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Z16357 DNA Project Updates

Jared Smith All Messages By This Member #128 Hello R-Z16357 cousins! This list has been inactive for some time, but I'm diving back into research on our tree and have several exciting updates to share. SNP Tree Updates I've published an updated . Please review and make sure that everything is accurate. The time estimates on the chart are VERY rough "eyeball" estimates - these will be updated in the near future after more extensive data analysis. Notable updates from the last year or two: We are now at 27 testers with Big-Y! All but one have tested to Y-111 or higher. Our?tree now has 21 distinct SNP blocks.? The SNP chart highlights the 4 major branches: Z16357 > BY19970 (Smith X 4, Mustapha, Meacham, McBee X 2) Z16357 > Z16343 >?Z16854 (Pillsbury X 2, Hays X 2) Z16357 > Z16343 >?Z17911 > FT94840 (Williams, Davis, Thomas X 2, Martin, Laurie, Phillips X 2, Bennett, McCullers) Z16357 > Z16343 > Z17911 > A11138 (Smith, Hartley X 4) There are 5 new testers on BY19970. The Smith branch is now much better defined, with two McBees forming a new parallel branch. Mustapha likely connects at a very early age (his STRs are rather dissimilar from the Smiths) and is?of North African descent. This is of particular interest to?tracking our ancestral?migration paths! The?FT94840 branch is the best defined on our tree and has several new branches. This branch also has the most candidates for future testing (see below), expansion, and surname groupings. Joel Hartley has done incredible work refining his part of the A11138 branch, having recruited several cousins for testing. Joel writes extensively about his findings on . Robert Casey Z16343 Analysis Robert Casey has conducted an in-depth STR, SNP, aging, and prediction analysis on Z16343 (one of the two major?children of Z16357). You can read his report at? It's quite technical, but the short version is that the Z16343 branch works well for this type of Binary Logistic Regression Model analysis for accurately predicting likely SNP matches. Robert's automated haplogroup chart is at? This uses both STRs and SNPs to estimate connections and time to most recent common ancestors (TMRCA). STR Spreadsheet Update I've updated the based on Robert Casey's work. This is a work in progress! There are two primary tabs, one for Z16343 and one for BY19970. The sheet lists many testers that are very likely to fall within Z16357 that would be great candidates for Big-Y. The Z16343 sheet provides kit match reliability values based on Robert's regression methodology. Unfortunately BY19970 does not qualify for this type of complex analysis, though other types of STR analysis are underway. Web Site Updates I made several other web site updates, including details on the history of Z16357 -? Feedback, corrections, and updates are always welcome! Future Work I will be spending notable time in the coming weeks adding new potential Big-Y testers to the STR sheet and refining the logistical model for comparisons. I'm hopeful that you will help with contacting and recruiting new testers to expand and better define our tree. I will also be conducting an in-depth, updated aging analysis for our branches to give us a better indication of when our Most Recent Common Ancestors (MRCA) lived. I'd be happy to hear any news any of you have on the DNA genealogy front. Feel free to invite any others to this mailing list that may be interested, especially any Y-DNA or Big-Y matches. Happy holidays and happy new year! Jared Smith R-Z16357 DNA Project Administrator
Joel Hartley All Messages By This Member #129 开云体育 Thanks, Jared, ? Yes, a lot of exciting things are going on. I have recruited two Hartleys to do a BigY. Also I notice that one of those recruits who is Lawrence Hartley matches a Mawdsley who has apparently also signed up for the BigY 700 test. The result of all these tests will be a YDNA tree which will show how our branch of the YDNA tree is related to each other before the time we are able to figure out by genealogy. ? I have written a lot of DNA and genealogy blogs on different branches of my ancestors. The ones I have written on Hartley YDNA should be listed here: ? ? Joel Hartley Massachusett ? ? ? toggle quoted message Show quoted text From: [email protected] <[email protected]> On Behalf Of Jared Smith Sent: Wednesday, December 29, 2021 11:04 AM To: [email protected] Subject: [Z16357] Z16357 DNA Project Updates ? Hello R-Z16357 cousins! This list has been inactive for some time, but I'm diving back into research on our tree and have several exciting updates to share. ? SNP Tree Updates I've published an updated . Please review and make sure that everything is accurate. The time estimates on the chart are VERY rough "eyeball" estimates - these will be updated in the near future after more extensive data analysis. ? Notable updates from the last year or two: We are now at 27 testers with Big-Y! All but one have tested to Y-111 or higher. Our?tree now has 21 distinct SNP blocks.? The SNP chart highlights the 4 major branches: Z16357 > BY19970 (Smith X 4, Mustapha, Meacham, McBee X 2) Z16357 > Z16343 >?Z16854 (Pillsbury X 2, Hays X 2) Z16357 > Z16343 >?Z17911 > FT94840 (Williams, Davis, Thomas X 2, Martin, Laurie, Phillips X 2, Bennett, McCullers) Z16357 > Z16343 > Z17911 > A11138 (Smith, Hartley X 4) There are 5 new testers on BY19970. The Smith branch is now much better defined, with two McBees forming a new parallel branch. Mustapha likely connects at a very early age (his STRs are rather dissimilar from the Smiths) and is?of North African descent. This is of particular interest to?tracking our ancestral?migration paths! The?FT94840 branch is the best defined on our tree and has several new branches. This branch also has the most candidates for future testing (see below), expansion, and surname groupings. Joel Hartley has done incredible work refining his part of the A11138 branch, having recruited several cousins for testing. Joel writes extensively about his findings on . Robert Casey Z16343 Analysis Robert Casey has conducted an in-depth STR, SNP, aging, and prediction analysis on Z16343 (one of the two major?children of Z16357). You can read his report at? ? It's quite technical, but the short version is that the Z16343 branch works well for this type of Binary Logistic Regression Model analysis for accurately predicting likely SNP matches. Robert's automated haplogroup chart is at? This uses both STRs and SNPs to estimate connections and time to most recent common ancestors (TMRCA). ? STR Spreadsheet Update I've updated the based on Robert Casey's work. This is a work in progress! ? There are two primary tabs, one for Z16343 and one for BY19970. The sheet lists many testers that are very likely to fall within Z16357 that would be great candidates for Big-Y. The Z16343 sheet provides kit match reliability values based on Robert's regression methodology. Unfortunately BY19970 does not qualify for this type of complex analysis, though other types of STR analysis are underway. ? Web Site Updates I made several other web site updates, including details on the history of Z16357 -? Feedback, corrections, and updates are always welcome! Future Work I will be spending notable time in the coming weeks adding new potential Big-Y testers to the STR sheet and refining the logistical model for comparisons. I'm hopeful that you will help with contacting and recruiting new testers to expand and better define our tree. I will also be conducting an in-depth, updated aging analysis for our branches to give us a better indication of when our Most Recent Common Ancestors (MRCA) lived. I'd be happy to hear any news any of you have on the DNA genealogy front. Feel free to invite any others to this mailing list that may be interested, especially any Y-DNA or Big-Y matches. Happy holidays and happy new year! ? Jared Smith R-Z16357 DNA Project Administrator ?

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