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Wild weather?

 

Arrgh. Reading these posts is freaking me out. I canceled my backcountry trip and reserved two weeks of car camping and day hiking, starting 8/25, between Lundy and Big Pine (7 different locations). That's still nine days away. What is going on that is bringing on such dire and long lasting predictions?
I know the pictures I have seen from the backcountry lately have had a lot of heavy clouds. Here in the high desert near Victorville we are having monsoon season with lots of clouds and wind and some rain. Not unusual for August here. We had nine serious rainstorms in monsoon season August 2022.
Our day hike mileage range is not great, so I don't expect to get up to 10K more than a few times.
Am I in for a miserable trip? What's up?
Marion Davison
 

I think the most immediate concern is Hilary, a hurricane off Baja. It is expected to weaken but the remnants will pass over CA starting this weekend and bring lots of rain and wind.

Frank

On 8/16/2023 6:04 PM, Marion Davison wrote:
Arrgh. Reading these posts is freaking me out.? I canceled my backcountry trip and reserved two weeks of car camping and day hiking, starting 8/25, between Lundy and Big Pine (7 different locations). That's still nine days away.? What is going on that is bringing on such dire and long lasting predictions?
I know the pictures I have seen from the backcountry lately have had a lot of heavy clouds.? Here in the high desert near Victorville we are having monsoon season with lots of clouds and wind and some rain.? Not unusual for August here.? We had nine serious rainstorms in monsoon season August 2022.
Our day hike mileage range is not great, so I don't expect to get up to 10K more than a few times.
Am I in for a miserable trip?? What's up?
Marion Davison




--
Frank
 

Thanks, Frank. I just looked up Hilary and got the news. Our local forecast shows rain over the weekend, clearing by middle of next week. So maybe the worst will be over when our trip begins. I will keep watching the forecasts. I usually use Mammoth Lakes forecast as a guide since it is central to the area we will be traveling.
Marion
 

This video (shared in another thread) explains what’s going on.



You may be ok. You can wait and watch. I’m right in the middle of this so I canceled.

On Aug 16, 2023, at 6:15 PM, Marion Davison <mardav@...> wrote:

?Thanks, Frank. I just looked up Hilary and got the news. Our local forecast shows rain over the weekend, clearing by middle of next week. So maybe the worst will be over when our trip begins. I will keep watching the forecasts. I usually use Mammoth Lakes forecast as a guide since it is central to the area we will be traveling.
Marion
 

I hiked Tuolomne to the valley 8/11-8/16. Weather was monsoonal with t storms in the afternoon getting progressively worse. Not terrible, but a little concerning at times. We got chased off clouds rest at noon. I was going to do a fast hike back to the car in Toulomne 16-17 but took Yarts instead. Looked pretty miserable and stormy. Definitely deteriorating. Conditions similar but less so on the ride N 395 up to Reno. On the plus side mosquito pressure was moderate to none depending on location and trails were dry. Nice flowers still. Very few people in the high country.

On Aug 16, 2023, at 6:48 PM, Anand Kumar Sankaran <anand.sankaran@...> wrote:

?This video (shared in another thread) explains what’s going on.



You may be ok. You can wait and watch. I’m right in the middle of this so I canceled.
On Aug 16, 2023, at 6:15 PM, Marion Davison <mardav@...> wrote:

?Thanks, Frank. I just looked up Hilary and got the news. Our local forecast shows rain over the weekend, clearing by middle of next week. So maybe the worst will be over when our trip begins. I will keep watching the forecasts. I usually use Mammoth Lakes forecast as a guide since it is central to the area we will be traveling.
Marion
 

Fortunately (or unfortunately), I had to abort my Kennedy Meadows to Mt Whitney hike.

If I hadn't, I likely would have been heading to the west side of Whitney this week and hitting Whitney this weekend.

With the current weather, that's probably for the best that I aborted.

Still sucks, though.
 

Take a look at the timelines and maps at .

It does look like Hilary will be affecting the southern and central Sierras, and some of those affects should give a backpacker pause, at minimum. And maybe concentrate a bit more on their foul-weather gear.

But in the wilderness, peak gusts of 40mph and total rainfall of 1-4 inches might be manageable, as long as the passes and stream crossings aren't overly impacted.

If I was about to start the JMT at Whitney, I'd be worried (although I have a friend who is doing exactly that, starting a 300-mile combo of the JMT plus a portion of the SHR. If I was about to start the JMT at Yosemite, I'd just improve my rain gear a bit and not worry. Last spring I was on a backpacking trip that had falling snow and 50mph gusts, and my only regret is that I hadn't brought googles. Under the treeline we were fine; on exposed areas we had to be careful with pathfinding, since the trail was often hard to spot (but that was mostly due to accumulating snow).
 

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Just getting to the trail may be difficult. Today, Monday Aug 21, highway 395 is closed due to flooding and debris/mud up to Bishop. Lots of roads are closed in Inyo County including Onion Valley and Horseshoe Meadows. Rec.gov sent a closure notice for Onion Valley campground through August 27.

Frank


On 8/21/2023 3:58 PM, Richard wrote:

Take a look at the timelines and maps at .

It does look like Hilary will be affecting the southern and central Sierras, and some of those affects should give a backpacker pause, at minimum. And maybe concentrate a bit more on their foul-weather gear.

But in the wilderness, peak gusts of 40mph and total rainfall of 1-4 inches might be manageable, as long as the passes and stream crossings aren't overly impacted.

If I was about to start the JMT at Whitney, I'd be worried (although I have a friend who is doing exactly that, starting a 300-mile combo of the JMT plus a portion of the SHR. If I was about to start the JMT at Yosemite, I'd just improve my rain gear a bit and not worry. Last spring I was on a backpacking trip that had falling snow and 50mph gusts, and my only regret is that I hadn't brought googles. Under the treeline we were fine; on exposed areas we had to be careful with pathfinding, since the trail was often hard to spot (but that was mostly due to accumulating snow).


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Frank

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