Hello all,
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As many of you are aware, there is a possibility of a meteor ouburst from shattered comet 73P/Schwassman-Wachmann 3 tomorrow night! ?Earth may encounter the 1995 dust trail from 73P at a miss-distance of only 0.0004 AU near 5UT! ?It it widely believed that the 1995 trail is richly populated in dust due to 73’s catastrophic break up. ?The outburst could be anywhere from a weak 12 meteors per hour (ZHR) to a staggering 1,000+ per hour meteor storm! ?The level of the outburst is unknown - this will be Earth’s first encounter with the 1995 dust trail. ?The caveat is that a strong outburst can only occur if the dust particles were ejected from 73P at a sufficiently high velocity, and ALSO ahead of the comet. ?Meteor dynamicists cannot confirm this, but this appears to be realistic/possible. ?The most likely time of outburst, if one is to occur, is May 30/31 at around 0500 UT (1 a.m. EDT on the 31st, or?10 p.m. PDT on the 30th).
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Here’s are the main points to keep in mind:
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- On the night of May 30 into the early morning of May 31, Earth will pass through the debris trails of a broken comet called 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann, or SW3.
- The comet, which broke into large fragments back in 1995, won’t reach this point in its orbit until August.
- If the fragments from were ejected with speeds greater than twice the normal speeds—fast enough to reach Earth—we might get a meteor shower.
- Spitzer observations published in 2009 indicate that at least some fragments are moving fast enough. This is one reason why astronomers are excited.
- If a meteor shower does occur, the tau Herculids move slowly by meteor standards – they will be faint. ?Some meteor dynamicists predict that the opposite will occur and that the meteors will be on the bright side. ?So who knows???
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Here’s a talk that I did at a recent RASC Ottawa meeting, about the Tau Herculids that I invite you to watch. ?I talk about 73P’s disintegration, the discovery of the Tau Herculids, the predictions from the meteor dynamicists, and the observing details:
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Here are links to read more, or to watch live online if it gets too cloudy:
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Let’s all hope for clear skies to view this potentially very interesting event!!! ?This potential meteor shower is one that I’ve been looking forward to for many years! ?This is a unique case where we can see what happens to the dust trail of fragmenting comet. ?The ingredients are there for a meteor storm — but will all the ingredients merge? ? Even though there is a good chance that it won’t materialize, and maybe very little or nothing will be seen, this is the best known chance at seeing a very significant display for the next several years. ?If you can, travel to the darkest possible sky site as the display might consist of faint meteors. ?Plan to be out and ready for anything to happen! ?This is what makes meteor showers so interesting! ?If nothing much happens, enjoy a nice night out observing or imaging. ?It is New Moon after all :) ?If something spectacular happens, well, it could be something truly memorable!
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Clear skies,
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Pierre Martin
Ottawa, Ontario
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