开云体育

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#227 Issued Thursday August 16, 2018 at 1430 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 68.5 68.8 69.3

There had been 10 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) less than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 12.

There had been 2 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of greater than 0.

There had been one earth facing sunspot group #12718 located near S08E38, with a fairly simple beta magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small B class solar flare.

In 2018 there had been 132 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an active to quiet geomagnetic condition of 2 1 2 3 4 3 3 3.

The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 27 & 4.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 530 & 311 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 16 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 17, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 18, 2018- improvement.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#226 Issued Wednesday August 15, 2018 at 1700 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 69.4 68.7 69.1

There had been 9 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) less than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 12.

(((((There had been 1 day with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of greater than 0.)))))

(((((There had been one newly emerged earth facing sunspot group #12718 located near S08E51, with a fairly simple beta magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small B class solar flare.)))))

Previously there had been 11 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

Previously there had been 45 of the past 48 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.
In 2018 there had been 132 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1.

The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 5 & 0.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 384 & 285 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 15 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 16, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 17, 2018- improvement.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aformentioned disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#225 Issued Tuesday August 14, 2018 at 1345 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 67.9 67.8 66.4

There had been 8 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) less than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 11 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There had been 45 of the past 48 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 132 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

On Tuesday August 14, 2018 a new plage rose around the eastern limb of the sun located at approximately S08E55. There may be one tiny sunspot associated with the plage and it could be numbered later today if it survives.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1.

The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 5 & 2.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 385 & 344 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 14 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 15, 2018- steady then minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 16, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#224 Issued Monday August 13, 2018 at 1430 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 69.3 68.1 67.6

There had been 7 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) less than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 10 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There had been 44 of the past 47 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 131 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 2.

The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 6 & 3.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 373 & 351 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 13, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 14, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 15, 2018- minor deterioration.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#223 Issued Sunday August 12, 2018 at 1400 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 67.7 67.4 67.3

There had been 7 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) less than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 9 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There had been 43 of the past 46 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 130 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an active to quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 2 2 2 3 2 2 4.

The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 27 & 5.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 382 & 344 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 12, 2018- minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 13, 2018- steady

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 14, 2018- improvement.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#222 Issued Saturday August 11, 2018 at 1430 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 69.5 69.5 69.4

There had been 6 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) less than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 8 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There had been 42 of the past 45 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 129 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1.

The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 4 & 2.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 361 & 346 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 11, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 12, 2018- steady then minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 13, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#221 Issued Friday August 10, 2018 at 1445 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 70.3 69.6 70.2

There had been 5 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) less than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 7 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There had been 41 of the past 44 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 128 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1.

The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 5 & 2.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 380 & 279 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 10, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 11, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 12, 2018- steady then minor deterioration.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#220 Issued Thursday August 9, 2018 at 1430 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 70.6 69.6 69.8

There had been 4 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) less than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 7 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 128 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.

The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between 5 & 3.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
428 & 354 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 9, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 10, 2018- steady then minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 11, 2018- minor to moderate deterioration.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#219 Issued Wednesday August 8, 2018 at 1415 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 70.1 69.5 69.2

There had been 3 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) lower than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 6 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 127 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of 2 2 1 2 3 2 3 2.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 366 & 281 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 8, 2018- minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 9, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 10, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#218 Issued Tuesday August 7, 2018 at 1515 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 69.1 69.1 69.1

There had been 2 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) lower than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 5 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 126 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 339 & 277 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 7, 2018- minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 8, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 9, 2018- improving.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+15 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S1-3 at night and S5-8 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#217 Issued Monday August 6, 2018 at 1415 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 68.9 69.2 68.7

There had been 1 day with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) lower than 70.

There had been 3 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 4 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 125 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 356 & 299 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 6, 2018- steady then minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 7, 2018- minor to moderate deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 8, 2018- moderate to minor deterioration.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+15 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S1-3 at night and S5-8 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#216 Issued Sunday August 5, 2018 at 1415 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 70.3 70.2 69.6

There had been 3 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 3 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 124 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 358 & 325 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 5, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 6, 2018- steady then minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 7, 2018- minor to moderate deterioration.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+15 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S1-3 at night and S5-8 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#215 Issued Saturday August 4, 2018 at 1500 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 70.3 70.2 69.6

There had been 2 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 2 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 123 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 1 1 2 2 1 0 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 380 & 335 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 4, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 5, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 6, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+15 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S1-3 at night and S5-8 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#214 Issued Friday August 3, 2018 at 1415 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 70.1 69.9 69.6

There had been 1 day with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) lower than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 1 day with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 122 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 410 & 356 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 3, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 4, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 5, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+15 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S1-3 at night and S5-8 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#213 Issued Thursday August 2, 2018 at 1400 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 69.7 (((((70.2))))) 71.0

There had been 1 day with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 11.

In 2018 there had been 121 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

(((((There had been one newly emerged earth facing sunspot group, 12717 located near S07E25, with a simple alpha magnetic signature capable of releasing a small B class solar flare.

But on Thursday August 2, 2018 sunspot group #12717 has decayed into a plage region again.)))))

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 2 1 0 1 1 2 2 2.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 420 & 285 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 2, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 3, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 4, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+15 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S1-3 at night and S5-8 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#212 Issued Wednesday August 1, 2018 at 1430 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 67.6 68.3 68.8

A new plage group has risen above the eastern limb of the sun and could bump the DSFI numbers above 70.

There had been 10 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of less than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 10 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0 and 34 of the past 35 days.

In 2018 there had been 121 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing sunspot group(s).

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 2.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 332 & 284 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 1, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 2, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 3, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+15 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S1-3 at night and S5-8 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#211 Issued Tuesday July 31, 2018 at 1415 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 67.6 68.3 68.8.

A new plage group has risen above the eastern limb of the sun and could bump the daily DSFI numbers above 70.

There had been 9 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of less than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 9 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0 and 33 of the past 34 days.

In 2018 there had been 120 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing sunspot group(s).

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 0 0 0 2 1 2 2.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 339 & 277 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 31, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 1, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 2, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+15 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S1-3 at night and S5-8 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#210 Issued Monday July 30, 2018 at 1400 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 68.0 68.0 68.4

There had been 8 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of less than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 8 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0 and 32 of the past 33 days.

In 2018 there had been 119 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing sunspot group(s).

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 360 & 288 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 30, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 31, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 1, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+15 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S1-3 at night and S5-8 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#209 Issued Sunday July 29, 2018 at 1445 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 66.3 67.9 68.7

There had been 7 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of less than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 7 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0 and 31 of the past 32 days.

In 2018 there had been 118 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing sunspot group(s).

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 374 & 309 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 29, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 30, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 31, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+15 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S1-3 at night and S5-8 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#208 Issued Saturday July 28, 2018 at 1315 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 66.6 66.6 66.3

There had been 6 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of less than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 6 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0 and 30 of the past 31 days.

In 2018 there had been 117 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing sunspot group(s).

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 426 & 350 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 28, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 29, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 30, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).
Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.