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Thoughts on Snow Pack for mid-July to Mid Aug hike

 

Crazy snow so far. My concern is hiking through snow and being eaten by skeeters starting NB in mid to late July. I know its too early to say definitively, but I love to chat about backpacking. Any thoughts?

Thanks!
Sam
 

First, I think it's WAY too early to worry about the snow pack right now. But, yeah, to your point, I went out on the JMT in July/August of 2017 when there of 200% of average snow pack. It sucked. Snow covered passes, raging creeks, muddy trails, and mosquitoes for days.??
 

Yes, now was somewhat crazy back in December, but January has been dry and no major rain/snow event is in sight. We are down to just ~20% over average and drop fast.
Follow along here:?

I do wish we’d have another high snow year though, we need the water + high snow Sierra hikes are epic!

Happy Trails
 

Hello Sam - Not sure if you are also a member of the JMT Facebook group, but there is quite a bit of snow chat there. I've been posting periodic updates there of snow sensor data from near the trail for the past few years, and will do so this winter/spring too.

As a general comment on hiking the JMT after a big snow winter: it does raise some objective hazards (swollen creeks, steep snow, thin snow bridges, hidden hazards, sun cups, etc). I started my hike in early July 2017, a very big snow year, and all those things were relevant. Some people hated it and got off trail within a couple days. Others (like myself) just accepted the conditions and in the end I enjoyed the snow sections more than the dry trail. A key issue is that there's water everywhere, and wet feet becomes a way of life. However, there is a strange little window before too much snow has melted where the mosquitoes aren't that bad. I was amazed how easy I got off - a couple crazy bug sections but they were few and far between. Must have been either too cold or too much moving water for the bugs to hatch.

All that said, after big December storms it's been flat line for the past two weeks. Basically there is no telling how hiking conditions will pan out until April or May - in the meantime all the speculation is just for fun.
Sam Molinari
 

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Realize that January has been somewhat of a slow start given the amount of snow in December.? Just remember that in 2018/ 2019, the year of Snowzilla, we had a great start in November but no real additional snow until the end of January and then didn’t stop until late April. ?No one has been able to predict with certainty in January the snow totals for February and March.

?

Sent from for Windows

?

From: Rick Amr
Sent: Tuesday, January 11, 2022 10:48 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [JMT-groups.io] Thoughts on Snow Pack for mid-July to Mid Aug hike

?

Yes, now was somewhat crazy back in December, but January has been dry and no major rain/snow event is in sight. We are down to just ~20% over average and drop fast.
Follow along here:?

I do wish we’d have another high snow year though, we need the water + high snow Sierra hikes are epic!

Happy Trails

?

19EC1710D76C4B428A8DF321DD9A4A77.png
1DD952133FE544449C0067765B11591E.png

 

I hiked the JMT in mid to the end of August in 2017 and the mosquitos were pretty much everywhere, but I only found them to be bothersome during the day a couple of places.? It was more what you would expect, around dusk and in places near water.? I'm guessing it was typical of a month or 45 days earlier in an average(there is no normal in CA) snow year.

I will say that I'm glad I did it when I did as the scenery was simply spectacular and by that time the snow covered passes were easily manageable, with well defined routes.? I gained some snow hiking experience and confidence, without the risks and difficulty of hiking it a month earlier.

I happened to talk to a couple in Lone Pine at the bus stop a couple of days prior to my start and they were just off the trail.? They looked tired as you might expect, but in addition they didn't look happy.? Perhaps they were just exhausted, buy they didn't seem to have enjoyed the experience.? ?I can't say if it was all due to the conditions, but I recall them mentioning that as an issue for them.



On Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 1:42 AM Sam Molinari <sammolinari@...> wrote:

Realize that January has been somewhat of a slow start given the amount of snow in December.? Just remember that in 2018/ 2019, the year of Snowzilla, we had a great start in November but no real additional snow until the end of January and then didn’t stop until late April.? No one has been able to predict with certainty in January the snow totals for February and March.

?

Sent from for Windows

?

From: Rick Amr
Sent: Tuesday, January 11, 2022 10:48 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [JMT-groups.io] Thoughts on Snow Pack for mid-July to Mid Aug hike

?

Yes, now was somewhat crazy back in December, but January has been dry and no major rain/snow event is in sight. We are down to just ~20% over average and drop fast.
Follow along here:?

I do wish we’d have another high snow year though, we need the water + high snow Sierra hikes are epic!

Happy Trails

?
Sam Molinari
 

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Being from New England, winter hiking meant learning to navigate trails with ice and snow, including proper use of an ice axe and the ability to self arrest.? Even with experience, snow travel can be physically demanding and tiring.? To anyone who is planning either a PCT or JMT hike this year in early summer, I strongly suggest getting some experience on traveling on snow including self arrest technique. There are guides in Lone Pine, Bishop and Mammoth that can provide such experience. Snow travel can be a unique and fun experience but you need to know before you go. ??

?

Sent from for Windows

?

From: Curt Kinchen
Sent: Wednesday, January 12, 2022 5:30 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [JMT-groups.io] Thoughts on Snow Pack for mid-July to Mid Aug hike

?

I hiked the JMT in mid to the end of August in 2017 and the mosquitos were pretty much everywhere, but I only found them to be bothersome during the day a couple of places.? It was more what you would expect, around dusk and in places near water.? I'm guessing it was typical of a month or 45 days earlier in an average(there is no normal in CA) snow year.

?

I will say that I'm glad I did it when I did as the scenery was simply spectacular and by that time the snow covered passes were easily manageable, with well defined routes.? I gained some snow hiking experience and confidence, without the risks and difficulty of hiking it a month earlier.

?

I happened to talk to a couple in Lone Pine at the bus stop a couple of days prior to my start and they were just off the trail.? They looked tired as you might expect, but in addition they didn't look happy.? Perhaps they were just exhausted, buy they didn't seem to have enjoyed the experience.? ?I can't say if it was all due to the conditions, but I recall them mentioning that as an issue for them.

?

?

?

On Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 1:42 AM Sam Molinari <sammolinari@...> wrote:

Realize that January has been somewhat of a slow start given the amount of snow in December.? Just remember that in 2018/ 2019, the year of Snowzilla, we had a great start in November but no real additional snow until the end of January and then didn’t stop until late April.? No one has been able to predict with certainty in January the snow totals for February and March.

?

Sent from for Windows

?

From: Rick Amr
Sent: Tuesday, January 11, 2022 10:48 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [JMT-groups.io] Thoughts on Snow Pack for mid-July to Mid Aug hike

?

Yes, now was somewhat crazy back in December, but January has been dry and no major rain/snow event is in sight. We are down to just ~20% over average and drop fast.
Follow along here:?

I do wish we’d have another high snow year though, we need the water + high snow Sierra hikes are epic!

Happy Trails

?

?

348006E3E63C422ABCEECC85CE17C29C.png
319FB177A93443E59D4DDE4A81DC273C.png

 

As others have noted, it is indeed too early to tell. But if it remains an above-normal snow season, the trail will present an array of challenges (and some benefits too) that hikers should prepare for. I wrote about these factors after a late July 2017 South Lake to North Lake trek. You can see Wanda Lake and Evolution Basin looking rather wintry in the middle of summer!?
Dan Goldfield
 

Hi Sam,

I hiked NOBO from Horseshoe meadows in the record snow year of 2017.? ?End June - Mid July.
Some advice:? ?1) Get fit.? ?2) There was a ton of bugs.? They really kept me moving and prevented me from stopping more. 3) Prepare for snow.? ?The muir pass had ~6-8 miles of snow.? All major passes required ascents and traverses through snow trails made by early PCT hikers (who were much more adventurous and bold.? ?I took cramp ons and a snow axe and was very lucky I took both 4) River crossing were no joke.? ?South Fork Kings was the hardest, evolution upstream crossing was slow moving but up to my neck, bear creek was fast, but shallow and there was a tree down which made it easier.? There were several others (if you want them dm me and I'll check my notes), that were tricky but doable.? Many campsites were taken, were flooded, or were closed.....so don't plan on that particular site you always wanted....you'll get what you get and may have to walk a few extra miles to find one.? ? ?5) I overestimated my ability and underestimated the trail, don't make this mistake.? Be honest with yourself about safety and what you can do.? ?Dumb luck and fitness was the only reason I survived.? (I had a bad knee, and went slow, but I have strong endurance).? ?
Good luck!
C Brown
 

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I did the same trip mid augest. 2017. ?Crossing and snow was mostly gone by then. ? I would have been VERY uncomfortable earlier. ?Whenever you go fitness is most important!

On Jan 13, 2022, at 11:01, Dan Goldfield via groups.io <datadan_1@...> wrote:

?Hi Sam,

I hiked NOBO from Horseshoe meadows in the record snow year of 2017.? ?End June - Mid July.
Some advice:? ?1) Get fit.? ?2) There was a ton of bugs.? They really kept me moving and prevented me from stopping more. 3) Prepare for snow.? ?The muir pass had ~6-8 miles of snow.? All major passes required ascents and traverses through snow trails made by early PCT hikers (who were much more adventurous and bold.? ?I took cramp ons and a snow axe and was very lucky I took both 4) River crossing were no joke.? ?South Fork Kings was the hardest, evolution upstream crossing was slow moving but up to my neck, bear creek was fast, but shallow and there was a tree down which made it easier.? There were several others (if you want them dm me and I'll check my notes), that were tricky but doable.? Many campsites were taken, were flooded, or were closed.....so don't plan on that particular site you always wanted....you'll get what you get and may have to walk a few extra miles to find one.? ? ?5) I overestimated my ability and underestimated the trail, don't make this mistake.? Be honest with yourself about safety and what you can do.? ?Dumb luck and fitness was the only reason I survived.? (I had a bad knee, and went slow, but I have strong endurance).? ?
Good luck!

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