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Michael Guerin: El Vencedor Back on Track for Showdown at Sha Tin Michael Guerin ? April 22nd, 2025 11:50 AM ? 3 min read El Vencedor arriving in Hong Kong ahead of the HK$ 28 million FWD QEII Cup at Sha Tin on Sunday | Photo courtesy of Hong Kong Jockey Club New Zealand’s highest-rated racehorse, El Vencedor, appears to have overcome a speed bump on the road to the richest race of his career on Sunday. The Stephen Marsh-trained galloper, winner of his last three Group 1s here, is in Hong Kong to contest the HK$ 28 million FWD QEII Cup at Sha Tin on Sunday. But while the big horse travelled well, he suffered a minor setback over the weekend, which Marsh is confident is now behind him. “He had a slight issue with a hind hoof,” Marsh told the Herald from Hong Kong. “He had like an abscess blowout, and it meant we had to take the shoe off and poultice it to get the heat out. “While it wasn’t that serious, it still wasn’t looking great on Sunday because we have to gallop him this week to have him ready for the race, and I was initially concerned just in case the hoof didn’t improve enough for us to do that. “But thankfully, the last 24 hours have seen enormous improvement.” The hoof had improved enough for El Vencedor to jog on a treadmill on Monday morning before doing easy pacework, before Hong Kong Jockey Club veterinarians trotting him up, and he was perfectly sound. “The club has been great to deal with,” says Marsh. “We have had as much help as we could need from farriers and vets, so he has been looked after well. “So we are back on track now, which means a little re-jigging of his schedule this week.” El Vencedor was to have galloped twice this week but will now do one piece of faster work on Thursday morning, which the Cambridge trainer is comfortable with. “We are lucky he was very fit before we sent him here. “He had those three Group 1s in a month in February and March and then had a trial at Ellerslie and an exhibition gallop at Te Rapa. “So I am pretty confident a good blow on Thursday will bring him on, and we will have him right for Sunday. “One of the great things is he is a hardened campaigner who has been around, and it is not like he is a young three-year-old learning the ropes. “He is used to going to work and getting on with it.” El Vencedor will have champion Hong Kong jockey Zac Purton aboard on Sunday and meets a strong International field, even if local hero Romantic Warrior won’t be in the 2000m Group 1. The two Japanese-trained horses who finished second to Romantic Warrior in the Hong Kong Cup in December, Liberty Island and Tastiera, will be among El Vencedor’s rivals on Sunday, as will outstanding French galloper Goliath and Hong Kong Derby winner Cap Ferrat. Goliath won one of England’s great races, the King George IV and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot last July, beating among others Bluestocking, Rebels Romance and Dubai Honour, whose recent Sydney form is vastly superior to anything El Vencedor has competed against. “We know it isn’t going to be easy, but it is a huge thrill to give him his opportunity, and he has earned his right to be here,” says Marsh. While El Vencedor is the only New Zealand-trained horse at Sunday’s huge meeting, the Kiwi flag will still be flown high by Mr Brightside in the Champions Mile while former NZ galloper Ka Ying Rising is red hot to win the Chairman’s Sprint. Ex-pat superstar jockey James McDonald will ride at the meeting, including favourite Voyage Bubble in the Mile.

NZTR Announces Boost to Jumps Racing Stakes New Zealand Thoroughbred Racing (NZTR) has announced several enhancements to the prize money for jumps racing, including immediate increases covering the remainder of the current season (May to July 2025) and the 2025-26 racing calendar. NZTR’s total investment across 18 meetings and 57 jump races will reach approximately $2.57 million over this period. The increases highlight NZTR's ongoing commitment to the development and promotion of jumps racing throughout the country. Highlights of the revised stakes include: Uplift in stakes for Feature Steeplechases across the season, with increases ranging from $15,000 to $50,000 per race. Restricted Open Jump Races stakes boosted from $30,000 to $40,000. In cases where these races are split into separate events for winners and maidens, winners will compete for $40,000, while maidens will race for $20,000. The Racecourse Hotel & Motor Lodge 150th Grand National Steeplechase at Riccarton Park on Saturday, 9 August celebrates its 150th renewal this year, with the Canterbury Jockey Club set to announce a further stakes increase to this race in the coming weeks. These new stakes enhancements complement previously announced strategic initiatives, which include: A shortened jump racing season comprising 18 racing days, from 11 May to 21 September 2025, concluding with an exciting two-day event at Te Aroha. A strategic shift towards non-Saturday racing days, with nine of the 18 Jumps racing days scheduled for Sundays, with King's Birthday Monday and a feature Friday meeting on 19 September for the Great Northern Hurdle. Streamlining of venues to improve infrastructure, reducing host venues from previous seasons to seven locations. Jumps racing will no longer be held at Rotorua or Waverley this season. The introduction of the Amateur Series, primarily held at jumps meetings, concluding with the prestigious Duke of Gloucester Cup on 19 September at Te Aroha. NZTR Chief Operating Officer Darin Balcombe commented, “These enhancements deliver immediate benefits for participants this season while supporting the ongoing development of Jumps racing.” “Following our strategic review last year, we’re focused on improving the experience for participants and fans as we head into next season,” he said.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/119832405/fishing-influence-trawls-deep-into-nz-firsts-past Stuff Think this says it all.

Following Tuesday's abandonment of the Taupo Trials, New Zealand Thoroughbred Racing (NZTR) acknowledges the frustration caused and accepts that the outcome did not meet industry expectations. NZTR worked with the Taupō Racing Club to identify what went wrong on the day, with findings to inform improved processes in the future. Taupō Racing Club President Terry Campbell said, “The Club would like to apologise to the racing industry for the cancellation of Tuesday’s trials.” “We have identified the issues and will ensure they are addressed ahead of any future meetings,” he said. The assessment found that the Track Manager, who is relatively inexperienced, did not receive the level of support and oversight needed to prepare the track. NZTR also identified gaps in its processes, which failed to provide the Club with adequate operational guidance in the lead-up to the meeting. Issues with rail placement, grass length, and irrigation planning contributed to the decision to abandon. These areas require specialist knowledge and closer coordination between Clubs and NZTR. While it is encouraging to see new Racecourse Managers coming into the system, consistent national training and induction processes are lacking. The current reliance on individual Clubs to manage onboarding has led to varying standards. To address this, NZTR will: Increase the involvement of Regional Track Advisors in mentoring new Racecourse Managers; Provide Advisors with more time, tools, and resources to support Clubs on-site; Establish a working group of Club representatives, Regional Advisors and NZTR staff to strengthen national processes and share best practices. NZTR Chief Operating Officer Darin Balcombe said, “New Racecourse Managers are difficult to find, and we must provide them with stronger induction, training, and support systems.” “Preparing track surfaces for racing is a specialised skill that comes only with experience, support and proper training,” he said. NZTR accepts that earlier involvement may have avoided the Taupō outcome. Work is already underway to strengthen support, oversight and accountability across the tracks and infrastructure network. NZTR is actively undertaking a full formal review with the Taupō Racing Club and Track Advisors and will share the findings as soon as possible.

Hi folks I've attached the Stewards' report for Champions Day @ Elle. It's well worth reading, along with your video analysis. It was a great day's racing with some superb efforts ... And some not-so-much... Noteworthy is that LEGARTO suffered cardiac arrhythmia, so her run was great under that scenario ... Times were slow in general, as previously. ATR are working on having the track rated GOOD4 at the start of racing, so some further "turf" remedial work is required ... Then there's that negative camber around the home bend ... or is that just me? Ellerslie, being a "horses-for-courses" surface, is still loitering in my grey matter ... Even more so on this StrathAyr surface versus normal "turf." Regards Neil

https://www.racing.com/news/2025-02-27/news-trainers-racing-mourning-mike-moroney steve b

It's becoming a recurring theme on this new surface ... Slow tempo in general; stack them up at the 600m, & sprint home. It appears jockeys are reluctant to move wide around the home bend & are awaiting the home stretch to make their runs ... mostly to no avail. Have they got the camber correct? However, the race tempos are also to blame. As you can see below the horse who ran last in the 2100m Benchmark Rating 65 ran a faster time ... (2.64 secs!!!) than the Aussie DOCTOROFLOVE when winning the Guineas. The Avondale Cup was also run at a ridiculous pace. Rant over ... Neil

This topic was covered previously and mentioned the sad history of government collusion with industry groups in creating monopolies and duopolies and the hypocrisy and potential for corruption in the the countries political establishment and its cronies. . https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/racing-bill-under-scrutiny-tab-nz-could-become-sole-online-betting-operator-the-front-page/VBZ5LEUS3FFJRKDTBNSVRFQROQ/

So the Wairoa Cup ... Wairoa > Hastings > Tauherenikau > Wanganui ... Maybe it'll be run @Riccarton nek season ... Neil Tauherenikau Racemeeting Cancelled The Racemeeting scheduled for Tauherenikau on Sunday 16 February has been cancelled due to a lack of entries. An Open 2040m race for $35,000 has been added to the Wanganui meeting on Friday 21 February as a 9th race. This race was originally The Wairoa Cup (with club-added money). NZTR will look to divide a race(s) at Wanganui and/or Otaki if numbers permit.

Hi Brian General consensus is that Australia and/or Hong Kong ratings/selections should be placed on a separate tab rather than the NZ tabs. Or at the very least kept to each person's own column ... Thanks in advance. Regards, Neil

12.30 pm Scratching Time for Ellerslie A reminder that with tomorrow’s Ellerslie meeting having a post 4 pm first race the final scratching time will be with The Bureau at 12.30 pm ... Regards Neil

NEIL, your selections appear to be protected so I cannot colour them when your selection wins. I don't know what to do about this. I don't want to interfere as you must have god reasons for this. Cheers Dene

Weather may decide TAB Telegraph outcome 03 January, 2025 ? 10:29 AM Michael Guerin @GuerinSports The weather could decide one of New Zealand’s races of the season at Trentham tomorrow but in-form trainers Lance O’Sullivan and Andrew Scott think they have both scenarios covered. The $550,000 TAB Telegraph has been brought forward to tomorrow, a couple of weeks earlier than it used to be, because our other great January sprint, the Railway, was moved from New Year’s Day to the Karaka Millions meeting on January 25. The change hasn’t dented the quality of the Telegraph field though with it containing all of our best older sprinters, only missing 3-year-olds Alabama Lass and Captured By Love who are likely to join tomorrow’s stars in the Railway. The Telegraph contains six Group 1 winners and others like Babylon Berlin and even Master Fay who have raced at the highest level in Australia, while in Luberon it has an enormously talented emerging sprinter. With so little between the big players, who gets the right, clear run through the Trentham dogleg will be crucial as the Telegraph is not only usually lightning fast but almost always sees some crowding and hard-luck stories. But just as important may be the weather, with the reports more volatile than the sprinters themselves. Trentham has been rated a Soft 7 for much of this week and at one stage was forecast to get 60ml of rain tomorrow morning, which would turn the track heavy - but that was scaled down to 10ml in last night’s forecast. “It is really frustrating because for all of our recent meetings it has been forecast for heavy rain on the day and it hasn’t eventuated,” says Race general manager of racing Brad Taylor. “The track is a Soft 6 today [Thursday] and it could be anything from a Good 4 to Heavy if we got all that rain that was initially forecast.” So smart punters will wait to see how tomorrow’s track comes up and perhaps even more importantly if there is rain during the meeting, which causes the most dramatic changes in track conditions. Whatever the conditions, the O’Sullivan/Scott team looks certain to play a huge hand as they have Grail Seeker fresh up from winning the Tarzino Trophy in September and last season’s Railway winner Waitak nearing his best form again. “Grail Seeker has been trialling and working enormous,” says Scott. “I know she has won the Guineas here on a Soft 7 but we think her best chance this week is on a better track. “She is so brilliant so she is our best hope if the track comes up good but if the track cuts out of a bit or gets wetter then we think Waitak might be the better chance. “He obviously has good form on soft tracks, but we think he would handle a wetter track better than many of his opposition.” There is a huge gap in the pair’s price, with Grail Seeker opening $5 with the bookies while Waitak was out to $10 last night but ultimately tomorrow’s track conditions will be the major factor in the final market. Luberon has been the find of the spring sprints but would seem to prefer a drier track and is not ideally placed at weight-for-age if she is to continue a wonderful season for Cambridge Stud race mares. Skew Wiff is one of the proven Group 1 mares in the race but hasn’t been quite as potent over 1200m as 1400m, albeit the tough Trentham 1200m can race more like a 1400m. Babylon Berlin is the other way, a straight-out sprinting speed machine but you get the feeling she could be vulnerable late. Bonny Lass has been racing a length below her imperious peak of last season, but the sprinting ranks are also stronger this season. Defending champion Mercurial is long odds this year and that leaves Crocetti as the question-mark horse of the Telegraph, good enough to win but maybe in that middle ground where 1400m is his best distance. A long strider, the big track should suit him, and he could easily win if he can get into a rhythm from the tricky ace draw. While the weather confuses the Telegraph, it is a case of wetter the better for staying mare Sassy Lass as she gives the O’Sullivan/Scott team their opening shot at a feature

Here’s wishing you all a successful and Merry Xmas and Happy Punting for the New Year! Todays see two SOFT tracks and one HEAVY. The early races on the HEAVY should be okay for punting but experience shows that HEAVY is not a reliable surface for horses and we see many outsiders in these races. SOFT is not a wonderful medium for punting either but it should be okay this time of year and should see good racing and some reliable punting. My ratings traditionally do well in the Xmas season, both 1st and 2nd rated runners producing many winners. In some races my top selections are definitely the best choices and should be the favourites but there’s a handful of races where there’s good arguments for lesser runners. Use good sense when choosing when to bet and which horses to bet and you should do just fine today. Over time I make minor adjustments to my ratings to make them perform better. I cannot see how one can do better than what I offer but I acknowledge that our other selectors also make excellent contributions to the winners table. These efforts cost a lot of time and hours and hours of thinking. Planning and testing, often running multiple PC’s testing out alternate formulas and sself-designed neural nets. My younger brother also contributes his thinking and skills with fuzzy logic and AI analysis. He also provides the data strippers I use to gather my data amd results. SO I must acknowledge his efforts too as I wouldn’t have been able to operate without all of his time and effort. I would like to especially thank NEIL for all his tireless efforts. Without him our forum may well have died long ago. Thanks also go to BRIAN and DAVE. They are regular contributors and produce many winners for us all. A reminder that it’s DAVE’S birthday on 4 Jan 2025. Here’s wishing you a very Happy Birthday in advance DAVE! Cheers and best of luck today! Dene

Sistema Railway indicative weights #Amended *** Please note previous indicative weights had not included a 3yo allowance for SWP. Significant interest has been expressed in the indicative weights for one of New Zealand’s elite sprinting contests, the Sistema Railway (Group 1), SW&P, $700,000. The Sistema Railway has moved from its traditional New Year’s Day date to the Karaka Million race day, with the race day also announced as a World Pool event. The World Pool showcases great race days worldwide and allows punters to bet into mammoth, internationally commingled totalisator pools. The World Pool is an excellent revenue stream for the industry. The Sistema Railway is weighted under Set Weights and Penalties conditions, as set out in Standard Regulations 8.7. TAB has opened a Pre-Noms market for the race. We have used their market to provide an indication of weights. These can change with future black-type wins. Waitak 58 Mercurial 58 Crocetti 56.5 Move To Strike 54.5 Legarto 56 Bonny Lass 56 Sacred Satono 56 Skew Wiff 56 Master Fay 56 Pendragon 56 Mystic Park 55.5 Luberon 55 Uncommon James 55 Shamus 55 Pericles 55 Super Photon 53 Twain 55 Mr Jay Eight 55 Captured By Love 52.5 Velocious 52.5 Alabama Lass 52 Babylon Berlin 54 Maria Farina 54 Karman Line 54 Illicit Dreams 53.5 Express Yourself 53 Malt Time 53 Merchant Queen 53 Petrucci 53

Greyhound racing to be banned in NZ ... 20-month transition period ... Neil