To all:
This time/SNP thing intrigues me greatly (as I assume it does others). Let¡¯s do a little kindergarden math:
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Elizabeth notes that James has?CTS4466 formed 3,000 ybp and its¡¯ TMRCA at 1,700 ybp.
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There are 20 SNPs in the CYS4466 block making the time between forming and the TMRCA yield an average SNP rate of (3000-1700)/20 = 65 yrs/SNP.
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There are two Lee¡¯s near me who, with their 2 private variants, are some 37 SNPs below CTS4466¡¯s TMRCA. If we assume that this takes us all the way to the ¡®present¡¯, then using James¡¯s value of 1700 ybp for that time frame, we get another estimate: 1700/37 = 45.9 yrs/SNP. Of course, the two Lee¡¯s likely do not lead us up to the present; there are more SNPs to be discovered, thus making the ¡¯37¡¯ larger and the yrs/SNP smaller.
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Then if we do these together, we get 3000/57 = 52.6 yrs/SNP. And that¡¯s a max number. So 50 yrs/SNP is perhaps a better guess.
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Comments?????
¡ª joe
