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Ned posted this on one of the facebook group. My comment there is appended at the end of his post.

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For eager-to-start JMT thru-hikers thinking there won't be any snow on the trail and the weather will be perfect now or in May:

Don't enter the Sierra just yet!

I know this post is late, as the storm is nearly upon us (here, in the Sierra), but I've been busy dreaming of and working toward a rebirth of Mountain Education, Inc., for all of you.

Back to the message:

"A Loss of Winter's Flow oft brings Spring Snow!"

This is not a forecast nor a prediction, but what I'm seeing, though bizarre, is typical Sierra weather after drought winters...so be prepared for late season snow this year.

Back in the '80s, we first started getting "drought" or low-snow winters to the extent that ski areas up and down the Sierra had to begin investing in snow-making equipment, if they wanted to stay in business!

That was, coincidentally, when I first started the wilderness school, Mountain Education, to teach you guys and girls to be wilderness-aware and, thus, safer out there. I've spent many a May and June along the PCT/JMT at altitude after drought winters since then and have had snow storms blanket my 4-season tent with 4-inches to 3-feet of the white stuff.

Now, I don't know what is going to happen this year, but what the Jetstream is doing right now, bringing into the West more low pressure systems with varying amounts of moisture, is typical and not unusual. Let me show you,

This year's miserable winter:

December = Major snow

January = Dry

February = Dry (leading LD PCT/JMT hikers into a possible false sense of weather security)

March = the weather door cracked open with a teaser storm or two

April = there could be more teasers or major dumpage! (read on)

A little personal perspective on Sierra weather history (I am not a statistician, so this is from my observations living there since the '60s).

Classically, (prior to the '80s) winter rolled in this kind of monthly pattern:

November = the door cracked open

December = Dumpage

January = commonly dry

February = moderate dumpage

March = moderate dumpage

April = the weather door starts closing

May = further decreased storm frequency and volume

June = Thaw and approach to summer

Takeaway: What I want hikers to see, here, is that the Lion of Winter, typically, came in with a roar, took a nap, woke up and walked around camp with a roar or two, then just to wandered off for the summer.

In essence, that is what has happened this winter, but the guy took a longer nap.

Moral of the story: The old Winter Lion may still have a roar or two left to declare, based on this pattern, so don't enter the Sierra too early (before May) and think that you won't get any rain or snow! Don't be fooled by 3 months of dry weather in the middle of winter. After drought winters, the Sierra can still throw at you plenty of deep snow to pin you down and ruin your plans!

Advice to JMT thru who may have "early" (May-June) start permits:

Don't discredit what could - and has - happened in the past.

Be aware, mindful, of trends (the big picture) in the weather.

Learn to listen to the wilderness. It will tell you what's going to happen because you live with it every day and feel its changes.

Mountain weather can be local (small) or frontal (state-wide) and change on a hour's notice. Always put your senses out before you as you walk along the ascending trail and be aware of air and animal's changes all around you.

Don't let your optimism and enthusiasm blind you to the warning signs. Take this sensory data in daily, compare it to previous days' and grow wiser for it.

Carry what is needed to keep you safe, if the snow-hits-the- fan at altitude while you're far from nearby trailheads!

Never get wet in a cold environment!

It is far wiser over the long walk to stay in your tent for a day or two during bad weather and preserve your precious heat and dryness, than to rush ahead and suffer from the unseen.

Hang onto your microspikes, snow baskets, and SA (self-arrest) tools until 4 weeks past the start of the local Thaw, wherever you are. All it takes is a patch of steep snow to send you into the rocks below!

Remember, snow lingers in the shade and on the north sides of ridges and peaks.

Falls are minimized by increased traction and assured balance (traction devices and poles with snow baskets). Don't leave dry trail without them!

Original post and discussion:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/JohnMuirTrail/posts/10159050589013981/?__cft__[0]=AZUYrN1e9E0ACH0NiTnWWmdQW6QwMcD_66SpZ5waBPvQ4UHZK58FRrWDC3zBJaEBlFPkkRgur8v5Vt1X__tq5GAUwKq77T7jC4eoIg6z6dt3UMDbh3_0c-pEpV6nKvdvo2JcQ_1HEqNNBsz_zAeVmC6N&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R

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My comment there:?

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Thanks, Ned. You are my go-to guy for all things related to the Secret Season (May) and the time when the most hikers come closest to dying (June).?

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Any interest in becoming an unpaid staff contributor to the multi-contributor blog that Teddy Yeh, Charlie Rowan and I are working on?

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A very good heads-up for those folks who were understandably pleased to get their Golden ticket in December for May or in January for June! If people want to head into the Sierra at those usually challenging times need to be prepared mentally and with appropriate gear for what they may well encounter.

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Teddy has piloted a blog-style webpage already and Charlie and I have worked on a set of aspirations for the blog. See https://hikethesierranevada.com/another-hiking-blog/.

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We may start with the Classic discussion threads from the old Yahoo group and edit them down to facilitate quick, informative reads. /g/JMT/search?tag=214153 (membership welcome but not required).

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As usual with JMT hiker groups, we have a lot of potential contributors. Collectively they can offer (1) backcountry wisdom or (2) Survey data analysis and presentation skills, or (3) both.