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W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2018-353
¿ªÔÆÌåÓý? Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. ? Welcome to my ¡°not for profit¡± W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2019. ? If you find this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at ? ? I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. ? Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Supporting images associated with this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at ? https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm ? and in my Twitter account at ? https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm? ? Last but not least here is my new HF-MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. ? It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? ? W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn¡¯t. ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. ? #5 issued Saturday January 5, 2019 at 1630 UTC ? Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- ? Solar activity was very low. ? The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were ? 72.3 71.5 72.0. ? There had been 4 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) above 70. ? Unfortunately daily SFI numbers in the 70¡¯s doesn¡¯t increase ionization via ultraviolet light striking the F2 layer to raise the maximum usable frequency (MUF) high enough to activate the 15, 12 and 10 meter bands. ? The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 13. ? In 2019 there had been 4 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) greater than 0. ? In 2018 there had been 221 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? There had been one sunspot group numbered 12732 located near N09W60 with a relatively complex beta magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small B class solar flare. ? ? The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet to unsettled geomagnetic condition of ? 1 0 1 2 2 2 3 3. ? The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between ? 18 & 2, ? which had been at an active to quiet geomagnetic condition. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between ? -17 & +14 nT. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was ? 385 & 278 km/s. ? GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Jan 5, 2019- minor deterioration. ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Jan 6, 2019- minor to moderate deterioration. ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Jan 7, 2019- improving. ? Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season. ? The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. ? Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at
day, ? ? GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? ? This HF-MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF-MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and Prop Lab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. ? THE FOLLOWING IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR, SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND IONOSPHERE GOINGS ON. ALSO HF AND MF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS AND FORECASTING. Globally HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. ? Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. ? The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. ? Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. ? Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. ? Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF-MF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2019 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. ? All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. ? 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. ? 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. ? 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. ? 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. ? 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. ? 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. ? 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. ? 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. ? 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A
daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the
E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. ? Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2019 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF-MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? ? ? |
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W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2018-353
¿ªÔÆÌåÓý? Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. ? Welcome to my ¡°not for profit¡± W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2019. ? If you find this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at ? ? I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. ? Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Supporting images associated with this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at ? https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm ? and in my Twitter account at ? https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm ? ? Last but not least here is my new HF-MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. ? It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? ? W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn¡¯t. ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. ? #4 issued Friday January 4, 2019 at 1730 UTC ? Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- ? Solar activity was very low. ? The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were ? 73.9 72.6 72.4. ? There had been 3 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) above 70. ? Unfortunately daily SFI numbers in the 70¡¯s doesn¡¯t increase ionization via ultraviolet light striking the F2 layer to raise the maximum usable frequency (MUF) high enough to activate the 15, 12 and 10 meter bands. ? The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 16. ? In 2019 there had been 3 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) greater than 0. ? In 2018 there had been 221 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of ? 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0. ? The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between ? 5 & 0, ? which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between ? -4 & +15 nT. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was ? 362 & 298 km/s. ? GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Jan 4, 2019- steady. ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Jan 5, 2019- minor deterioration. ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Jan 6, 2019- minor to moderate deterioration. ? Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season. ? The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. ? Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at
day, ? ? GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? ? This HF-MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF-MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and Prop Lab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. ? THE FOLLOWING IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR, SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND IONOSPHERE GOINGS ON. ALSO HF AND MF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS AND FORECASTING. Globally HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. ? Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. ? The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. ? Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. ? Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. ? Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF-MF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2019 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. ? All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. ? 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. ? 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. ? 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. ? 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. ? 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. ? 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. ? 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. ? 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. ? 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A
daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the
E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. ? Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2019 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF-MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? ? ? |
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W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2018-353
¿ªÔÆÌåÓý? Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. ? Welcome to my ¡°not for profit¡± W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2019. ? If you find this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at ? ? I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. ? Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Supporting images associated with this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at ? https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm ? and in my Twitter account at ? https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm ? ? Last but not least here is my new HF-MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. ? It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? ? W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn¡¯t. ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. ? #3 issued Thursday January 3, 2019 at 1700 UTC ? Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- ? Solar activity was very low. ? The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were ? 74.9 75.2 74.6. ? The 2000 UTC 75.2 SFI value was the highest in at least the past 3 months. ? There had been 2 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) above 70. ? Unfortunately daily SFI numbers in the 70¡¯s doesn¡¯t increase ionization via ultraviolet light striking the F2 layer to raise the maximum usable frequency (MUF) high enough to activate the 15, 12 and 10 meter bands. ? The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 16. ? ? In 2019 there had been 2 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) greater than 0. ? In 2018 there had been 221 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of ? 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0. ? The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between ? 10 & 0, ? which had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between ? -15 & +5 nT. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was ? 362 & 298 km/s. ? GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Jan 3, 2019- steady. ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Jan 4, 2019- minor deterioration. ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Jan 5, 2019- moderate deterioration. ? Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season. ? The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. ? Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at
day, ? ? GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? ? This HF-MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF-MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and Prop Lab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. ? THE FOLLOWING IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR, SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND IONOSPHERE GOINGS ON. ALSO HF AND MF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS AND FORECASTING. Globally HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. ? Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. ? The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. ? Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. ? Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. ? Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF-MF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2019 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. ? All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. ? 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. ? 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. ? 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. ? 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. ? 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. ? 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. ? 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. ? 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. ? 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A
daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the
E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. ? Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2019 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF-MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? ? ?
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W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2018-353
¿ªÔÆÌåÓý? Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. ? Welcome to my ¡°not for profit¡± W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2019. ? If you find this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at ? ? I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. ? Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Supporting images associated with this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at ? https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm ? and in my Twitter account at ? https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm ? ? Last but not least here is my new HF-MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. ? It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? ? W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn¡¯t. ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. ? #2 Issued Wednesday January 2, 2019 at 1630 UTC ? Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- ? Solar activity was very low. ? The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were ? 71.9 71.9 73.0. ? There had been 1 day with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) above 70. ? The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 13. ? There had been 1 day with an official sunspot number (DSSN) above 0. ? In 2019 there had been 1 day with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? In 2018 there had been 221 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of ? 1 1 3 2 2 0 0 1. ? The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between ? 12 & 0, ? which had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between ? -16 & -1 nT. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was ? 445 & 353 km/s. ? GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Jan 2, 2019- steady. ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Jan 3, 2019- steady. ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Jan 4, 2019- minor deterioration. ? Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season. ? The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. ? Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at
day, ? ? GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? ? This HF-MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF-MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and Prop Lab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. ? THE FOLLOWING IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR, SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND IONOSPHERE GOINGS ON. ALSO HF AND MF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS AND FORECASTING. Globally HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. ? Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. ? The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. ? Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. ? Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. ? Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF-MF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2019 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. ? All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. ? 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. ? 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. ? 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. ? 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. ? 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. ? 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. ? 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. ? 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. ? 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A
daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the
E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. ? Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2019 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF-MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? ? ?
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W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2018-353
¿ªÔÆÌåÓý<<<<<I want to wish my Facebook friends around the world a very ¡°Happy New Year¡± in 2019 and also a safe and prosperous new year for all.>>>>> ? Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. ? Welcome to my ¡°not for profit¡± W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2019. ? If you find this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at ? ? I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. ? Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Supporting images associated with this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at ? https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm ? and in my Twitter account at ? https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm ? ? Last but not least here is my new HF-MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. ? It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? ? W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn¡¯t. ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. ? #1 Issued Monday January 1, 2019 at 1545 UTC ? Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- ? Solar activity was very low. ? The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were ? 69.5 69.3 69.4. ? There had been 6 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) below 70. ? The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. ? There had been 16 consecutive days with an official sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? In 2019 there had been 1 day with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? In 2018 there had been 221 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of ? 3 2 2 2 2 1 0 1. ? The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between ? 15 & 2, ? which had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between ? -20 & +1 nT. The data was unavailable. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was ? 475 & 416 km/s. ? GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Jan 1, 2019- steady. ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Jan 2, 2019- steady. ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Jan 3, 2019- steady. ? Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season. ? The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. ? Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at
day, ? ? GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? ? This HF-MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF-MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and Prop Lab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. ? THE FOLLOWING IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR, SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND IONOSPHERE GOINGS ON. ALSO HF AND MF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS AND FORECASTING. Globally HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. ? Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. ? The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. ? Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. ? Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. ? Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF-MF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2019 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. ? All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. ? 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. ? 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. ? 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. ? 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. ? 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. ? 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. ? 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. ? 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. ? 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A
daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the
E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. ? Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2019 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF-MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? ? ? |
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W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2018-353
¿ªÔÆÌåÓý<<<<<I want to wish my Facebook friends around the world a very ¡°Happy New Year¡± in 2019 and also a safe and prosperous new year for all.>>>>> ? Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. ? Welcome to my ¡°not for profit¡± W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. ? If you find this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at ? ? I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. ? Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Supporting images associated with this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at ? https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm ? and in my Twitter account at ? https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm ? ? Last but not least here is my new HF-MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. ? It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? ? W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn¡¯t. ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. ? #365 Issued Monday December 31, 2018 at 1630 UTC ? Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- ? Solar activity was very low. ? The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were ? 69.8 69.4 69.1. ? There had been 5 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) below 70. ? The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. ? There had been 15 consecutive days with an official sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? In 2018 there had been 221 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of ? 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 1. ? The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between ? 15 & 5, ? which had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between ? xx & xx nT. The data was unavailable. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was ? 549 & 451 km/s. ? GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 31, 2018- steady. ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Jan 1, 2018- improvement. ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Jan 2, 2019- improvement. ? Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season. ? The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. ? Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at
day, ? ? GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? This HF-MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF-MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and Prop Lab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. ? THE FOLLOWING IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR, SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND IONOSPHERE GOINGS ON. ALSO HF AND MF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS AND FORECASTING. Globally HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. ? Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. ? The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. ? Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. ? Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. ? Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF-MF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. ? All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. ? 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. ? 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. ? 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. ? 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. ? 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. ? 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. ? 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. ? 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. ? 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A
daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the
E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. ? Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF-MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? ?
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W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2018-353
¿ªÔÆÌåÓýGreetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. ? Welcome to my ¡°not for profit¡± W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. ? If you find this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at ? ? I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. ? Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Supporting images associated with this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at ? https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm ? and in my Twitter account at ? https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm ? ? Last but not least here is my new HF-MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. ? It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? ? W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn¡¯t. ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. ? #364 Issued Sunday December 30, 2018 at 1545 UTC ? Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- ? Solar activity was very low. ? The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were ? 67.0 69.0 69.5. ? There had been 4 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) below 70. ? The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. ? There had been 14 consecutive days with an official sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? In 2018 there had been 220 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of ? 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2. ? The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between ? 15 & 6, ? which had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between ? -8 & +22 nT. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was ? 587 & 449 km/s. ? GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 30, 2018- steady. ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 31, 2018- steady. ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Jan 1, 2019- improvement. ? Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season. ? The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. ? Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at
day, ? ? GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? ? This HF-MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF-MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and Prop Lab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. ? THE FOLLOWING IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR, SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND IONOSPHERE GOINGS ON. ALSO HF AND MF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS AND FORECASTING. Globally HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. ? Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. ? The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. ? Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. ? Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. ? Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF-MF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. ? All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. ? 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. ? 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. ? 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. ? 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. ? 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. ? 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. ? 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. ? 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. ? 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A
daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the
E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. ? Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF-MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? ?
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W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2018-353
¿ªÔÆÌåÓýGreetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. ? Welcome to my ¡°not for profit¡± W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. ? If you find this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at ? ? I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. ? Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Supporting images associated with this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at ? https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm ? and in my Twitter account at ? https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm ? ? Last but not least here is my new HF-MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. ? It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? ? W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn¡¯t. ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. ? #363 Issued Friday December 28, 2018 at 1600 UTC ? Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- ? Solar activity was very low. ? The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were ? 67.7 68.5 69.1. ? There had been 2 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) below 70. ? The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. ? There had been 12 consecutive days with an official sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? In 2018 there had been 218 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of ? 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2. ? <<<<<But today Friday December 28, 2016 the Kp index a reached 5, which is minor geomagnetic storming.>>>>> ? The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between ? 9 & 0, ? which had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between ? -8 & +22 nT. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was ? 370 & 284 km/s. ? GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 28, 2018- steady. ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 29, 2018- steady. ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 30, 2018- improvement. ? Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season. ? The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. ? Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at
day, ? ? GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? ? This HF-MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF-MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and Prop Lab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. ? THE FOLLOWING IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR, SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND IONOSPHERE GOINGS ON. ALSO HF AND MF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS AND FORECASTING. Globally HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. ? Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. ? The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. ? Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. ? Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. ? Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF-MF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. ? All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. ? 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. ? 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. ? 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. ? 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. ? 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. ? 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. ? 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. ? 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. ? 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A
daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the
E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. ? Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF-MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? |
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W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2018-353
¿ªÔÆÌåÓýGreetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. ? Welcome to my ¡°not for profit¡± W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. ? If you find this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at ? ? I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. ? Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Supporting images associated with this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at ? https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm ? and in my Twitter account at ? https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm ? ? Last but not least here is my new HF-MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. ? It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? ? W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn¡¯t. ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. ? #362 Issued Thursday December 27, 2018 at 1600 UTC ? Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- ? Solar activity was very low. ? The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were ? 69.6 68.7 68.4. ? There had been 1 day with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) below 70. ? Previously there had been 21 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) of 70 or above. But daily SFI numbers in the 70¡¯s don¡¯t increase ionization via ultraviolet light of the F2 layer raising the maximum usable frequency (MUF). ? The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. ? There had been 11 consecutive days with an official sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? In 2018 there had been 216 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? Officially there had been no earth facing sunspot group. ? <<<<<But unofficially a solar cycle 25 region emerged late in the day and had a spot which was large enough to be visible in 1K resolution images at 03:00 on December 27, its location then was N45W04. ? The above information was borrowed from http://www.solen.info/solar >>>>> ? The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of ? 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0. ? The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between ? 5 & 0, ? which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between ? -5 & +10 nT. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was ? 349 & 290 km/s. ? GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 27, 2018- steady. ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 28, 2018- minor deterioration. ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 29, 2018- minor deterioration. ? Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season. ? The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. ? Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at
day, ? ? GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? ? This HF-MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF-MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and Prop Lab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. ? THE FOLLOWING IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR, SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND IONOSPHERE GOINGS ON. ALSO HF AND MF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS AND FORECASTING. Globally HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. ? Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. ? The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. ? Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. ? Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. ? Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF-MF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. ? All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. ? 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. ? 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. ? 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. ? 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. ? 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. ? 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. ? 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. ? 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. ? 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A
daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the
E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. ? Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF-MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? ?
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W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2018-353
¿ªÔÆÌåÓýGreetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. ? Welcome to my ¡°not for profit¡± W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. ? If you find this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at ? ? I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. ? Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Supporting images associated with this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at ? https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm ? and in my Twitter account at ? https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm ? ? Last but not least here is my new HF-MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. ? It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? ? W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn¡¯t. ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. ? #361 Issued Wednesday December 26, 2018 at 1630 UTC ? Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- ? Solar activity was very low. ? The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were ? 70.0 70.0 69.6. ? There had been 21 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) of 70 or above. But daily SFI numbers in the 70¡¯s don¡¯t increase ionization via ultraviolet light of the F2 layer raising the maximum usable frequency (MUF). ? The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. ? There had been 10 consecutive days with an official sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? In 2018 there had been 216 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? There had been no earth facing sunspot group. ? The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of ? 1 2 0 0 1 1 1 1. ? The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between ? 6 & 0, ? which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between ? -7 & +7 nT. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was ? 348 & 282 km/s. ? GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 26, 2018- steady. ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 27, 2018- steady. ? HF-MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 28, 2018- minor deterioration. ? Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season. ? The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. ? Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at
day, ? GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? This HF-MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF-MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and Prop Lab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. ? THE FOLLOWING IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR, SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND IONOSPHERE GOINGS ON. ALSO HF AND MF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS AND FORECASTING. Globally HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. ? Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. ? The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. ? Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. ? Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. ? Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF-MF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. ? All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. ? 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. ? 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. ? 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. ? 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. ? 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. ? 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. ? 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. ? 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. ? 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A
daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the
E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. ? Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF-MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? ?
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W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2018-353
¿ªÔÆÌåÓýGreetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. ? Welcome to my ¡°not for profit¡± W4HM Daily HF/MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. ? If you find this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at ? ? I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. ? Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Supporting images associated with this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at ? https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm ? and in my Twitter account at ? https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm ? ? Last but not least here is my new HF/MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. ? It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? ? W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn¡¯t. ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. ? #359 Issued Monday December 24, 2018 at 1630 UTC ? Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- ? Solar activity was very low. ? The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were ? 71.1 70.2 68.9. ? There had been 19 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) of 70 or above. But daily SFI numbers in the 70¡¯s don¡¯t increase ionization via ultraviolet light of the F2 layer raising the maximum usable frequency (MUF). ? The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. ? There had been 8 consecutive days with an official sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? In 2018 there had been 214 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? There had been no earth facing sunspot group. ? The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of ? 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0. ? The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between ? 4 & 0, ? which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between ? -3 & +9 nT. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was ? 346 & 282 km/s. ? GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 24, 2018- steady. ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 25, 2018- steady. ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 26, 2018- minor deterioration. ? Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. ? The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. ? Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at
day, ? ? GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? ? This HF/MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF/MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and Prop Lab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. THE FOLLOWING IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR, SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND IONOSPHERE GOINGS ON. ALSO HF AND MF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS AND FORECASTING. Globally HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. ? Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. ? The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. ? Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. ? Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. ? Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. ? All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. ? 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. ? 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. ? 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. ? 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. ? 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. ? 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. ? 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. ? 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. ? 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A
daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the
E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. ? Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF/MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? ?
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W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2018-353
¿ªÔÆÌåÓýGreetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. ? Welcome to my ¡°not for profit¡± W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. ? If you find this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at ? ? I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. ? Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Supporting images associated with this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at ? https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm ? and in my Twitter account at ? https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm ? ? Last but not least here is my new HF/MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. ? It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? ? W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn¡¯t. ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. ? #358 Issued Sunday December 23, 2018 at 1600 UTC ? Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- ? Solar activity was very low. ? The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were ? 70.6 71.0 70.3. ? There had been 18 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) of 70 or above. But daily SFI numbers in the low 70¡¯s don¡¯t increase ionization via ultraviolet light of the F2 layer raising the maximum usable frequency (MUF). ? The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. ? There had been 7 consecutive days with an official sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? In 2018 there had been 213 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? There had been no earth facing sunspot group. ? The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of ? 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0. ? The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between ? 4 & 0, ? which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between ? -11 & +5 nT. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was ? 382 & 331 km/s. ? GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 23, 2018- steady. ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 24, 2018- steady. ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 25, 2018- steady. ? Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- ? We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. ? The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. ? Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at
day, ? ? GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? ? This HF/MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF/MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and Prop Lab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. ? THE FOLLOWING IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR, SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND IONOSPHERE GOINGS ON. ALSO HF AND MF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS AND FORECASTING. Globally HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. ? Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. ? The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. ? Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. ? Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. ? Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. ? All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. ? 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. ? 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. ? 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. ? 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. ? 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. ? 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. ? 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. ? 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. ? 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A
daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the
E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. ? Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF/MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? ? |
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W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2018-353
¿ªÔÆÌåÓýGreetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. ? Welcome to my ¡°not for profit¡± W4HM Daily HF/MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. ? If you find this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at ? ? I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. ? Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Supporting images associated with this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at ? https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm ? and in my Twitter account at ? https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm ? ? Last but not least here is my new HF/MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. ? It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? ? W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn¡¯t. ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. ? #357 Issued Saturday December 22, 2018 at 1630 UTC ? Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- ? Solar activity was very low. ? The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were ? 71.4 71.1 70.3 ? There had been 17 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) of 70 or above. ? But daily SFI numbers in the low 70¡¯s don¡¯t increase ionization via ultraviolet light of the F2 layer raising the maximum usable frequency (MUF). ? The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. ? There had been 6 consecutive days with an official sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? In 2018 there had been 212 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? There had been no earth facing sunspot group. ? The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of ? 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1. ? The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between ? 7 & 0, ? which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between ? -11 & -1 nT. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was ? 508 & 355 km/s. ? GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 22, 2018- steady. ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 23, 2018- steady. ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 24, 2018- steady. ? Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- ? We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. ? The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. ? Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at
day, ? ? GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? This HF/MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF/MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and Prop Lab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. ? THE FOLLOWING IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR, SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND IONOSPHERE GOINGS ON. ALSO HF AND MF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS AND FORECASTING. Globally HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. ? Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. ? The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. ? Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. ? Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. ? Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. ? All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. ? 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. ? 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. ? 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. ? 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. ? 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. ? 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. ? 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. ? 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. ? 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A
daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the
E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. ? Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF/MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? ? |
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W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2018-353
¿ªÔÆÌåÓýGreetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. ? Welcome to my ¡°not for profit¡± W4HM Daily HF/MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. ? If you find this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at ? ? I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. ? Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Supporting images associated with this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at ? https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm ? and in my Twitter account at ? https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm ? ? Last but not least here is my new HF/MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. ? It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? ? W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn¡¯t. ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. ? #356 Issued Friday December 21, 2018 at 1630 UTC ? Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- ? Solar activity was very low. ? The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were ? 69.8 70.0 70.5 ? There had been 16 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) of 70 or above. ? But daily SFI numbers in the low 70¡¯s don¡¯t increase ionization in the F/F2 layer. ? The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. ? There had been 5 consecutive days with an official sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? In 2018 there had been 211 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? There had been no earth facing sunspot group. ? The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet to unsettled geomagnetic condition of ? 3 3 3 2 1 1 2 3. ? The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between ? 15 & 4, ? which had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between ? -13 & -1 nT. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was ? 598 & 463 km/s. ? GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 21, 2018- steady. ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 22, 2018- steady. ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 23, 2018- steady. ? Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- ? We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. ? The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. ? Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at
day, ? GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? This HF/MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF/MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and PropLab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. ? THE FOLLOWING IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR, SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND IONOSPHERE GOINGS ON. ALSO HF AND MF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS AND FORECASTING. Globally HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. ? Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. ? The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. ? Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. ? Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. ? Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. ? All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. ? 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. ? 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. ? 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. ? 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. ? 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. ? 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. ? 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. ? 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. ? 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A
daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the
E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF/MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? ?
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W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2018-353
¿ªÔÆÌåÓýGreetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. ? Welcome to my ¡°not for profit¡± W4HM Daily HF/MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. ? If you find this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at ? ? I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. ? Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Supporting images associated with this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at ? https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm ? and in my Twitter account at ? https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm ? ? Last but not least here is my new HF/MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. ? It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? ? W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn¡¯t. ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. ? #355 Issued Thursday December 20, 2018 at 1630 UTC ? Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- ? Solar activity was very low. ? The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were ? 70.3 70.2 70.4 ? There had been 15 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) of 70 or above. ? The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. ? There had been 4 consecutive days with an official sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? In 2018 there had been 210 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? There had been no earth facing sunspot group. ? The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of ? 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2. ? The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between ? 9 & 3, ? which had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between ? -13 & +1 nT. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was 528 & 361 km/s. ? GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 20, 2018- steady. ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 21, 2018- steady. ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 22, 2018- steady. ? Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- ? We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. ? The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. ? Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at
day, ? ? GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? This HF/MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF/MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and PropLab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. ? THE FOLLOWING IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR, SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND IONOSPHERE GOINGS ON. ALSO HF AND MF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS AND FORECASTING. Globally HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. ? Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. ? The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. ? Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. ? Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. ? Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. ? All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. ? 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. ? 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. ? 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. ? 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. ? 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. ? 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. ? 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. ? 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. ? 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A
daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the
E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF/MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? ?
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W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2018-353
¿ªÔÆÌåÓýGreetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. ? Welcome to my ¡°not for profit¡± W4HM Daily HF/MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. ? If you find this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at ? ? I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. ? Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Supporting images associated with this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at ? https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm ? and in my Twitter account at ? https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm ? ? Last but not least here is my new HF/MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. ? It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? ? W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn¡¯t. ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. ? #354 Issued Wednesday December 19, 2018 at 1600 UTC ? Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- ? Solar activity was very low. ? The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were ? 70.3 70.4 70.1 ? There had been 14 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) of 70 or above. ? The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. ? There had been 3 consecutive days with an official sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? In 2018 there had been 209 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? There had been no earth facing sunspot group. ? The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of ? 3 2 1 1 2 2 2 1. ? The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between ? 12 & 3, ? which had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between ? -14 & +4 nT. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was 416 & 350 km/s. ? GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 19, 2018- steady. ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 20, 2018- steady. ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 21, 2018- steady. ? Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- ? We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. ? The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. ? Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at
day, ? ? GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? ? This HF/MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF/MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and PropLab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. ? THE FOLLOWING IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR, SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND IONOSPHERE GOINGS ON. ALSO HF AND MF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS AND FORECASTING. Globally HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. ? Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. ? The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. ? Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. ? Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. ? Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. ? All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. ? 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. ? 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. ? 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. ? 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. ? 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. ? 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. ? 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. ? 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. ? 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A
daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the
E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. ? Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF/MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? ? |
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W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2018-353
¿ªÔÆÌåÓýGreetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. ? Welcome to my ¡°not for profit¡± W4HM Daily HF/MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. ? If you find this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at ? ? I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. ? Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Supporting images associated with this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at ? https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm ? and in my Twitter account at ? https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm ? ? Last but not least here is my new HF/MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. ? It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? ? W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn¡¯t. ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. ? #353 Issued Tuesday December 18, 2018 at 1515 UTC ? Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- ? Solar activity was very low. ? The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were ? 71.1 70.1 70.0 ? There had been 13 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) of 70 or above. ? The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. ? There had been 2 consecutive days with an official sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? In 2018 there had been 208 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? There had been no earth facing sunspot group. ? The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of ? 0 1 2 1 1 1 2 2. ? The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between ? 9 & 2, ? which had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between ? -15 & +11 nT. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was 411 & 310 km/s. ? GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 18, 2018- improvement. ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 19, 2018- steady. ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 20, 2018- steady. ? Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- ? We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption. Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. ? The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. ? Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at
day, ? ? GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? ? This HF/MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF/MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and PropLab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. ? THE FOLLOWING IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR, SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND IONOSPHERE GOINGS ON. ALSO HF AND MF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS AND FORECASTING. Globally HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. ? Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. ? The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. ? Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. ? Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. ? Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. ? All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. ? 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. ? 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. ? 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. ? 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. ? 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. ? 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. ? 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. ? 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. ? 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A
daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the
E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF/MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? ?
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W4HM Daily HF & MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2018-352
¿ªÔÆÌåÓýGreetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. ? Welcome to my ¡°not for profit¡± daily W4HM Daily HF/MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. ? If you find this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at ? ? I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. ? Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Supporting images associated with this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at ? https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm ? and in my Twitter account at ? https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm ? ? Last but not least here is my new HF/MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. ? It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? ? W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn¡¯t. ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. ? #352 Issued Monday December 17, 2018 at 1615 UTC ? Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- ? Solar activity was very low. ? The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were ? 70.0 70.0 70.7 ? There had been 12 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) of 70 or above. ? But SFI numbers in the low 70¡¯s don¡¯t do anything to increase ionization in the F/F2 layer. ? The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0. ? There had been 2 consecutive days with an official sunspot number (DSSN) greater than 0. ? In 2018 there had been 207 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? There had been no earth facing sunspot group. ? The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of ? 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1. ? The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between ? 4 & 1, ? which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between ? -2 & +25 nT. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was 430 & 303 km/s. ? GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 16, 2018- minor deterioration. ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 17, 2018- steady. ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 18, 2018- improvement. ? Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- ? We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption.<<<<< Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. ? The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. ? Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at
day, ? ? GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? ? This HF/MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF/MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and PropLab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. ? THE FOLLOWING IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR, SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND IONOSPHERE GOINGS ON. ALSO HF AND MF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS AND FORECASTING. Globally HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. ? Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. ? The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. ? Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. ? Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. ? Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. ? All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. ? 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. ? 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. ? 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. ? 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. ? 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. ? 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. ? 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. ? 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. ? 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. ? GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- ? Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A
daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the
E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. ? Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF/MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? |
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W4HM Daily HF/MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2018-351
¿ªÔÆÌåÓýGreetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. ? Welcome to my ¡°not for profit¡± daily W4HM Daily HF/MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. ? If you find this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at ? ? I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. ? Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Supporting images associated with this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at ? https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm ? and in my Twitter account at ? https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm ? ? Last but not least here is my new HF/MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. ? It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? ? >>>>>W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn¡¯t. ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.<<<<< ? #351 Issued Sunday December 16, 2018 at 1615 UTC ? Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- ? Solar activity was very low. ? The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were ? 72.4 71.2 72.1. ? There had been 11 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) of 70 or above. ? The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 12. ? There had been 2 consecutive days with an official sunspot number (DSSN) greater than 0. ? In 2018 there had been 206 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? There had been a sunspot group numbered 12731 located near N11E36 with a relatively simple beta magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small B class solar flare and an isolated small C class solar flare. ? ? The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of ? 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. You rarely see a day with Earth¡¯s magnetic field so quiet that you have 8 consecutive goose eggs. ? The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between ? 2 & 0, ? which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between ? -3 & +7 nT. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was 338 & 281 km/s. ? >>>>>GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-<<<<< ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 15, 2018- steady. ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 16, 2018- minor deterioration. ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 17, 2018- improvement. ? Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- ? >>>>>We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption.<<<<< Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. ? The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. ? Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at
day, ? ? >>>>>GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-<<<<< ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? ? This HF/MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF/MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and PropLab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. ? >>>>>THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH¡¯S IONOSPHERE.<<<<< Globally HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. ? Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. ? The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. ? Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. ? Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. ? Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? >>>>>GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-<<<<< ? NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. ? All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. ? 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. ? 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. ? 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. ? 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. ? 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. ? 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. ? 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. ? 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. ? 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. ? >>>>>GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-<<<<< ? Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A
daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the
E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. ? Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF/MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? ?
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W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
#2018-350
¿ªÔÆÌåÓýGreetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world. ? Welcome to my ¡°not for profit¡± daily W4HM Daily HF/MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast. ? It¡¯s the only accurate daily global HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet. ? I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years. ? This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ? 1988-2018. ? If you find this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me know that at ? ? I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts. ? Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in broadening their knowledge in science. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Supporting images associated with this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at ? https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm ? and in my Twitter account at ? https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm ? ? Last but not least here is my new HF/MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast via email. ? It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a password. ? /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast ? ? >>>>>W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. ? Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth¡¯s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn¡¯t. ? On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.<<<<< ? #350 Issued Saturday December 15, 2018 at 1515 UTC ? Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices- ? Solar activity was very low. ? The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were ? 71.5 70.8 71.7. ? There had been 10 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) of 70 or above. ? The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 12. ? There had been 1 day with an official sunspot number (DSSN) greater than 0. ? In 2018 there had been 206 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0. ? There had been a newly emerged sunspot group numbered 12731 located near N11E49 with a simple beta magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small B class solar flare and an isolated small C class solar flare. ? The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of ? 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0. ? The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between ? 3 & 0, ? which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between ? -7 & +5 nT. ? The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was 361 & 317 km/s. ? >>>>>GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-<<<<< ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 15, 2018- steady. ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 16, 2018- minor deterioration. ? HF/MF radio wave propagation condition ¡°trend¡± on Dec 17, 2018- steady. ? Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b- ? >>>>>We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated. The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption.<<<<< Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at
day, 28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day. ? Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g- ? We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF/MF radio wave propagation season. ? The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated. ? Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP). ? 3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at
day, ? ? >>>>>GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-<<<<< ? FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH- Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km- ?
? ? This HF/MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF/MF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980¡¯s but I¡¯m sorry to say that it still can¡¯t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and PropLab. I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. ? I also check global HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when necessary. ? And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the globe. ? The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet. ? The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array antenna. ? The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna. ? Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast. ? >>>>>THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH¡¯S IONOSPHERE.<<<<< Globally HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. ? Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path. ? The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. ? Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. ? Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio. ? Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? >>>>>GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-<<<<< ? NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the HF radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. ? All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible, something that happens only rarely. ? 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. ? 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. ? 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. ? 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. ? 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. ? 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). ? 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. ? 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. ? 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. ? 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. ? >>>>>GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-<<<<< ? Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays. There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4. Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible. The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best. 3.) A
daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the
E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 13. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. ? Standard Disclaimer- ? Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). ? However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. ? Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it. ? Also HF/MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. ? ? ?
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