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From: Joey Fowler <joey.fowler@...> Sent: Monday, April 7, 2025 3:01 AM To: Severe Wx <Severeweather@...> Subject: Fwd: [Briefing #5] Severe Weather & Low-End Flash Flood Threats Continue Today Good morning, Bottom Line: The severe weather threat continues today across southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. A low-end flash flood threat also continues as the line of storms slowly moves eastward. Dangerous beach conditions remain along all beaches Severe Weather Threat: A line of thunderstorms will slowly move through the area today along a cold front. The line of storms may weaken a bit near sunrise, but it is expected to stall briefly and re-intensify this morning near the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers. Damaging winds and brief tornadoes will be the primary severe weather concerns. The Storm Prediction Center continues a Marginal to Slight Risk (level 1-2 of 5) for most of the area with the higher threat mostly over our Georgia and FL Big Bend counties. Given the slow movement and reorganization of storms, timing is a bit difficult to pin down. Generally: Central Time Zone counties (except Gulf County): through 10 AM CT. Southwest Georgia & western Big Bend and Gulf County: 10 AM to 4 PM ET. I-75 Corridor and the Suwannee Valley: 2 PM to 8 PM ET. Note that moderate rain with some embedded non-severe storms will continue for several hours behind the main line of storms. Flash Flood Threat: The heaviest rainfall this morning will continue over southeast Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle where another 1-2 inches of rain is expected. Farther east, as the line stalls and reorganizes near the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers, another area of locally heavy rainfall is possible. This area could see 2-3 inches of rain, which if it falls in a short period of time, could lead to a localized flash flood threat. Widespread moderate rain will likely continue for several hours after the main line of storms passes. Dangerous Beach Conditions: While winds will be a bit lighter today, the rip current risk remains high along all of our beaches as it will take time for the surf to subside.

From: Joey Fowler <joey.fowler@...> Sent: Sunday, April 6, 2025 5:35 AM To: Severe Wx <Severeweather@...> Subject: Fwd: [Briefing #4] Severe Weather & Locally Heavy Rain Possible Today through Monday Good morning, Bottom Line: Strong to severe storms are possible in two rounds. Round 1: scattered strong storms this afternoon mostly in southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Round 2: a line of storms that will move through the area beginning overnight tonight and exiting Monday evening Locally heavy rainfall is possible, especially over southeast Alabama. Gusty winds outside of thunderstorms today with gusts of 25-35 mph. Dangerous beach conditions continue with high surf and localized minor beach erosion possible. Severe Weather Potential: A cold front moves into southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle tonight and slowly moves through the area during the day Monday. Ahead of the front this afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop mostly across the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama. Some of these storms could become strong to briefly severe with damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two. Along the cold front, a line of thunderstorms move into southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle late tonight. This line may weaken somewhat overnight before re-intensifying Monday morning over south Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. Damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes are main threats with the line of storms. Most of the forecast area is now in a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5) by the Storm Prediction Center between today and Monday. Heavy Rain Potential: Some guidance suggests that a band of heavy rain will develop somewhere over south central Alabama to west central Georgia. While it appears most likely that this stays just north of our area, there is a low chance that this shifts southward into parts of southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Most likely rainfall totals across the area are 1-2 inches, with up to 3 inches in southeast Alabama. The reasonable worst case (10% of seeing these totals or higher) is about 4 to 6 inches from Coffee County, AL to Randolph County, GA. If these high-end totals happen, then the threat for flash flooding will increase. Other Hazards: Gusty winds are expected across the area this afternoon outside of thunderstorms. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected. This will likely fall just short of our Wind Advisory threshold (40 mph gusts). Dangerous beach conditions continue along all beaches. The strong winds will cause surf to build a bit more, and a High Surf Advisory is now in effect for the Walton and Bay County beaches. Surf up to 6 feet and localized minor beach erosion are possible. A high risk of rip currents continues for all beaches for the next few days.

Begin forwarded message: From: Joey Fowler <joey.fowler@...> Date: April 4, 2025 at 8:02:51 AM EDT To: Severe Wx <Severeweather@...> Subject: Fwd: [Briefing] Severe Weather Threat Sunday, Dangerous Beach Conditions Next Several Days ? Good morning, Bottom Line: Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon through Monday morning across the area. Overview: Showers and thunderstorms will develop over southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Sunday afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. The storms will slowly move eastward across the area Sunday night into Monday morning. There are still uncertainties in exact timing, but this will be a slower moving system than the last system. We will refine timing in the next day or so. The main threat is damaging wind gusts, though a couple brief tornadoes are possible. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas west of a line from Albany to Apalachicola in a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5) with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) east of that line. Additionally, dangerous beach conditions are expected over the next several days, even while the weather is nice. Rough surf and dangerous rip currents will continue through the weekend along all the beaches.

Begin forwarded message: From: Joey Fowler <joey.fowler@...> Date: April 3, 2025 at 7:46:41 AM EDT To: Severe Wx <Severeweather@...> Subject: Fwd: [Briefing #1] Severe Weather Possible Sunday ? Good Morning, Most of the region is under a risk of severe thunderstorms on Sunday, April 6. The probability range in the outlook corresponds with a Slight Risk, or Level 2 of 5. The timing appears to be a Sunday afternoon through Sunday night event, although significant timing adjustments are still possible. Currently, the main risk appears to be isolated to scattered instances of damaging wind gusts. The tornado risk looks low at this time, but changes can occur as we draw closer to the event. A graphic is attached depicting the risk area. Check back in the days ahead as we become able to better resolve details such as timing, severe mode, strength, etc. For now, make sure your plans on Sunday and Sunday night include a severe weather contingency.

From: Joey Fowler <joey.fowler@...> Sent: Monday, March 31, 2025 3:05 AM To: Severe Wx <Severeweather@...> Subject: Fwd: [Briefing #6] Enhanced Risk of Severe Storm Today for Most of the Area Good Morning, The SPC has maintained an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for today across most of the area. Meanwhile, a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms remains for the southeast big bend of Florida. The main hazard is scattered to numerous instances of damaging wind gusts impacting trees and power lines across the region as a squall line moves through. However, a couple of tornadoes are also possible along with isolated large hail. The latest timing graphic is attached. There are no significant changes in the timing forecast compared to yesterday. The most likely time of arrival for our Central time zone counties is 11am-2pm CDT with it most likely to arrive between 3pm-6pm EDT for areas like Tallahassee, Tifton, Apalachicola, and Albany. If the line is able to hold together, then it is forecast to be moving through the southeast Florida Big Bend between 5-8pm EDT. Make sure your plans today include a severe weather contingency. Severe thunderstorm or tornado watches are possible later this morning.

From: Joey Fowler <joey.fowler@...> Sent: Sunday, March 30, 2025 4:55 AM To: Severe Wx <Severeweather@...> Subject: Fwd: [Briefing #5] Severe Storm Risk Increasing for Monday Good Morning, The SPC has upgraded a large portion of our area to an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) of severe thunderstorms on Monday. Meanwhile, a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms remains for most coastal areas of the Florida panhandle and big bend. The main hazard is scattered to numerous instances of damaging wind gusts impacting trees and power lines across the region as a squall line moves through. However, a few tornadoes are also possible along with large hail. The timing appears to be a late morning through early afternoon event for portions of southeast Alabama and adjacent southwest Georgia, and an early afternoon through early evening event for the remainder of southwest Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and Florida big bend. However, this timing could still shift around by a few hours, and more specific timing information and graphics will be available later this afternoon as additional model data becomes available. Stay tuned for additional details with an updated outlook later this afternoon. Make sure your plans on Monday include a severe weather contingency.

From: Joey Fowler <joey.fowler@...> Sent: Saturday, March 29, 2025 4:56 AM To: Severe Wx <Severeweather@...> Subject: Fwd: [Briefing #4] Severe Thunderstorms Remain Possible on Monday Good Morning, A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms exists across much of the region on Monday, March 31, with a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across the southeast big bend. The main hazards are damaging wind gusts and large hail, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible. The timing appears to be a late morning through early afternoon event for portions of southeast Alabama and adjacent southwest Georgia, and an early afternoon through early evening event for the remainder of southwest Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and Florida big bend. A cold front sweeping in from the northwest on Monday will likely come with a line or perhaps a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms. Continue to check back in the days ahead as we resolve more details on timing, severe mode, strength, etc. For now, make sure your plans on Monday include a severe weather contingency.

From: Joey Fowler <joey.fowler@...> Sent: Wednesday, March 26, 2025 3:23 AM To: Severe Wx <Severeweather@...> Subject: Fwd: [Briefing #1] Heads up for possible severe storms on Monday, 3/31 Good Wednesday morning, This is a short heads-up email regarding Monday, March 31. Today's Day 6 convective outlook highlights our entire service area in the 15-29 percent risk area for severe weather, meaning there is a 15-29 percent chance of severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any given place on Monday and/or Monday night. This typically corresponds with a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms.