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Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF/MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. It’s the only accurate daily global HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. If you find this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at thomasfgiella@... I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Supporting images associated with this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm and in my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm Last but not least here is my new HF/MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast >>>>>W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t. On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.<<<<< #351 Issued Sunday December 16, 2018 at 1615 UTC Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- Solar activity was very low. The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 72.4 71.2 72.1. There had been 11 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) of 70 or above. The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 12. There had been 2 consecutive days with an official sunspot number (DSSN) greater than 0. In 2018 there had been 206 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. There had been a sunspot group numbered 12731 located near N11E36 with a relatively simple beta magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small B class solar flare and an isolated small C class solar flare. The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. You rarely see a day with Earth’s magnetic field so quiet that you have 8 consecutive goose eggs. The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 2 & 0, which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between -3 & +7 nT. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was 338 & 281 km/s. >>>>>GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-<<<<< HF/MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Dec 15, 2018- steady. HF/MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Dec 16, 2018- minor deterioration. HF/MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Dec 17, 2018- improvement. Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- >>>>>We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption.<<<<< Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+15 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S1-3 at night and S5-8 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. >>>>>GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-<<<<< FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH- -East <-> West To 1100 Mi /1800 km S9-+5 *North <-> South To 1100 Mi /1800 km S9-+1 +South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km S5-7 FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH- -East <-> West To 1100 Mi / 1800 km S9+5 *South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km S9-+1 +North <-> South To 1100 Mi / 1800 km S5-7 FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- High Latitude S5-7 Mid Latitude S9+10 Low latitude S4-6 FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- High Latitude S5-7 Mid Latitude S9+5 Low latitude S4-6 This HF/MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF/MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it still can’t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and PropLab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check global HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. >>>>>THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S IONOSPHERE.<<<<< Globally HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). >>>>>GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-<<<<< NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. >>>>>GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-<<<<< Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic proton flux levels no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels of A0 for several days consecutively. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Also HF/MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF/MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. It’s the only accurate daily global HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. If you find this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at thomasfgiella@... I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Supporting images associated with this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm and in my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm Last but not least here is my new HF/MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast >>>>>W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t. On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.<<<<< #350 Issued Saturday December 15, 2018 at 1515 UTC Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- Solar activity was very low. The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 71.5 70.8 71.7. There had been 10 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) of 70 or above. The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 12. There had been 1 day with an official sunspot number (DSSN) greater than 0. In 2018 there had been 206 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. There had been a newly emerged sunspot group numbered 12731 located near N11E49 with a simple beta magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small B class solar flare and an isolated small C class solar flare. The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0. The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 3 & 0, which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between -7 & +5 nT. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was 361 & 317 km/s. >>>>>GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-<<<<< HF/MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Dec 15, 2018- steady. HF/MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Dec 16, 2018- minor deterioration. HF/MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Dec 17, 2018- steady. Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- >>>>>We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption.<<<<< Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+15 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S1-3 at night and S5-8 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. >>>>>GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-<<<<< FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH- -East <-> West To 1100 Mi /1800 km S9-+5 *North <-> South To 1100 Mi /1800 km S9-+1 +South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km S5-7 FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH- -East <-> West To 1100 Mi / 1800 km S9+5 *South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km S9-+1 +North <-> South To 1100 Mi / 1800 km S5-7 FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- High Latitude S5-7 Mid Latitude S9+10 Low latitude S4-6 FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- High Latitude S5-7 Mid Latitude S9+5 Low latitude S4-6 This HF/MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF/MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it still can’t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and PropLab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check global HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. >>>>>THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S IONOSPHERE.<<<<< Globally HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). >>>>>GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-<<<<< NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. >>>>>GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-<<<<< Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic proton flux levels no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels of A0 for several days consecutively. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Also HF/MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Just an FYI! I have begun producing a daily (MF) medium frequency radio wave propagation forecast in unison with the HF one. The MF forecast follows the HF forecast. Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF/MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. It’s the only daily global HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. If you find this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at thomasfgiella@... I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Supporting images associated with this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm and in my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm Last but not least here is my new HF/MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast >>>>>W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to >>>>>the point. Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t. On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.<<<<< #342 Issued Friday December 7, 2018 at 1545 UTC Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- Solar activity was very low. The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 70.2 69.7 69.6. There had been 20 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) below 70. The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 17. There had been 2 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (SSN) above 0. In 2018 prior to the above event there had been 203 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. There had been one sunspot group numbered 12729 located near S05W52 with a relatively simple beta magnetic signature capable of releasing an isolated small C class solar flare. The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1. The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 7 & 4, which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between -13 & +14 nT. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was 381 & 347 km/s. Global Daily HF/MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast- HF/MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Dec 7, 2018- steady. HF/MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Dec 8, 2018- minor deterioration. HF/MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Dec 9, 2018- steady. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH- -East <-> West To 1100 Mi /1800 km S9 *North <-> South To 1100 Mi /1800 km S7-9 +South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km S5-7 FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH- -East <-> West To 1100 Mi / 1800 km S9 *South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km S7-9 +North <-> South To 1100 Mi / 1800 km S5-7 FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- High Latitude S4-6 Mid Latitude S4-6 Low latitude S5-7 FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- High Latitude S4-6 Mid Latitude S7-9 Low latitude S5-7 We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of MF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic proton flux levels no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels of A0 for several days consecutively. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S IONOSPHERE. This HF/MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF/MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP. And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. The MF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. Globally HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio wave propagation conditions in a negative manner. Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Also HF/MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Sorry for being MIA since November 14, 2018, as I've been under the weather so to speak with some adult life long medical issues. Hopefully I'll be able return with my "W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast" sometime during the upcoming week. 73 & GUD DX, Thomas F. Giella, W4HM Lakeland, FL, USA /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm

>>>>>Just an FYI! I have begun producing a daily (MF) medium frequency radio >>>>>wave propagation forecast in unison with the HF one. The MF forecast >>>>>follows the HF forecast.<<<<< Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF/MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. It’s the only daily global HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. If you find this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at thomasfgiella@... I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Supporting images associated with this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm and in my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm Last but not least here is my new HF/MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast >>>>>W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to >>>>>the point. Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t. On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.<<<<< #319 Issued Wednesday November 14, 2018 at 1815 UTC Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- Solar activity was low. The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 68.0 67.0 66.0. There had been 20 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) below 70. The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 11. There had been 3 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (SSN) above 0. In 2018 prior to the above event there had been 190 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. There had been one sunspot group numbered 12726 located near N04W13 with a relatively alpha magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small B class solar flare. The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0. The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 7 & 0, which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between -15 & +5 nT. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was 550 & 421 km/s. Global Daily HF/MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast- HF/MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Nov 14, 2018- improvement. HF/MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Nov 15, 2018- steady. HF/MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Nov 16, 2018- steady. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. >>>>>GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION >>>>>CONDITIONS EXPECTED-<<<<< FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH- -East <-> West To 1100 Mi /1800 km S9+6 *North <-> South To 1100 Mi /1800 km S7-9 +South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km S5-7 FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH- -East <-> West To 1100 Mi / 1800 km S9+6 *South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km S7-9 +North <-> South To 1100 Mi / 1800 km S5-7 FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- High Latitude S4-6 Mid Latitude S9+6 Low latitude S5-7 FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- High Latitude S4-6 Mid Latitude S9-+6 Low latitude S5-7 We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of MF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic proton flux levels no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels of A0 for several days consecutively. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S IONOSPHERE. This HF/MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF/MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP. And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. >>>The MF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna.<<< Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. Globally HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio wave propagation conditions in a negative manner. Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Also HF/MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

>>>>>Just an FYI! I have begun producing a daily (MF) medium frequency radio >>>>>wave propagation forecast in unison with the HF one. The MF forecast >>>>>follows the HF forecast.<<<<< Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF/MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. It’s the only daily global HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. If you find this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at thomasfgiella@... I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Supporting images associated with this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm and in my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm Last but not least here is my new HF/MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast >>>>>W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to >>>>>the point. Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t. On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.<<<<< #318 Issued Tuesday November 13, 2018 at 1545 UTC Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- Solar activity was low. The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 68.1 68.2 67.9. There had been 19 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) below 70. The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 15. There had been 2 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (SSN) above 0. In 2018 there had been 190 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. There had been one sunspot group numbered 12726 located near N06W09 with a relatively simple beta magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small B class solar flare and an isolated small C class solar flare. The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of 2 3 3 2 2 1 2 2. The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 15 & 3, which had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between -21 & -8 nT. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was 648 & 539 km/s. Global Daily HF/MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast- HF/MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Nov 13, 2018- improvement. HF/MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Nov 14, 2018- steady. HF/MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Nov 15, 2018- steady. Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. >>>>>GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION >>>>>CONDITIONS EXPECTED-<<<<< FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH- -East <-> West To 1100 Mi /1800 km S9 *North <-> South To 1100 Mi /1800 km S7-9 +South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km S5-7 FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH- -East <-> West To 1100 Mi / 1800 km S9 *South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km S7-9 +North <-> South To 1100 Mi / 1800 km S5-7 FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- High Latitude S4-6 Mid Latitude S4-6 Low latitude S5-7 FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- High Latitude S4-6 Mid Latitude S7-9 Low latitude S5-7 Medium frequency (300-3000 kHz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S IONOSPHERE. This HF/MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF/MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP. And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. The MF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on a 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio wave propagation conditions in a negative manner. Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible, something that happens rarely. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Also HF/MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at thomasfgiella@... I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm and in my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ->->->W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t. On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent<- <- <- #310 Issued Monday November 5, 2018 at 1530 UTC Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- Solar activity was very low. The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 67.7 66.6 67.6. There had been 11 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) below 70. The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. There had been 19 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0. In 2018 there had been 184 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a minor geomagnetic storming level to a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 1 1 1 1 3 5 5. The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 48 & 3, which had been at a minor geomagnetic storming level to quiet geomagnetic condition. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between -20 & +11 nT. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 515 & 339 km/s. Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast- HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Nov 5, 2018- minor to moderate deterioration. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Nov 6, 2018- improving. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Nov 7, 2018- improving. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S IONOSPHERE. This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP. And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio wave propagation conditions in a negative manner. Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible, something that happens rarely. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at thomasfgiella@... I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm and in my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ->->->W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t. On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent<- <- <- #309 Issued Sunday November 4, 2018 at 1630 UTC Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- Solar activity was very low. The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 68.3 67.4 67.5. There had been 10 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) below 70. The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. There had been 18 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0. In 2018 there had been 183 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1. The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 7 & 0, which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between -20 & +11 nT. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 353 & 324 km/s. Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast- HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Nov 4, 2018- steady then minor deterioration. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Nov 5, 2018- minor to moderate deterioration. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Nov 6, 2018- minor deterioration to improving. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S IONOSPHERE. This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP. And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio wave propagation conditions in a negative manner. Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible, something that happens rarely. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at thomasfgiella@... I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm and in my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ->->->W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t. On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent<- <- <- #303 Issued Tuesday October 30, 2018 at 1600 UTC Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- Solar activity was very low. The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 68.5 68.8 68.4 There had been 6 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) below 70. The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. There had been 14 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0. In 2018 there had been 179 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 2 2 2 0 1 1 1. The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 6 & 0, which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between +25 & +10 nT. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 333 & 286 km/s. Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast- HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 30, 2018- minor deterioration. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 31, 2018- steady. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Nov 1, 2018- improvement. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S IONOSPHERE. This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP. And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio wave propagation conditions in a negative manner. Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible, something that happens rarely. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at thomasfgiella@... I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm and in my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ->->->W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t. On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent<- <- <- #302 Issued Monday October 29, 2018 at 1500 UTC Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- Solar activity was very low. The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 68.3 68.3 67.9 There had been 5 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) lower than 70. The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. There had been 13 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0. In 2018 there had been 178 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0. The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 7 & 0, which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between +23 & +7 nT. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 349 & 292 km/s. Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast- HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 29, 2018- steady then minor deterioration. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 30, 2018- minor deterioration. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 31, 2018- steady. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S IONOSPHERE. This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP. And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio wave propagation conditions in a negative manner. Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible, something that happens rarely. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at thomasfgiella@... I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm and in my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ->->->W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t. On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent<- <- <- #301 Issued Sunday October 28, 2018 at 1530 UTC Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- Solar activity was very low. The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 68.9 69.3 69.0 There had been 4 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) lower than 70. The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. There had been 12 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0. In 2018 there had been 177 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0. The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 6 & 0, which was at a quiet geomagnetic condition. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between +16 & +2 nT. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 439 & 339 km/s. Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast- HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 28, 2018- steady. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 29, 2018- steady then minor deterioration. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 30, 2018- minor deterioration. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S IONOSPHERE. This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP. And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio wave propagation conditions in a negative manner. Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible, something that happens rarely. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at thomasfgiella@... I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm and in my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t. On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. #283 Issued Wednesday October 10, 2018 at 1545 UTC Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- Solar activity was very low. The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 69.0 69.5 69.8 There had been 8 consecutively days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) below 70. The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. There had been 5 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0. In 2018 there had been 163 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. There had been no earth facing sunspot group(s). The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 3. The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 18 & 9. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between -23 & -7. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 553 & 522 km/s. Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast- HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 10, 2018- improving. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 11, 2018- improving. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 12, 2018- steady. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S IONOSPHERE. This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP. And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio wave propagation conditions in a negative manner. Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible, something that happens rarely. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at thomasfgiella@... I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm and in my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t. On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. #282 Issued Tuesday October 9, 2018 at 1500 UTC Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- Solar activity was very low. The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 68.6 68.8 68.3 There had been 8 consecutively days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) below 70. The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. There had been 4 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0. In 2018 there had been 162 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. There had been no earth facing sunspot group(s). The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an active to quiet geomagnetic condition of 4 4 3 2 4 3 2 1. The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 32 & 5. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between -33 & -6. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 574 & 519 km/s. Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast- HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 9, 2018- steady. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 10, 2018- improving. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 11, 2018- improving. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S IONOSPHERE. This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP. And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio wave propagation conditions in a negative manner. Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible, something that happens rarely. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at thomasfgiella@... I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm and in my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t. On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. #279 Issued Saturday October 6, 2018 at 1545 UTC Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- Solar activity was very low. The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 68.6 68.7 67.7 There had been 5 days consecutively with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) below 70. The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. There had been 1 day with an official daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0. There had been no earth facing sunspot group. In 2018 there had been 159 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 2. The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 15 & 3. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 424 & 349 km/s. Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast- HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 6, 2018- steady. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 7, 2018- minor to moderate deterioration. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 8, 2018- Moderate to major deterioration. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP. And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio wave propagation conditions in a negative manner. Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible, something that happens rarely. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at thomasfgiella@... I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm and in my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t. On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. #280 Issued Sunday October 7, 2018 at 1545 UTC Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- Solar activity was very low. The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 68.6 68.6 68.4 There had been 6 days consecutively with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) below 70. The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. There had been 2 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0. In 2018 there had been 160 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. There had been no earth facing sunspot group. The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0. The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 12 & 0. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between +29 & -6. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 351 & 344 km/s. Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast- HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 7, 2018- minor to moderate deterioration. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 8, 2018- moderate to major deterioration. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 9, 2018- major deterioration. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S IONOSPHERE. This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP. And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio wave propagation conditions in a negative manner. Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible, something that happens rarely. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Hello to all out there in radio land. Sorry for being MIA the past 14 days. I have paying customers and they had to come first. The fall/spring equinox period can be very active as far as geomagnetic storms and the workload increases. 73 & GUD DX, Thomas F. Giella, W4HM Lakeland, FL, USA /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at thomasfgiella@... I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm and in my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images. It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t. On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. #235 Issued Friday August 24, 2018 at 1445 UTC Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- Solar activity was very low. The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 70.4 69.5 69.5 There had been 19 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) less than 70. The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 15. There had been 10 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (SSN) of greater than 0. Earth facing sunspot group #12719 located near S07W08, had a beta-gamma magnetic signature capable of releasing a small C class solar flare. (((((A newly emerged earth facing sunspot group #12720 located near N08W17, had a relatively complex beta magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small B class solar flare.))))) In 2018 there had been 132 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1. The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 7 & 2. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 449 & 347 km/s. Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast- HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 24, 2018- steady then minor deterioration. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 25, 2018- minor deterioration. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 26, 2018- steady Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period. During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated. Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period. During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated. This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP. And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio wave propagation conditions in a negative manner. Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible, something that happens rarely. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at thomasfgiella@... I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm and in my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images. It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t. On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. #234 Issued Thursday August 23, 2018 at 1600 UTC Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- Solar activity was very low. The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 68.1 66.9 67.0 There had been 18 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) less than 70. The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 12. There had been 9 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (SSN) of greater than 0. Earth facing sunspot group #12719 located near S06E05, has a simple alpha magnetic signature capable of releasing a very, very small A class solar flare. In 2018 there had been 132 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 2. The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 7 & 2. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 544 & 423 km/s. Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast- HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 23, 2018- improvement. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 24, 2018- minor deterioration. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 25, 2018- minor to moderate deterioration. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period. During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated. Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period. During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated. This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP. And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio wave propagation conditions in a negative manner. Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible, something that happens rarely. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at thomasfgiella@... I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm and in my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images. It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t. On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. #187 Issued Saturday July 7, 2018 at 1600 UTC Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- Solar activity was very low. The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 69.3 70.5 71.1 There had been 1 day with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of 70 or higher. There had been 8 days consecutively with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) less than 70. The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. There had been 10 days consecutively with a daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. In 2018 there had been 96 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. There was no earth facing (geo effective) sunspot group. There had been one small C1.6 class solar flare in association with a sunspot group yet to rise around the eastern limb of the sun. The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet to unsettled geomagnetic condition of 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 2. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 464 & 375 km/s. Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast- HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 7, 2018- steady. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 8, 2018- steady. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 9, 2018- minor deterioration. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period. During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated. Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period. During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated. This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP. And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio wave propagation conditions in a negative manner. Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible, something that happens rarely. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at thomasfgiella@... I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm and in my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images. It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t. On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. #223 Issued Sunday August 12, 2018 at 1400 UTC Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- Solar activity was very low. The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 67.7 67.4 67.3 There had been 7 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) less than 70. The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. There had been 9 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. There had been 43 of the past 46 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. In 2018 there had been 130 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an active to quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 2 2 2 3 2 2 4. The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 27 & 5. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 382 & 344 km/s. Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast- HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 12, 2018- minor deterioration. HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 13, 2018- steady HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 14, 2018- improvement. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period. During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated. Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- 3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day, 6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day, 13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day, 21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day, 24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period. During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated. This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP. And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio wave propagation conditions in a negative manner. Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible, something that happens rarely. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.