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Hard Freeze Several Nights Next Week
The models are coming into better agreement that our weather is going to turn cold--in fact, very cold--from this weekend into next week. The initial cold front is expected to reach the Brazos Valley by early Saturday morning and move offshore by afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to accompany the front and low temperatures Sunday morning across southeast Texas are forecast to be in the 30s north to the 40s closer to the coast. The initial front will be followed by a strong arctic outbreak which will bring very cold conditions to southeast Texas. Current model runs (which are subject to change) are forecasting lows on Monday and Tuesday mornings from the 20s inland to lower 30s along the coast. Hard freeze conditions (24 or lower) are likely north of IH-10 and particularly so across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. By Tuesday morning, wind chills across the northern counties of southeast Texas (Brazos/Madison/Houston) may fall into single digits. The very cold overnight low temperatures are expected to continue nightly through Friday. Forecasters are also monitoring the possibility of a coastal trough forming Monday near the mouth of the Rio Grande which might bring a chance of wintry precipitation into the forecast. Will update as the model solutions evolve. Jim Robinson, W5ZYX
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Quick Question - Membership
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Yes, that is a DCS code. We do not use CTCSS. The repeater is FM not digital although it uses a digital code for access. Most radios in the past 10 years or so have DCS capability. What radio do you have? I am forwarding this to our groups.io. Maybe someone else can help with your radio. Lee KV5M
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Colder Weather Ahead
While another outbreak of polar air will bring unseasonably colder temperatures to the area by the weekend, neither the ECMWF nor GFS models are forecasting any frozen precipitation for southeast Texas. ECMWF, however, is colder with next week's temperatures than is the GFS. For guidance purposes, the latest tabular runs of the two models are attached. Updates will be provided as the weekend approaches. Jim Robinson, W5ZYX Get BlueMail for Desktop
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Now: WCARG Meeting - Saturday, January 11, 2025
#cal-notice
WCARG Meeting When: Saturday, January 11, 2025 9:00am to 10:30am (UTC-06:00) America/Chicago Where: Walker County Storm Sherlter, 445 TX-75 Huntsville, TX GPS: 30.73614, -95.58279 Organizer: WCARG [email protected] View Event Description: Monthly meeting of the Walker County Amateur Radio Group followed by amateur radio license testing
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Rain chances across southeast Texas continue to increase this morning with locally heavy rain forecast for later today--particularly along the coast. An extremely limited chance also continues to exist for mixed winter precipitation for Madison, Houston and Trinity counties. The heaviest rain should occur along the coast as showers and storms become widespread this afternoon and peak this evening between 6 PM and midnight. NWS forecasters believe most locations in southeast Texas can expect to see 2-3 inches of rainfall through early Friday morning but a chance remains for locally higher amounts exceeding 4 inches--particularly along the coast. Two forecast images produced this morning by the NWS Houston-Galveston forecast office are attached. Jim Robinson, W5ZYX Get BlueMail for Desktop
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NWS Update: Increasing rain chances Thu-Fri | Hazardous Marine Conditions Persist
I am forwarding the weather update message for local governments that was sent by NWS this morning. It provides a comprehensive overview of the evolving rain situation for Thursday and Friday/ Jim Robinson, W5ZYX Get BlueMail for Desktop -------- Original Message -------- Subject: Fw: NWS Update: Increasing rain chances Thu-Fri | Hazardous Marine Conditions Persist Date: Wed Jan 08 2025 08:48:02 GMT-0600 (Central Standard Time) From: "Robinson, Jim (Office of Management and Budget)" <jim.robinson@...> To: "Jim Robinson" <robinson.jimw@...> From: NWS Houston - NOAA Service Account <nws.houston@...> Sent: Wednesday, January 8, 2025 7:19 AM Subject: NWS Update: Increasing rain chances Thu-Fri | Hazardous Marine Conditions Persist Good morning, Overview Rain chances will increase Thursday into Thursday night as a low pressure system moves across the upper Texas coast. There is a limited potential for wintry weather over the Piney Woods region early Thursday morning. Expect high rain chances late Thursday as the low moves along our coastal waters. Rain will taper off Friday morning as the low exits to our east. A colder airmass will filter across Southeast TX in the wake of the low and may result in below freezing temperatures Saturday morning for most of the local area. Upcoming Rain Chances & Excessive Rainfall Outlook A low pressure system is forecast to develop off the mid/south Texas coast late today and then track across the upper Texas coastal waters on Thursday. Look for precipitation to overspread the area Thursday morning into Friday morning as this occurs. Rainfall can be moderate to heavy at times and could lead to minor flooding in streets and low lying areas. It may also result in minor rises in creeks and bayous. Winter Weather There is still some potential for wintry weather early Thursday morning, mainly over the Piney Woods area. However, the onset of the rainfall may not occur until around sunrise Thursday and temperatures by then may be warm enough to suppress the development of wintry precipitation. Bottom line: Although the chance of wintry precipitation has decreased, there is still a non-zero chance for portions of the Piney Woods. Stay tuned for additional forecast updates. Point-forecast information can be found by clicking on this link. Cold Weather Sub-freezing temperatures and frigid wind chills are expected Friday night into Saturday morning. Marine A Low Water Advisory for Galveston Bay and a Small Craft Advisory for all the waters continue in effect this morning due to moderate to occasionally strong northeast winds and elevated seas. Moderate winds will prevail this afternoon through Thursday morning. Winds will strengthen and turn east Thursday as a low pressure system tracks into the Upper TX Coast. Small Craft Advisories will be likely. Wind gusts could reach Gale strength at times. Rough bay waters and seas of 7-11ft can be expected. Strong offshore winds and elevated seas will persist Friday. Abnormally low tides, in particular during the low tide period, may continue for the rest of the work week. Resources NWS Houston Galveston Phone Numbers: (281) 337-5074 ext. 232 or ext. 234 NWS Houston/Galveston Webpage: www.weather.gov/houston National Hurricane Center Webpage: www.hurricanes.gov Hourly Forecasts (Click Your Location) West Gulf River Forecast Center Webpage: www.weather.gov/wgrfc NWPS Webpage
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Added Folder /Jason Hampton/WCARG Certificate Templates
#file-notice
Jason N2TXS Hampton <im.n2txs@...> added folder /Jason Hampton/WCARG Certificate Templates Description: Team, these are the certificate templates. They are open for the club to use. Keep in mind, the files are "read only". After you download them to you computer, you will be prompted to "Save As" something else. Therefore keeping the original template file in tack. If you have any questions or concerns let me know.
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Chance for frozen precip looks over for Huntsville but continues to the north
The winter weather forecast for southeast Texas continues to evolve and while it will remain on the chilly side for the next several days, actual lows aren't expected to reach the hard freeze level. The threat of frozen precipitation has also ended for most of southeast Texas with the exception of Madison and Houston counties where a very low chance with little or no accumulation remains later in the week. NWS Houston-Galveston conducted a very informative 2 PM briefing for local government and the entire session is available for viewing at this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yERkAontFAg There are still considerable model differences between GFS and the ECMWF for rainfall and the briefing helps put our chances in better perspective. Jim Robinson, W5ZYX Get BlueMail for Desktop
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Cold Rain Likely Wednesday night into Thursday night
Its looking more and more like things are going to be cold and wet across southeast Texas beginning Wednesday night into Thursday night as a low pressure disturbance moves across the area from the Gulf. Both GFS and ECMWF are painting rainfall totals of 1-3 inches which much of the precip falling Thursday and Thursday night. While the heaviest rainfall should be closer to the coast, both models are forecasting greater than an inch for Walker and Madison counties. The NWS is closely monitoring the possible track of a freezing/frozen precipitation shield that is expected to be moving across central Texas Wednesday night into Thursday. Current thinking is that the area from Brazos County into Madison and Houston counties could see some freezing rain or possible sleet/snow during that period and the latest forecasts are advertising a possible wintery mix across that area Wednesday night/early Thursday. The NBM model is giving College Station a 20-25% freezing rain chance with this increasing to a 45-50% chance around Crocket. The potential for wintry weather is greater in the counties north of OSR. Jim Robinson, W5ZYX
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GFS Tabular Forecast for Huntsville
To give you a weather insight for the next 10 days I've attached the 06Z GFS tabular output for Huntsville. ECMWF is in general agreement as to periods of rain but isn't forecasting any snow this week while GFS hints at a trace. Best guess is we won't see any but its not out of the question. Jim Robinson, W5ZYX Get BlueMail for Desktop
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Front will arrive by noon
The strong cold front will reach Walker County by noon and be near or off the coast by sunset. There will be a chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms out ahead of and along the cold front capable of producing strong wind gusts or a brief tornado. The arriving polar air will result in a dramatic temperature change. Cold weather will be around much of this week. In addition, a low pressure disturbance will move through the area during midweek and bring precipitation to southeast Texas. While we are most likely to see only rain from the disturbance, forecasters at the NWS Houston-Galveston office note there is a "non-zero" chance for a wintry mix in the northern counties including Walker. Otherwise, low temperatures this week will fall generally into the 20s and one or more nights with a hard freeze are likely. The official forecast for Walker County follows: Today: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. Temperature rising to near 71 by noon, then falling to around 53 during the remainder of the day. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 26. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Monday: Sunny, with a high near 43. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 23. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 47. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Wednesday Night: A slight chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Thursday: A chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet before noon, then rain showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51. NWS has decided to use new advisory language this year. The revised definitions follow: - Freeze Warning: Unlike previous years, the Hard Freeze and Freeze Warnings have been combined into one Freeze Warning product. We still will generally only issue a Freeze Warning once per county each winter for when temperatures are 32F for at least 2 consecutive hours. We have already issue a Freeze Warning for Montgomery County northwards this season. However, we will issue a Freeze Warning again for when Hard Freezing conditions (when temperatures fall to 24F for at least 2 consecutive hours) are expected. Freeze Warnings for Hard Freezing conditions will be issued as many times as needed through the winter season. - Cold Weather Advisory: This replaces the old Wind Chill Advisory, and will be issued when temperatures or wind chills fall are 25F for Harris County and counties southwards, and 20F northwards to Houston County. (see www.weather.gov/hgx/WWA_criteria for a visual representation of the criteria) - Extreme Cold Watch or Warning: These replace the old Wind Chill Watch or Warning products, and will be issued when temperatures or wind chills 15F for Harris County and counties southwards, and 10F northwards to Houston County. (see www.weather.gov/hgx/WWA_criteria for a visual representation of the criteria) Jim Robinson, W5ZYX
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Rather than write my own analysis I am forwarding the latest outlook for local government from the forecasters at NWS/HGX. Updates will be provided if the forecast picture changes. Jim Robinson, W5ZY Bottom Line A strong cold front will push into Southeast Texas on Sunday ushering in much colder temperatures that will last well into next week. A few strong to severe storms are possible ahead of and along the boundary of the cold front on Sunday. What Has Changed Since Previous Email? There is a slight risk of severe weather north of I-10 and east of I-45 on Sunday with a marginal risk elsewhere. Forecast remains on track for much colder temperatures throughout next week. Overview As a strong cold front approaches Southeast Texas on Sunday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of and along its boundary. A few of these storms could become strong to severe in the morning to afternoon hours, especially north of I-10 and east of I-45. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined this area in a slight risk of severe weather (level 2 out of 5). A marginal risk of severe weather (level 1 out of 5) exists elsewhere. The main hazards will be damaging winds and brief tornadoes. Behind the cold front, much colder air filters into Southeast Texas with low temperatures at or below freezing possible as early as Sunday night and well into next week. This includes the potential for multiple nights of below-freezing temperatures in portions of Southeast Texas deep into next week, but temperatures will rise above freezing during the daytime hours mainly into the 40s. The low end of the low temperature range looks to fall between the mid 20s to low 30s. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty on the potential for wintry precipitation around the middle of next week as it all depends on how far northward a coastal system in the western Gulf moves. While the probabilities for wintry precipitation on Wednesday/Thursday are low, they are not zero, so be sure to stay up to date on the latest forecasts. Below are some probabilistic temperature outlooks that show the probabilities of below-freezing temperatures Sunday night through Wednesday night. The higher the probability, the higher our confidence for seeing below-freezing temperatures. Monday night and Tuesday night have the greatest potential for widespread sub-freezing temperatures. A deterministic temperature outlook is also being included to show what we have in our current forecast (which has trended slightly cooler from yesterday's forecast). The bottom line is to prepare for an extended period of colder temperatures, some of which will include periods of below freezing temperatures. Probability of Below-Freezing Temperatures (Sunday Night) Probability of Below-Freezing Temperatures (Monday Night) Probability of Below-Freezing Temperatures (Tuesday Night) Probability of Below-Freezing Temperatures (Wednesday Night) Deterministic Temperature Outlook (Saturday-Thursday) Down below are some tips on how to prepare for the upcoming cold weather. Hazardous Marine Conditions In the wake of the front, moderate to strong northerly to northeasterly winds will prevail late Sunday into Monday morning with the potential for gale-force gusts in the Gulf waters and low waters in the bays during low tide. Mariners can expect a period of caution to advisory level conditions due to elevated winds and seas into next week. Seas may build to 7-10 feet in the Gulf waters Sunday into Monday as moderate to strong offshore flow prevails.
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Want to know what DMR is and how you can get Radio Active with it!
2
Back in September 2024, Jason/N2TXS and I set out to understand what DMR 'digital mobile radio' was and how we could get on the air using this mode. Linked below is a compilation of our learnings to becoming radio active with DMR. For those interested in learning more or considering venturing into using this radio mode - please reach out to either Jason to myself. Thanks, Rick Link to presentation
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The CPC today again updated its long range outlook to insist that very cold weather is coming thanks to the expected southeasterly shift of the polar vortex. Their December 31 update graphic is attached and still gives our area a moderate risk for unusually cold winter weather during the January 8-14 period. Its interesting that the meteorologist for ERCOT was talking about this possibility over a month ago. The GFS model still isn't biting hard on extreme cold for southeast Texas but does give our area a dusting of snow in the 14-15 January period. For now, rather than speculate, I've simply attached the graphical GPS run centered on Huntsville which covers the period in question. I will produce updates as the situation dictates but possibly not until we see better model agreement for what really to expect in southeast Texas. In the meantime, the best advice is simply to prepare for cold weather and remember the 4 Ps: Pets, Plants, Pipes, People. Jim Robinson, W5ZYX Jim Robinson, W5ZYX Get BlueMail for Desktop
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Net Tonight
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The net tonight was outstanding. Laura with her soothing, welcoming voice and Russ with his lively and humorous patter made a great team. At times I thought I was listening to News at 10 on one of the Houston TV channels. The review of the year was especially good, and I hope these two will agree to do the year-end net next year. A tradition is born! The number of activities was amazing, and that is the main reason we continue to grow with a growing regional reputation. Keep it up everyone. Get Radioactive!! Lee KV5M
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While considerable variability exists this evening among the major models, all indications point toward polar air spilling down and bringing very cold weather to much of the central and eastern United States. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is predicting that effects will extend as far south as our area in Southeast Texas. It may be several days before the models come into better agreement. As of this evening, only ECMWF and the Canadian GEM are forecasting snow in Southeast Texas with CPC indicating a slight risk for the January 7-9 period. The ECMWF forecast currently paints up to .4 inch accumulation in parts of Southeast Texas on the 8th and 9th. The best current advice is to prepare for cold weather with temperatures possibly falling into the teens on some days (still very significant model disagreement on how cold it will get and several models presently don't get nearly this cold). See the CPC advisory message below. Their graphic is attached. Jim Robinson, W5ZYX Key Messages from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center Issued December 30, 2024 Significant Arctic Outbreak to Expand Across Much of the Central and Eastern US (a) A significant pattern change is expected across much of the country as an Arctic Outbreak is forecast to spread from the Northern Plains to the south and east, leading to exceptionally high probabilities of below-normal temperatures expected across much of the East. (b) The coldest air of the season to date and dangerous wind chills are likely across many areas of the Southeast. Below freezing temperatures are possible as far south as the Gulf Coast and much of the Florida Peninsula. Impacts to highly sensitive citrus crops are possible. (c) Frozen precipitation is possible across the parts of the Southern Plains and Southeast with the potential for heavy snow extending northward to include much of Appalachians, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, and Northeast, potentially leading to significant travel disruptions. Additionally, heavy Lake Effect snow is likely to enhance totals for areas downwind of the Great Lakes as the Arctic Air pushes south across partially unfrozen waters. Please review the NWS Winter Preparedness Checklist at https://www.weather.gov/media/arx/winter/WinterPrepare.pdf
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MARS Mod - FT-991a - completed
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One youtube video, screwdriver, magnifying headset w/ light, soldering iron, one jumper and 40 minutes - done. Complements my mod¡¯ed FT-710. Now I can participate in SHARES and MARS on both rigs. Note: Reportedly, the FT-991a VHF/UHF Tx can be temporarily unlocked by entering three finger service menu mode, with tx power limited to a usable 10 watts. I¡¯ve not personally tested. /Rick
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Event: WCARG Breakfast - Saturday, December 28, 2024
#cal-reminder
Reminder: WCARG Breakfast When: Saturday, December 28, 2024 9:00am to 10:00am (UTC-06:00) America/Chicago Where: Denny's, 3016 11th St, Huntsville, TX 77340 Organizer: WCARG [email protected] View Event Description: Walker County Amateur Radio Group Breakfast. Anyone interested in ham radio, whether licensed or not, is invited.
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Modulator December - 2024
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Here is a newsletter from my buddy¡¯s club in East Tennessee. Lee KV5M Begin forwarded message: From: Big South Fork Amateur Radio Club <w4bsf@...> Subject: Modulator December - 2024 Date: December 20, 2024 at 11:37:17 AM CST To: Lee Murrah <mlmurrah@...> Reply-To: Big South Fork Amateur Radio Club <w4bsf@...> View this in your browser. Volume 32 Number 12- December 2024The ModulatorNewsletter and happenings of the Big South Fork Amateur Radio Club. ¿ªÔÆÌåÓý the Big South Fork Region since 1992.If you enjoy reading our publication, be sure to open it fully or you will be automatically dropped from our mailing list in 6 months. Merry Christmas!GET ON THE AIR!! Interested in emergency communications? We have team in Fentress, Morgan and Scott counties looking for volunteers. ARES Are you a YL (Young Lady) looking for your very own net? Look no further we have one for you! If your OM is licensed, he can be your control operator for you to get on the air with us. Next NET is Tuesday November 8th at 7pm EDT. YL NET ARRL has announced free membership for full-time students aged 21 and younger. ARRL Membership Club Bi-Monthly MeetingJanuary 9, 2025Our next club meeting will be held on January 9th - 2025 at 7:00pm Eastern at Roane State Community College in Hunstville TN. This will be our bi-monthly business meeting plus a meet & greet. We always meet the 2nd Thursday of each month. Our agenda will include yearly planning of special events and training sessions.Bi-Monthly Training Session(Open to everyone in our communities)February 13, 2025 February 13, 2025Free Class 6:00pm to 8:00PMRoane State Community College410 W.H. Swain BoulevardHuntsville, TN 37756NWS encourages anyone with an interest in public service to join the SKYWARN? program. Volunteers include police and fire personnel, dispatchers, EMS workers, public utility workers and other concerned private citizens. Individuals affiliated with hospitals, schools, churches and nursing homes or who have a responsibility for protecting others are encouraged to become a spotter. As a amateur radio operator we play a special role in providing real time communications. Training is free and typically lasts about 2 hours. You'll learn: Basics of thunderstorm development Fundamentals of storm structure Identifying potential severe weather features Information to report How to report information Basic severe weather safetyPlease register directly with the NWS as BSFARC is only hosting/promoting the class as a public service to our community. NWS Class Website (External Link)Winlink, or formally, Winlink Global Radio Email(registered US Service Mark), also known as the Winlink 2000 Network, is a worldwide radio messaging system that uses amateur-band radio frequencies and government frequencies to provide radio interconnection services that include email with attachments, position reporting, weather bulletins, emergency and relief communications, and message relay. The system is built and administered by volunteers and is financially supported by the Amateur Radio Safety Foundation. Let us know at the January meeting if you are interested in a hands-on Winlink class.Meeting MinutesIf you did NOT receive the meeting minutes for the last meeting you may have been dropped from the club roster. Our member only portal password has also been changed. Contact Kelly KI4JAV (KI4JAV at gmail.com) to check on your membership status. Our dues are still only $10.00 per year for the first person in your household! We are searching for a volunteer for the Morgan County ARES EC position. Must be at least a technician level and have an interest in emergency communications. We can help with the training!The club is also looking for another Extra Class license holder to join our VE team to help us administer licensing exams through the ARRL program.Previous copies of 'The Modulator' are now on our web site. You can also subscribe to the newsletter there too. MODULATOR NEWSLETTER ARCHIVESState QSO PartiesA State QSO Party is a contest where you try to work as many stations as possible in a specific state
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