开云体育

The squall line associated with this severe thunderstorm watch should be in our area near or a little before 11 PM Jim Robinson, W5ZYX SEL5 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 335 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 915 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Texas into Middle/Upper Texas Coast Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 915 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Convective line moving through central Texas is expected to continue southeastward this evening into more of southeast Texas and eventually the Middle/Upper Texas Coast. Warm and moist conditions exist downstream, which should help to maintain strong to severe thunderstorms within this line. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but some isolated hail is possible as well. There is also a low probability chance of a brief line-embedded tornado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north of Huntsville TX to 25 miles west southwest of Victoria TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 331...WW 332...WW 333...WW 334... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Get BlueMail for Desktop

The possibility of stormy weather returns Memorial Day with Madison, Houston and Trinity counties and the northern parts of Brazos and Walker counties marked by SPC with a slight chance (Level 2 of 5) and the remainder of southeast Texas generally north of IH10 given a marginal (Level 1) chance. Rainfall chances will be on the high side both Monday and Tuesday as a series of shortwave disturbances move across and a cold front sags into the area. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlooked southeast Texas north of IH10 with a marginal risk of excessive rainfall (Level 1 of 4) on Monday. Monday's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlook follows below. Jim Robinson, W5ZYX Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern and central High Plains on Monday, as southwest flow persists over much of the south-central U.S. Early in the day, warm-advection-related convection is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period over parts of the southern Plains. Morning storms will hamper destabilization in some areas, especially further north into parts of Oklahoma and the Ozarks. The effective cold front could be located near the Red River extending eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. To the south, model forecasts suggest that strong instability will develop by midday. As surface heating takes place, and low-level convergence increases near the front, scattered thunderstorm initiation is expected in the afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that storm coverage will increase in the afternoon, developing southward across parts of north and central Texas. The ECMWF has been relatively consistent with scenario from run to run. Forecast soundings from the ECMWF at 00Z/Monday within parts of this unstable airmass have 0-6 km shear above 30 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. Since deep-layer shear is forecast to be marginal for supercells, a mixed mode would be expected. Near instability maxima, supercells could form and have a large hail threat. In other areas where instability is lessened, short line segments with severe gusts would be favored. ...Southeast... A west-southwesterly mid-level flow pattern is expected over the Southeast. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As surface temperatures warm across this airmass during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop in some areas. Thunderstorms appear likely to form along pre-existing boundaries and along focused zones of low-level convergence. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, low-level lapse rates will likely become steep in areas that heat up the most. This should support marginally severe wind gusts with multicells that become locally intense. ..Broyles.. 05/24/2025 Get BlueMail for Desktop