Stephen, I agree that your experience is typical. I have snagged a permit in the past by watching the cancelations every day.?
I¡¯m trying something new this year: When I submit a permit request for the JMT I am also requesting local Yosemite-only hiking permits at a lower priority. That way, if I only get a Yosemite-only permit, I can justify going ahead and buying airplane tickets (from Georgia) in advance. That will give me another chance at getting a walk-up permit for the JMT. Worst case, I spend a week hiking in Yosemite.?
Steve Perry