On Sat, Aug 28, 2021 at 11:59 AM John Ladd <johnladd@...> wrote:
I plan to issue a detailed report on "Plan B" hikes, defined as exiting at a trailhead short of the planned exit
Most interesting finding to me is that the most experienced hikers are MORE likely switch to a Plan B. I think they have less of a "bucket list" mentality and adapt their plans to reality. I know that for me, it is more important to spend the number of days that I planned, and the exit trailhead is often adjusted to the reality of the hike
Another interesting finding is that solo hikers switch to Plan B more often that hikers in groups. I would not have expected that, since one person's problems can lead several people to exit. But apparently the support of hiking companions makes intended hike completion more likely,
Early season hikers are more likely to switch to Plan B than August hikers, at least in heavy snow years.
Men and women have abut the same Plan B rate.
Roughly speaking, even for later start dates. over 25% of JMT hikers exit short of their intended exit. Presumably those who plan a full JMT have a higher Plan B rate than section hikers (the survey covers both). One of the reasons that it is complicated is that I need to analyze separately depending on experience level and planned hike distance as the as otherwise the data could be easily misunderstood.
You may find the reports on why people switch to Plan B interesting. They are included in this search of the reports Drive folder
-- John Curran Ladd 1616 Castro Street San Francisco, CA? 94114-3707 415-648-9279
