开云体育

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#207 Issued Friday July 27, 2018 at 1430 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 66.4 66.2 66.2

There had been 5 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of less than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 5 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 116 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing sunspot group(s).

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
484 & 400 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 27, 2018- improvement.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 28, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 29, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).
Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#206 Issued Thursday July 26, 2018 at 1430 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 66.4 (((((65.8))))) 65.9

(((((The 65.8 figure is the lowest so far in the decline of solar cycle 24 and the lowest in the approximately the past 10 years.)))))

There had been 4 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of less than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 4 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 115 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing sunspot group(s).

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 2.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
559 & 467 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 26, 2018- improvement.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 27, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 28, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#205 Issued Wednesday July 25, 2018 at 1415 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 66.2 66.9 66.7

There had been 3 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of less than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 3 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 114 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing sunspot group(s).

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an active to quiet geomagnetic condition of 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 4.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
613 & 540 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 25, 2018- minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 26, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 27, 2018- improvement.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#204 Issued Tuesday July 24, 2018 at 1345 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 66.7 67.0 66.8

There had been 2 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of less than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 2 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 113 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing sunspot group(s).

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at quiet geomagnetic condition of 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 588 & 385 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 24, 2018- minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 25, 2018- moderate deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 26, 2018- minor deterioration.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#203 Issued Monday July 23, 2018 at 1400 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 67.7 68.2 67.9

There had been 1 day with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of less than 70.

There had been 16 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 1 day with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 11.

There had been 1 day with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 112 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There had been one newly emerged directly earth facing (geo effective) sunspot group, 12716 located near N16W04, with a simple alpha magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small A class solar flare.

Per my guess cast yesterday sunspot group #12716 lasted only 1 day and has since dissipated.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been a quiet geomagnetic condition of 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 452 & 401 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 23, 2018- steady then minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 24, 2018- moderate deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 25, 2018- minor deterioration.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#202 Issued Sunday July 22, 2018 at 1400 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 70.2 70.0 69.5

There had been 16 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of 70 or higher.

(((((The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 11.)))))

There had been 1 day with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 11.

There had been 24 days consecutively with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 111 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There had been one newly emerged directly earth facing (geo effective) sunspot group, 12716 located near N16W04, with a simple alpha magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small A class solar flare.

It’s doubtful that it will exist very long.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of 2 2 3 3 3 2 1 2.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 544 & 378 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 22, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 23, 2018- minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 24, 2018- moderate deterioration.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#201 Issued Saturday July 21, 2018 at 1445 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 70.1 70.5 70.2

There had been 15 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 24 days consecutively with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 110 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing (geo effective) sunspot group(s).

(((((But unofficially this Saturday morning July 21, 2018 a very small sunspot is trying to emerge near N16E15.)))))


The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 .

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
431 & 361 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 21, 2018- minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 22, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 23, 2018- moderate deterioration.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#200 Issued Friday July 20, 2018 at 1500 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 71.7 70.5 70.2

There had been 14 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 23 days consecutively with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 110 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing (geo effective) sunspot group(s).

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
378 & 326 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 20, 2018- minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 21, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 22, 2018- improving.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +5 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 5 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S4-5 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S2-4 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#199 Issued Thursday July 19, 2018 at 1500 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 71.6 71.2 71.1

There had been 13 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 22 days consecutively with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 109 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing (geo effective) sunspot group(s).

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 413 & 334 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 19, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 20, 2018- minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 21, 2018- improving.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +5 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 5 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S4-5 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S2-4 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Just an FYI, I have a Kenwood R-2000 receiver for sale. It’s in good condition and I’m asking $225 including shipping to the lower 48 states. For AK and HI it’s actual shipping cost, as well as overseas. If interested contact me at thomasfgiella@... .

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#198 Issued Wednesday July 18, 2018 at 1430 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 71.2 71.2 71.2

There had been 12 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been (((((21))))) days consecutively with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 108 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing (geo effective) sunspot group(s).

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 3 3 1 1 1 0 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 428 & 323 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 18, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 19, 2018- steady then minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 20, 2018- minor deterioration.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +5 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 5 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S4-5 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S2-4 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Just an FYI, I have a Kenwood R-2000 receiver for sale. It’s in good condition and I’m asking $225 including shipping to the lower 48 states. For AK and HI it’s actual shipping cost, as well as overseas. If interested contact me at thomasfgiella@... .

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#197 Issued Tuesday July 17, 2018 at 1530 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 71.7 71.9 72.1

There had been 11 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 20 days consecutively with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 107 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing (geo effective) sunspot group(s).

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 2 3 2 2 2 3 3.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 440 & 315 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 17, 2018- minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 18, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 19, 2018- improvement.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +5 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 5 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S4-5 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S2-4 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Just an FYI, I have a Kenwood R-2000 receiver for sale. It’s in good condition and I’m asking $225 including shipping to the lower 48 states. For AK and HI it’s actual shipping cost, as well as overseas. If interested contact me at thomasfgiella@... .

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#196 Issued Monday July 16, 2018 at 1515 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 71.5 71.7 71.1

There had been 10 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 19 days consecutively with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 106 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing (geo effective) sunspot group(s).

An approximate 8 degree long filament erupted along a NE-SW oriented channel centered near N15E44, first observed on GONG imagery at 16/0712 UTC. No associated Earth directed (geoeffective) coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in available satellite imagery.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 360 & 317 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 16, 2018- minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 17, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 18, 2018- improvement.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +5 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 5 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S4-5 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S2-4 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Just an FYI, I have a Kenwood R-2000 receiver for sale. It’s in good condition and I’m asking $225 including shipping to the lower 48 states. For AK and HI it’s actual shipping cost, as well as overseas. If interested contact me at thomasfgiella@... .

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#195 Issued Sunday July 15, 2018 at 1500 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 72.8 72.3 72.3

There had been 9 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 18 days consecutively with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 104 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing (geo effective) sunspot group(s).

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 458 & 353 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 15, 2018- minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 16, 2018- minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 17, 2018- improvement.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +5 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 5 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S4-5 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S2-4 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Just an FYI, I have a Kenwood R-2000 receiver for sale. It’s in good condition and I’m asking $225 including shipping to the lower 48 states. For AK and HI it’s actual shipping cost, as well as overseas. If interested contact me at thomasfgiella@... .

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#194 Issued Saturday July 14, 2018 at 1430 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 72.0 72.5 72.5

There had been 8 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 17 days consecutively with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 104 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing (geo effective) sunspot group(s).

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 491 & 383 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 14, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 15, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 16, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +5 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 5 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S4-5 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S2-4 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

(((((Just an FYI, I have a Kenwood R-2000 receiver for sale. It’s in good condition and I’m asking $225 plus actual shipping cost. Overseas purchasers are welcome. If interested contact me at thomasfgiella@... .)))))

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#193 Issued Friday July 13, 2018 at 1515 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 72.4 72.1 72.1

There had been 7 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 16 days consecutively with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 103 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing (geo effective) sunspot group(s).

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 448 & 338 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 13, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 14, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 15, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +5 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 5 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S4-5 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S2-4 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

(((((Just an FYI, I have a Kenwood R-2000 receiver for sale. It’s in good condition and I’m asking $275 plus actual shipping cost. Overseas purchasers are welcome. If interested contact me at thomasfgiella@... .)))))

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#192 Issued Thursday July 12, 2018 at 1500 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 73.1 73.3 73.1

There had been 6 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 15 days consecutively with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 102 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing (geo effective) sunspot group(s).

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet to unsettled geomagnetic condition of 0 2 3 3 3 2 2 2.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 433 & 311 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 12, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 13, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 14, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +5 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 5 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S4-5 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S2-4 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

(((((Just an FYI, I have a Kenwood R-2000 receiver for sale. It’s in good condition and I’m asking $275 plus actual shipping cost. Overseas purchasers are welcome. If interested contact me at thomasfgiella@... .)))))

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#191 Issued Wednesday July 11, 2018 at 1515 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 71.2 72.1 72.3

There had been 5 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 14 days consecutively with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 101 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing (geo effective) sunspot group(s).

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 353 & 312 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 11, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 12, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 13, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +5 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 5 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S4-5 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S2-4 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#190 Issued Tuesday July 10, 2018 at 1445 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 72.5 72.9 71.8

There had been 4 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 13 days consecutively with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 100 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing (geo effective) sunspot group(s).

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 403 & 326 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 10, 2018- improving.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 11, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 12, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +5 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 5 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S4-5 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S2-4 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#189 Issued Monday July 9, 2018 at 1430 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 71.1 71.6 71.6

There had been 3 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 12 days consecutively with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 99 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing (geo effective) sunspot group(s).

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of

1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 451 & 356 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 9, 2018- improving.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 10, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 11, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ?
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@...

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at



and in my Twitter account at



Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via email. /g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#188 Issued Sunday July 8, 2018 at 1430 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 71.8 72.0 71.9

There had been 2 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI) of 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 11 days consecutively with a daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 98 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was no earth facing (geo effective) sunspot group.

(((((But it appears that we may have a new sunspot group beginning to rise above the eastern limb of the sun.)))))

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition of

2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 476 & 371 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 8, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 9, 2018- minor deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jul 10, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ?
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.