anytime soon.

2.? ?What do you recommend?the Israelis do?

The Jews have a very powerful self-identity that is strongly founded on religious fervor as their God's chosen, on the concept of being unjustly persecuted, on the statement that they are entitled to their place in the Holy Land and on the perceived need to be seen as too scrappy to be worth attacking. My recommendation is that they promote their existing responses as propaganda to support that last part and otherwise secure the alliance with the wider world as part of an overwhelming coalition to enforce a rule of law on the international community and thus avoid widespread bloody warfare being used to settle differences.

What I expect?from the response is that the Old Testament example of God directing the?Israelites?to enact Holy punishment against the heathens for their transgressions against the Chosen of God will be a frontline banner was the IDF pours over terrorist positions. The Islamic groups will, of course, pursue the Holy jihad against the Israeli?heathens, so the Hebrew cause will have plenty of opportunity to wave such a banner.

With a little luck, Allah and God will get annoyed by all the noise and jackslap both sides.

3.? Is this the incident that is going to precipitate a full blown war in the Middle East?

I expect it is six and a half dozen because I can easily see it headed that way, yet such would be a very big step for the National Faces of the backroom extremists. Presently these have money, sex, sunshine and all the other material trappings of a great life. To officially join an all-out war would be too place everything they have on the line in a very risky move. OTOH, it presently is a fight for survival anyway and if their status quo is threatened by the global powers that be, they become cornered rats.?

I think it depends upon saving face and securing an attractive power balance in Palestine. If this does not happen, then war it is. Final answer.

4.? Will such a war extend beyond the Middle East?

Duh.

5.? What should the US do about this?

Pick the winning side and support it.?(Aligning with the losing side is obviously ill-advised.)?History has made it apparent that rooting out terrorist and guerrilla forces will be draining and expensive. Not to mention all to often unsuccessful. Colonization is not likely to be tolerated by the global community nor by the US citizenry. An overwhelming global coalition might have a chance putting the brakes on both terrorist activity and rogue state threats. Maybe.

I am personally hoping the actual international powers running the various national thrones decide that a global conflagration is not in line with their plans, but I am a diehard conspiracy theorist!

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