Re: IARU and Amateur Radio are Reaching ¡°an Inflection Point
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Tim Ellam VE6SH seems oblivious to the collapse in the hobby that already happened in Canada.
Perhaps his misunderstanding stems from the fact that amateur radio was made Licence Exempt in 2000 with callsigns being allocated for 125 years. This means each year the number of callsigns allocated increases never mind that most have given up the hobby or are dead.
ARRL spend their time writing glowing press releases above the apparent increase in the US amateur population. Now I guess to be fair it's part of ARRL's job to put a Positive Spin on everything related to the hobby but it ignores the underlying hollowing out of the hobby which will inevitably lead to a collapse in the numbers.
The model of very high barriers to entry which some countries have promoted to the rest of of the world for decades is a failure. Look at Africa, Dozens of new nations were born in the 1950s/60s but the failed model of amateur radio that was promoted to them meant the hobby never got started in those new countries. Today we have over 40 African countries with next to no amateur radio, except for brief visits from foreign DXpeditions.
1.2 Billion people with 800 million mobile phones but no amateur radio.
Even for the one nation in Africa that has has a significant amateur population - South Africa - the outlook is dire.
South Africa adopted the bureaucratic, rigid, elitist model with high barriers to entry found in countries like the UK. While they did eventually copy the UK's Foundation Class with their 100 watt Class B their National Society crippled it by asking the Regulator for lots of petty restrictions.? Holders must be aged under 26, exams are only held twice a year and I believe there's only a couple of venues in the entire country where you can sit it. In addition to that the national society dreamed up all sorts of pointless Practical Assessments to be completed which require a suitably authorised person to oversee them.? The result is they only get about 6 new Class B amateurs a year.
I think IARU leadership has not yet woken up to the extent of the changes that are needed.
73 Trevor M5AKA
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